Good afternoon MLB DFS players and welcome back to the Friday edition of Dr. StrangeChalk. We have a 15-game main slate tonight and as always, I’ll be trying to assess where we think the ownership will end up and what we want to do with the potential chalkier plays.
For our purposes in DFS, the “bomb” refers the “chalk bomb” which is a player we often force into our lineups because they seem like “the can’t miss play” of the night, only to watch them come up short. The goal of this column is to give you some pivots from these popular plays.
I wanted to address something in here today about playing MLB in September. I absolutely think you should continue to keep playing MLB until you can’t play anymore! Many guys will stop playing now that NFL has begun, but I believe there is still an edge to be had if you do your homework.
One thing you should know by now is MLB is full of variance, and the September call-ups, tired arms, rest days for starters on contending teams are only going to complicate things, not simplify them. That is why I don’t really play any cash games in MLB after mid-July. I think it pays to be bold and contrarian in GPPs at this point of the season more than ever. Attack a chalky pitcher or stack up a perceived “bad team” that might be hot. And if you’ve been playing MLB all season, you know the players, teams, and trends to look for on a nightly basis.
Pitchers
Chalk: Max Scherzer
I would expect Mad Max to soak up his fair share of ownership tonight. Even with his hefty price tag, he is only one of a few higher priced arms that DFS players are going to feel really confident in rostering. I think he’s a solid play, but on such a big slate I’m really looking to differentiate my lineups and save some salary where I can.
High Priced Pivot: Masahiro Tanaka
My favorite pitcher on the board happens to be Tanaka tonight. I am a sucker for him when he’s pitching well and in a good spot as he has the potential for double-digit strikeouts with his elite swing and miss breaking balls. Anytime you roster him at home you are at risk of being victimized by a few long balls, but I still think he has enough upside to warrant using him over Scherzer for the savings.
The GPP Sweet Spot: Walker Buehler vs. Jack Flaherty
I have been in love with both of these young pitchers in the second half of the season and I think that both should go overlooked tonight since they are in this 9k price range and we saw a lot of offense from these two teams last night. The last time they faced each other it was a tremendous pitchers’ duel with Buehler racking up 9 strikeouts in 7 shutout innings while Flaherty gave up only one run over 6 innings with 10 k’s.
Mid Range: Jose Berrios vs. Jorge Lopez
Jose Berrios is a solid option tonight against a Kansas City team that he has pitched well against often in his young career. At only 8500 on FD, he’s a pretty nice bargain and a good bet for a quality start with nice strikeout upside. Jorge Lopez is a much riskier option but is coming off his two best pro starts, the last of which saw him carry a perfect game into the ninth inning. The Twins offense is slumping right now and Lopez has the type of stuff to make good on his 7k salary tonight.
Bargain Basement: Tyler Anderson
It’s been a long time since I’ve recommended Anderson in any MLB column and I absolutely don’t feel good about it. But if you’re really looking to save salary, he’s really cheap at only 6400 on FD and 6300 on DK. He’s facing the lowly Giants in a pitchers’ park, so it’s the perfect get right spot for him if he has his good stuff and is able to locate his pitches and I think he gets plenty of run support to pick up the win as well.
Hitters
Chalk: Yankees and Cubs
This is pretty easy to see coming with these two teams carrying the highest implied team totals tonight. The Yankees get Marco “I give up long balls in my sleep” Estrada at home in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium while the Cubs get to face off against everyone’s favorite pitcher to target, Matt Harvey, at home at the friendly confines of Wrigley Field. The common link is here is popular, big-market home favorites facing perceived gas cans in good homer-friendly hitting environments. While I won’t recommend fading either team entirely, I do think there are plenty of viable offenses on such a big slate.
Sneaky Stacks
Detroit Tigers vs. Josh Tomlin
Josh Tomlin how we have missed you! The Indians are throwing Tomlin out tonight just to eat some innings in a game they really don’t need to win since they are only a few wins away from locking up a playoff spot. Tomlin has been arguably one of the worst pitchers in the majors this season and while the Tigers are not an offense we usually target, I love them as a pivot off the more popular Indians offense in this game. They have a .311 career average off Tomlin with 7 home runs among their regulars.
White Sox vs. Luis Ortiz
The Baltimore rookie Ortiz got a cold welcome to the majors in his debut and didn’t make it out of the first inning. The White Sox are boom/bust offense that can win you a slate if they have a good night. The bad Baltimore bullpen makes this spot even more appealing.
The Rockies on the Road?
Colorado faces Giants tonight on the road and Chris Stratton, who is another bad pitcher I love to target. Most DFS players are not likely to play Colorado away from Coors, but I think they could easily pop off in this spot tonight.
Alright Army, that’s all I got today. I hope this info helps you build a GPP winning lineup tonight! If you ever have a follow-up question from the article, just hit me up in my slack channel. Good luck!