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Draft: 2018 NFL Head to Head Strategy

UW81 here. I’m a contributor over at DFS Army with a focus on playing on Draft. Give me a follow on Twitter to catch the latest news on Draft for MLB, PGA, and NFL.  As always, your best compliment is retweeting and/or sharing this information across social media.  Thank you!

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Scoring, formats, and basics

We covered everything you need to know about scoring in the 2018 NFL Draft Primer so we’ll jump right into the strategies we plan on using this year

When to pick a Quarterback

Short answer, last. Always last. Here at the DFSArmy we subscribe to the late round quarterback theory in season long and snake drafts. In a head to head contest, only two quarterbacks are going to get drafted. There will always be at least two quarterbacks in great spots that are elite plays every week, guaranteed. Unfortunately, we can’t say that about running backs and wide receivers. The amount of bell cow running backs this year is just not the same as 2016 or 2017. While 4 maybe available, 3 could be going up against elite defenses. Wide receivers face a different but similar problem in corner back match ups and how favored a team is by Vegas. If the Vikings are favored by 7.5 points, chances are they’re not slinging the ball down the field, removing viable receivers from your pool.

Part two of this equation is point differentials between the top RB/WR and the 4th best RB/WR as compared to the top 2 Quarterbacks. QB scores tend to be flat between the top 3-4 elite QBs when they’re all in great spots. This just isn’t true for everyone else on your roster and the numbers above speak for themselves.

 

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Counter Drafting

The subtle art of gaining a large edge over your opponent can be had by paying close attention to who they’re drafting and why. Here’s a common scenario to think about. Your opponent drafts second and picks Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas. Who do you draft? I’ll let you think about this one while we talk about opposites drafting.

Opposites drafting: When they zig, you zag. If you pick first and grab a WR, and your opponent drafts a RB with the second pick and a RB with the third pick, you should always draft a second WR and a QB. Here’s Why: Since your opponent already took two RB and he can only have exactly two RBs, they can’t ever pick up another RB leaving whoever you want to get wide open for your last picks. Conversely, if you decide to not pick up a WR and QB in this scenario and instead pick up a RB as well, you’re giving your opponent the opportunity to draft a better QB and WR for free.

This is the same for the opposite Scenario. You grab a RB first, your opponent goes 2x WR, grab a QB and another RB with your pick 4 and 5. If your opponent goes QB/RB or QB/WR, pick up a RB and WR on turn 4 and 5. Like the scenarios above, QB is locked out for your opponent now, moving QB priority for you to dead last because he can’t pick up a second QB at any point.

To answer the question above in that specific scenario, you grab Drew Brees. If Kamara and Thomas are having a banner day, so is their quarter back. For every TD they catch, you’re getting near equivalent points out of your QB.

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Offensive Stacking

While stacking in DFS makes the most sense, stacking in a 5-player head to head matchup can and will often be a bad idea. Think of it. If you pick up Michael Thomas and Drew Brees, 40% of your team is dependent on one offense in one game. While this is a common strategy in DFS on Fanduel and Draft Kings, it’s not the best idea here. In cash games, we’re looking to maximize our floor by spreading the love around to multiple high point games, especially since there are a ton of players at all positions in great spots, every week. I’m not saying to never stack, but you’re taking an unnecessary risk when doing it.

One last specific juicy tip 

You can take advantage of specific team synergies to wreck your opponent. A great example is the Steelers. Antonio BrownP and Le’Veon Bell are both dynamic, top tier picks. But on a 5-person team, you don’t really want both on your roster. So, if your opponent picks up Bell with the first pick, you can safely leave Brown to your last pick. Either way, you win: You get Brown as your last pick or your opponent stacks 2 negatively correlated players on their team, exposing 40% of their lineup to one offense, and leaves you wide open to grab players in similar, if not better spots.

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