Welcome back to our 5th weekend in a row of fights. This time we have a 14 fight card in Brazil. In the past Brazil has been notorious for having some funky decisions in favor of hometown fighters. That hasn’t been the case as much recently but, it always worth noting. After this card we will have a 1 week break before the Khabib vs McGregor card. I am super pumped for that one. Not to mention draftkings already has some huge payouts in that one. For this card there are a lot of fights that Vegas likes to end Inside The Distance (ITD). That will make building tournament lineups this week interesting as well as cash games.
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As always have some fun in tournaments this week. Just remember the Golden Rule! While chasing after the big payout is enticing always remember bankroll management. I am a firm believer in the 80-20 rule. Which is 80% of your allocated bankroll for the night in cash games and 20% in tournaments. Remember to take advantage of our Research Station and Domination Station. Plus check out the our podcast, and follow me on Twitter (@MMACashAssassin) for the latest MMA and DFS Army news! Let’s break down these fights.
For those of you new to MMA here is a breakdown of the scoring used on draftkings.
DFS MMA UFC Fight Night 137 Fighter Advice
Fights to Target In Cash
First off before I give breakdowns here. What we are looking for in cash games is safety with a nice floor. It might be taking a high priced favorite in a good spot. It could also be a value play based on odds and pricing. Often times in cash I will look to stack a fight specifically if it has the potential to go 5 rounds (always the main event on card or a championship fight). Now both sides of a fight may not be cash viable in a fight but, at least 1 of them is under this group.
Souza (-1100) 9.6k vs Chambers (+900) 6.6k
In cash we don’t need to get cute here. Souza is the biggest favorite on the entire card. I have no problem if you decide to lock her in your cash lineup and move on.
Tournaments are a bit more interesting. She has the highest salary on draftkings at 9.6k. Which means to be on the optimal lineup she will most likely need to but up the highest score of everyone around her.
Vegas likes this fight to end early with an ITD prop of (-250). Souza’s ITD prop isn’t bad either at (-218). I tend to agree with this and will have a decent amount of exposure to her. Just keep in mind there are several fighters below her in good spots as well. A good idea is to have exposure to her and pivot off her down to other fighters to get some good variation in your lineups. I will have little to no shares of Chambers. I just feel there are better dogs to target on this card with a much safer floor and higher ceiling.
Zaleski (-840) 9.5k vs Vandramini (+660) 6.7k
Zaleski is the 2nd highest favorite on the card. Another fighter I have no issues using in cash games. Between Souza and Zaleski I think Souza is the better cash game play. Depending on how low you punt in your other spots I don’t mind using both (I personally haven’t found a lineup I like doing so).
In tournaments I will have moderate exposure to Zaleski (for the most part I am spreading out my exposure up top with the 9k fighters. It also helps that Vandramini is moving up a weight class for this fight. My only cause for concern with Zaleski is he needs an early finish to pay off his hefty salary. He isn’t known as a great wrestler either so that limits his ceiling the longer the fight goes. Realistically Zaleski should dominate this fight. As for Vandramini I am not finding myself needing to punt this far down. So while its highly unlikely Vandramini might be worth taking a stab on in 1 or 2 lineups if you are making more than 20+ lineups.
Leites (-115) 7.8k vs Lombard (+105) 8.4k
This is our 1st value play on the card just based on Vegas odds. Let’s analyze this more and see if it’s good value on draftkings.
Leites has already stated that he will be retiring after this fight. He is a solid striker and a decent wrestler (2.11 TD’s per fight). Lombard is a good striker and has solid power. My only issue with Lombard is he has shown in the past that he can gas early.
Vegas is basically split on if this fight ends early or goes to decision. Let’s take our 1st look at our MMA Research Station and see :what it thinks about this fight.
Leites pops up as our 3rd best value play in the sub 8k range. He definitely deserves to be consider in cash games (I am personally not sure if I am going that route yet).
In tournaments I actually think Lombard is a better play. I really like the idea of getting some exposure him in tournaments (for sure if you are using Leites in your cash lineup. I think most people will look at Leites in tournaments because of his value and this will most likely mean Lombard comes in at a much lower ownership than he should be. Overall I think it’s a good idea to get exposure to both fighters.
Robertson (-150) 8.3k vs Bueno (+140) 7.9k
We honestly don’t know a ton about either of these 2. Both have limited fight stats as well aa footage out there in general.
Here’s what we do know. Robertson is a solid wrestler and has a good ground game (4.85 TD’s per fight. Bueno is an ok grappler and has decent submissions.
Vegas is expecting this fight to end ITD (-175). With the individual fighter props at Robertson (+149 ITD) and Bueno (+278 ITD) With both these 2 in that midrange salary spot let’s see if our Research Station (RS) has a strong take.
The RS really likes the spot Robertson is in. She is the 12th most expensive fight but, has the 8th best points projection on the slate. I already really liked Robertson in cash games. After seeing this I think she is a strong play in all formats. In turn I will also have some exposure to Bueno as well.
Spann (-140) 8.7k vs Henrique (+135) 7.5k
Spann is athletic fighter and has decent submissions. He is a decent striker and has good elbows. Henrique is moving down a weight class for this fight. He is a decent grappler and has solid TD’s (2.85 per fight).
