Another big-ish slate this week, so you will need to plant your flag in places and take some hard lines if you want to do well. Before we get to the games this week, let’s review last week. Afterall, you should get some assurance that this article is worth something
Burnley/Bournemouth – BOU to score 2+ goals. They got shutout 4-0 = LOSS
Crystal Palace/Newcastle– The model had a coin flip on 1.5 goals, which recommended staying away from this match = WIN
Liverpool/Southampton– Liverpool to score 2+ but edge on the under for 2.5goals. = LOSS (I wasn’t a fan of the price tags considering the other value on the slate and recommended looking elsewhere)
Leicester/Huddersfield – Leicester 2+ goals = WIN
Tottenham/Brighton – Tottenham 2+ goals and slight edge for both teams to score = WIN
Remember to check Sniper’s Slide Tackle for some player picks. The odds I will be using will be taken from Ladbrokes.
Huddersfield v Tottenham
We will start with the obvious one. The model is pounding Tot 2+ goals and Huddersfield’s defense has not been a pillar of strength. Keep them in mind when making lineups. I would like a piece of their attack and I will be looking at the attack down the center and from the left side. Eriksen picked up an injury midweek and will miss this game which means either Alli will start centrally or Lamela.
Arsenal v Watford
Watford has quieted some from their pacey start but this is still a dangerous team. The model seems to think so. The model is showing that the books are undervaluing Watford, considerably. The model has this match at a 5% difference in win odds, with the Gunners getting the edge.41 to 36. The book has the Watford win odds at half that. I am not convinced Watford wins but the model likes both teams to score 2+ goals.
Newcastle v Leicester
Newcastle is hella banged-up right now, especially centrally, and that could be a big problem. Leicester should be able to control the midfield in this one. Yet again, the model loves Leicester. It is showing Leicester with 2+ goals.
Chelsea v Liverpool
I wish this game was on at 10 am. There is so much public fodder in this game it’s ridiculous. The model is highlighting a low scoring affair.while the oddsmakers want to believe this goes high. Maybe you can one-off this game, but I’m not going too crazy with it.
Everton v Fulham
I saved this one for last because there is a lot to unpack from the model. It likes both teams to score. Both the books and the model agree there. The game totals are in line with the over on 2.5 goals but the model says the O/U on 3.5 goals is close (52.88% on the under). The model differs in its belief in Fulham. The model likes both teams to score 2+ goals. The model is 17% more confident in fulham to score 2+ than the bookie. The model has 48% chance of 2+ for fulham. Everton is a full go as fulham hasn’t completely figured out defense at this level yet.
Dirty work is now done. Hold court and climb the leaderboards!