By Aaron Friedman
Aaron Friedman is an avid college football fan and bettor based in the Chicago suburbs. A Northwestern alum and season ticket holder, Aaron loves the passion and pageantry of college football and will watch anything from the SEC game of the week, to #MACtion, to #Pac12AfterDark. Be sure to follow me on twitter @CFBnewsDFS!
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Game Preview:
Georgia State (1-1) heads to Memphis (also 1-1) for a nationally televised ESPN game on Friday, September 14, 2018.
Georgia State is a pretty bottom of the barrel in FBS football: they stand in #119/130 in the Football Outsiders S&P + index., 109 in The Athletic 130. Phil Steele picked Georgia State 4th of 5 teams in the Sun Belt East Division. Yeah, not great, Bob.
Memphis is one of the better Group of 5 teams in the country: they stand in #20/130 in the Football Outsiders S&P + index., 41 in The Athletic 130. Phil Steele picked Memphis to win the American Athletic Conference West Division in his preview magazine. Memphis cruised over FCS Mercer 66-14 in its first game then barely lost at Navy, falling 22-21 in Annapolis in a game where heavy sheets of rain blasted the field.
Betting
Consequently, it is not surprising to see the Memphis sitting as a -27 point favorite on Tuesday. The line opened Memphis -23.5 on Sunday 9/9 and has been bet up to -28.5 and even -29 on myBookie as of today at 9am EST
FD MVP Candidates
The FD MVP receives a 1.5x points compared to the remaining flex positions. Unlike DK’s captain, there is no pricing premium for the best players. Simply put, you want the highest point scorer in the FD MVP slot. FD places a premium on touchdowns, so you will want an MVP who has multi-touchdown upside. In this slate, I am not getting cute: Memphis’ Brady White has 5 TD upside and is the only player in the game with such upside.
DK Captain Candidates
The DK Captain receives a 1.5x points and costs 1.5x compared to the remaining UTIL positions. So the strategy is different and more flexible. While the winner of last night’s BC/WAKE showdown $.25 GPP, had BC QB Anthony Brown (53 DKFP from 304 pass yards and 5 passing TDs), 2nd & 3rd place had RB AJ Dillon, 4th had Wake RB Chris Carney, 5th had BC WR Tommy Sweeney. Point being you can be flexible with the captain as long as your captain goes off. Easy, right? In cash, I’d still recommend White for DK Captain.
MEMPHIS
FanDuel
Missing from Memphis QB Brady White ($14,800 DK/ $14,500 FD)’s FanDuel player card is the ASU transfer’s statline from the Mercer game (22-28 for 358yds, 5tds, 0int). Sure, Mercer is an inferior opponent, but that game closed with Memphis as -31 point favorites, not too much more than the current Georgia State line. You are going to want White’s TD passes.
Memphis is excited for the return of RB/WR Tony Pollard ($1,800 DK/$8,500 FD) a dynamic player with 6 career kickoff return TD, just 1 shy of the NCAA record. Pollard was limited for the first two games battling minor injuries, but now he feels ready to go for the Georgia State game. last year, Pollard was 3rd on the team with 245 rushing yards and 2nd with 36 catches and 536 receiving yards. For being the 12th priced player, and with KO return touchdowns counting as much as a normal touchdown, I want to have this game-breaker in my lineups.
Based on game flow, I want to fit Memphis RBs Darrell Henderson ($10,600 DK/$16,000 FD) Henderson, 1st Team All-AAC last year and the most expensive player on the FD slate, doesn’t need much explaining. On FD, also look at WR Damonte Coxie ($9,200 DK/$13,500 FD), Memphis’ big play receiver.
Patrick Taylor Jr. ($7,000 DK/$14,000 FD) is an interesting GPP play for FD. Taylor Jr., like White is somewhat of a “player card” situation. I love the idea of pairing these two, because with a sizeable lead, each should get plenty of opportunities. In the Mercer game, Henderson and Taylor Jr. both had 10 touches, 125 + scrimmage yards, and 2 TDs. Henderson gives you a high floor and Taylor Jr. should get plenty of second half work.
GEORGIA STATE
FanDuel
Of course, with FD Single Game, you are required to have at least one Georgia State player. You could start with dual-threat QB Dan Ellington ($9,000 DK/ $12,500 FD) or punt with big WR Christian Owens ($5,000 DK/$7,000 FD), who had 6 catches for 70 yards against Kennesaw State. Owens originally signed with South Carolina, then transferred to Georgia State and sat out in 2017 for a transfer year. These are FD only plays. I like true freshman WR Cornelius McCoy ($1,000 DK/8,000 FD), a one-time Purdue commit, for both FD and DK. On FD, I would lean Owens over McCoy because of the $1,000 discount and being a much bigger receiver at 6-4.
DraftKings
Georgia State’s stud receiver is Penny Hart ($6,800 DK/ $12,000 FD), 1st Team All-SBC last year, but with just three catches for 53 yards last week, it seems unlikely that Hart will hit value on FD. Going with Hart will require you to sacrifice some of the premium Memphis players, and I personally want all of the Memphis I can get. Even on DK, while Hart’s price seems fair, I almost would rather go up to dual-threat QB Dan Ellington ($9,000 DK/ $12,500 FD) or punt with true freshman WR Cornelius McCoy ($1,000 DK/8,000 FD), a one-time Purdue commit or WR Devin Gentry ($1,000 DK/ $10,500 FD), who grabbed 5 catches for 83 yards last week at NC State.
My Approach
FanDuel
Since FD places a premium on touchdowns, and with Brady White having 5 TD upside, I am not getting cute: Brady White will be my MVP. In a majority of my builds, I will pick Georgia State value player (either Tra Barnett or Christian Owens) and fill the remaining three spots with Memphis’ the aforementioned Memphis players.
DraftKings
As mentioned earlier, you can take a shot with a non-QB as your captain. I am rolling one lineup with White as my captain and one with Tony Pollard as the captain, with the previously mentioned players.
Before I Go…
Overall, I hope you enjoyed this breakdown for this game. Please if you haven’t checked out the research article, please do so as we will be adding to it as we find more information to help you become a better DFS player.
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