Vegas is really liking this fight to end early (-265 ITD). If that’s the case they are leaning on it being Spann that does so (-111 ITD). Before we peek at our RS for this here is an interesting note. Spann to win via decision (+615) and Henrique to win via decision (+365)
Upon looking our RS is giving Henrique a solid number there for his draftkings salary. Plus I think this is a very winnable fight for him. I think him moving down a class only helps him and he looked really good at weigh ins. For these reasons I think Henrique is a great punt play in all formats. In turn with his ITD prop I want to have some exposure to Spann as well (personally it won’t be a lot).
A. Oliveira (-410) 9.3k vs Pedersoli (+365) 6.9k
Oliveira is a solid striker (2.96 SS’s per minute) and has big power. He is also solid in the clinch. Pedersoli is an ok striker (4.47 SS’s per minute) and has good leg kicks.
This is another fight Vegas likes to end early (-180). In this outcome Vegas is siding with Olivera at (-125 ITD).
Upon looking at our RS this is a fight I don’t mind either side in cash depending on your lineup constriction. Stacking this in cash is in play as well.
For tournament’s Oliveira is very much in play and I will have solid exposure to him. Pedersoli is worth rostering in a few lineups mainly because of his cheap salary on draftkings.
Markos (-110) 8k vs Rodriguez (+100) 8.2k
Markos is decent striker and has ok TD’s (1.57 per fight). Rodriguez is an ok striker and has good Muay Thai. With these 2 priced in the midrange I think this is a good fight to get exposure to in general.
To hear our thoughts on this fight in detail give or Podcast a listen.
Fights to Target in Tournaments
Unlike the cash fights from above. These tournament fights carry greater risk. While they may have a lower floor these fights have higher ceilings. Which when mixed with the right amount of cash plays can yield huge dividends in tournaments.
Moraes (-265) 9.1k vs Saunders (+245) 7.1k
Moraes is a good striker (2.81 SS’s) and has decent power. He has solid leg kicks and decent submissions. Saunders is an ok striker (3.37 SS’s) and has decent knees. He is good in the clinch and has solid cardio.
Vegas sees this ending ITD (-165). Of the 9k fighters Moraes is my least favorite (not saying I won’t have any exposure, just my lowest owned one). I just don’t think he has a high enough output for his expensive price tag on draftkings. Saunders I have some interest in as a dog. At 7.1k and a card we are digging to find them he is very much in play in tournaments.
Barao (-155) 8.5k vs Ewell (+145) 7.7k
Barao is an ok striker (3.76 SS’s) and has decent TD’s (1.39 per fight). Also worth noting he missed weight by over 6 lbs. Ewell will have the reach advantage in this fight. He is an ok striker and has decent power..
The slight lean from Vegas is this ends early (-150 ITD). Let’s see if our Research Station has a strong stance here.
Obviously Barao is the preferred play. But don’t sleep on Ewell. I think he is worth targeting in a few lineups. If he wins it’s likely via stoppage and he would for sure pay of his draftkings salary.
Trinaldo (-190) 8.9k vs Dunham (+175) 7.3k
Trinaldo is a good striker (3.28 SS’s) and has decent power. He at times has showed some cardio issues. Dunham has already stated this is his last fight and is retiring. He is a tough fighter and a decent striker (5.46 SS’s).
This fight Vegas likes to go to a decision (-165). For that reason alone I am limiting my exposure to Trinaldo at 8.9k. In a decision win he is not meeting value. Dunham would interest me a lot more if he wasn’t retiring. I think safest move is just have some small exposure to both fighters.
Santos (-165) 8.6k vs Anders (+155) 7.6k
Santos is a good striker and has good power. Anders is a solid striker and has good power. He is athletic and has good TD’s
This fight has the highest finishing prop on the entire card (-610 ITD). Let’s take 1 final at our RS for this.
Now RS is giving the lean to Santos. I actually prefer Anders a little bit more. For 1 he is cheaper. Plus he seems to have a better chin. Overall I will have exposure to this fight. Even with the high finish prop. I wouldn’t suggest having 100% exposure to this one. I think it’s perfectly fine to have equal shares of both.
C. Oliveira (-400) 9.4k vs Giagos (+355) 6.8k
Oliveira is a solid striker and has very good submissions. His only knock is he has been known to quit at times. Giagos is an ok striker and has decent power. He is very susceptible to being submitted because he often times just gives up his back. This one is fairly straightforward. Oliveira is the preferred play. If you are constructing more than 20+ lineups you could consider putting Giagos in 1-2.
Most Fade Worthy Fights on Card
Alvey (-355) 9.2k vs Nogueira (+326) 7k
Other than maybe considering Alvey in a few tournament lineups I am not big on this fight. Alvey is dependent on getting the KO to meet value. I just don’t see it likely happening early enough in the fight for him to reach value
Sakai (-200) 8.8k vs Sherman (+185) 7.4k
I just think its likely these to just trade shots back and forth. Other than using them as pivots in some lineups. I am not looking to roster either of these to much at all.
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