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Holding the Midfield – A Deep Dive into Bookmaker’s Odds for EPL Gameweek 6

Big-ish slate this week, so you will need to plant your flag in places and take some hard lines if you want to do well. Before we get to the games this week, let’s review last week. Afterall, you should get some assurance that this article is worth something.

 

Huddersfield/Crystal Palace – Palace to win, Both Teams NOT To Score (BTTS), and slight to the under on 1.5 goals = WIN

 

Newcastle/Arsenal – Arsenal to win = WIN

 

Chelsea/Cardiff – Both Teams NOT To Score = LOSS (the model also wasn’t as strong on Chelsea with 2+ goals but I’m not taking it as a loss as the model still had it more likely than scoring less than 2)

 

Man City/Fulham – Only City to score and a coin flip on the O/U of 4.5 goals – LOSS (w/o KDB the City offensive punch is weakened)

 

Watford/Man United – BTTS and over 2.5 goals, Watford to win – PUSH (Man United has some momentum so we will be careful in the future, especially before the model switches over to just 2018 data.)

 

Remember to check Sniper’s Slide Tackle for some player picks. The odds I will be using will be taken from Ladbrokes.

Burnley v Bournemouth

The books have Bournemouth as a slight favorite in this one but the model is all in on Bournemouth (26% more than the books). It is uncertain whether both teams will score but it does love Bournemouth to put up a crooked number (56% on 2+ goals). Bournemouth with 2+ goals puts them in my tier 1.

Crystal Palace v Newcastle

The model is feeling a coin flip on the O/U of 1.5. That is saying something. Crystal Palace has usually been pretty good at home but Newcastle should be getting healthy this week. Everyone but Lejeune (long term injury) is back in training. I like a really low scoring game here. On a seven game slate, I don’t need to go here outside of a one-off.

Liverpool v Southampton

The books are fairly certain of an over 2.5 performance but the model says it’s nothing more than a coin flip. If this game goes under 2.5 (model likes under 2.5 but pool to score 2+ goals), I could see not getting too invested with their prices as high as they are.

Leicester v Hudderfield

Leicester. Yup. This is the 2nd strongest play on the board and I expect their prices to fit nicely with Man City. That could be a popular lineup construction so keep that in mind. The model is up on Leicester with 2+ goals, as well.

Brighton v Tottenham

There is a slight edge for both teams to score but the biggest play we have here is Tottenham with 2+ goals (65.27%). This is the hammer, so you will see low ownership. I love them in tournaments. With Aguero and Salah on the main portion of the slate, you could see some really low ownership on usually well-owned players.

Dirty work is now done. Hold court and climb the leaderboards!