The DFS n’ Donuts Shop

The modus operandi of the majority of my articles and podcasts is to deliver compelling evidence through analytics, trends, and useful data as to why a player or team is an ideal target to invest in. This article is slightly different than what you’ll see in most of my articles. In this weekly column, I will provide a light breakdown of the slate, give a brief overview of what Vegas has to say about the current week of games and highlight a few significant values on FanDuel and DraftKings based on some analytical data. This article is an early overview of the main slate and should be used as a building block and guideline to develop your strategies and start to envision possible paths to victory.

**Before we get started I just want to show you exactly what we have upcoming for the NFL season. Football is upon us and whether it’s season-long fantasy football or DFS, the staff here at DFS Army has you covered. If this link doesn’t make you so excited that you want to run through a brick wall then I don’t know what will. Here is what is in store for the 2018 NFL season.**

NFL DFS Podcast Main Slate Preview for Week 3

The 18-minute podcast can be found here. Please give it a listen and a 5-star rating to keep the content flowing:

iTunes – Week 3 

Google Play – Week 3

 

Salute to the Member Success

A massive GET SOME to a brand new member who won $200,000 in the FanDuel Milly Maker in his first week as a member with the DFS Army. What a life changing finish and kudos to CEO, “geek”, who has now helped two members win over $200,000 in back to back seasons because of his baller weekly PDF player picks file that he shares with every single member. STUD!

Congratulations to a couple of very happy members who experienced some superb winnings this season!

Our members and coaches create a type of bond that goes beyond fantasy sports discussion and DFS coaching. Often you’ll find members and staff sharing conversations about life in general, sports, family, work, stressors, and testimonies. It’s a really unique community and one that drove me to leave every other company I was working for at the time to focus on this one.

In 2017, several members had life-changing results from glorious NFL DFS weekends. Our “Member Hall of Fame” is littered with results from the last NFL season. As we direct our attention to the 2018 NFL DFS season, I hope that we as a company and community, are able to change the life of a player or even potentially an entire family. I couldn’t be more excited to deliver as much analysis and research as I can while discussing strategies day in and day out with members in Slack. It’s going to be a glorious and memorable season in 2018!

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Early Targets and Values on FanDuel and DraftKings

While using the NFL Research Station (one of our VIP tools), I compared each position and believe the following players have significant value on either FanDuel or DraftKings based on their price point on that site, recent trends, and or matchup for the current week.

Arizona Cardinals

This team is an absolute mess right now and until we see things rectified on the offensive line, I cannot see David Johnson providing any value – no matter what their prices are in DFS. The only thing he has going for him is the fact that he played in 68% of the snaps in Week 1 and 78% of the snaps in Week 2.

The most concerning part about DJ’s role right now is his usage in the passing game. Under Bruce Arians, DJ was frequently used not only as a pass catcher out of the backfield but a running back that the team would split out wide as a wide receiver. He routinely would beat the opposing linebackers and safeties in one on one coverage over the middle and up the sideline.

Thus far in 2018, Johnson has just 11 targets, 6 receptions, and a measly 33 yards receiving. He’s only being used a safety valve for Sam Bradford when the pressure gets to him. In Week 3, the Cardinals are home against the Chicago Bears who have an excellent pass rush and front 7. I don’t care if DJ’s price keeps dropping, fade fade fade!

Vikings Wide Receivers

Coming into the 2018 season, the question was, “Can Kirk Cousins feed both Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs enough to keep them both relevant from game to game?”. The answer is, yes, and there is zero reason to believe it will change.

The Vikings have been playing at a pretty good pace in 2018, running 71 offensive plays in Week 1 and 73 offensive plays in Week 2. Adam Thielen has been in on 138 of those 144 plays (96% snap rate) and Stefon Diggs has been in on 123 plays (85.5% snap rate).

In those two games, Thielen has received 25 targets and produced 18 receptions for 233 yards receiving and a touchdown on a 72% catch rate. Stefon Diggs has produced 12 receptions for 171 yards and 3 touchdowns on his 19 targets and 63.2% catch rate.

Thielen is third in the NFL in receptions and sixth in yardage while Diggs is tied for the lead league in touchdowns and had a much better performance in Week 2.

The Vikings are having much more success moving the ball through the air and I don’t think they’ll suddenly pound the rock with Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray, who are both struggling to move the chains on the ground.

Michael Thomas

I think there will be a new top WR, statistically speaking, in 2018 and it might not even be close by the end of the season. For the remainder of the DFS season and season-long Fantasy Football season, continue to buy as many shares of Thomas as you can.

In Week 1, Thomas had a 95% snap rate and then had an 88% snap rate in Week 2. That’s great and nothing to look twice for, however, when comparing that to his teammates, there is no reason he won’t continue to soak up a massive amount of targets.

In Week 1, Ted Ginn Jr. played on 78% of the snaps as the second highest snap rate for any pass catcher. In Week 2, the highest snap rate was Austin Carr and his 48% share. The rest of the snaps were divided up between Ginn Jr., Tre’Quan Smith, and a couple breather snaps were given to TommyLee Lewis.

If Thomas, the teams best route runner and red zone threat, is running almost twice the amount of snaps as the rest of the pass catchers then he’s going to continue to gobble up massive amounts of targets up and down the field. Michael Thomas already has 7 red zone targets in the first two weeks and the second most is Ben Watson with two. Load up Thomas until his price is too high.

What Should We Do With the Steelers Offense in Week 3?

Big Ben and friends are on the road in Week 3 to face the Buccaneers on prime time. The nice part about this is that they won’t be on the main slate, however, there are some series edges to be had on the smaller slates and specifically the SUN/MON night slates across the industry. A lot of casual players toss in lineups for fun and just pay the rake for you.

Yes, we all know Big Ben is a different quarterback on the road, however, this doesn’t mean his wide receivers can’t provide value. While Big Ben might struggle with efficiency in Tampa, he likely will still have plenty of volume. In Week 1 against the Browns and in terrible weather, Ben threw 41 passing attempts and finished with 331 yards, 1 touchdown, and 3 interceptions. In Week 2, he attempted 60 passes and finished with 452 yards passing and 3 touchdowns.

The reason why I am okay fading him in the prime-time slates, or even the Thursday through Monday slates, is that I feel like I can get a piece of his pass catchers and not worry about rostering “Road Ben”.

Through two weeks of the season, JuJu Smith-Schuster has 27 targets, having 8 targets thrown to him in Week 1 and 19 in Week 2. Antonio Brown has 33 targets in two games while receiving 16 in Week 1 and 17 in Week 2. These numbers are insanity, however, when you look at the rest of the team I really don’t think there is any fear of their volume getting much lower. The third guy on the team is running back, James Conner, who has received 11 targets.

For as long as the Steelers struggle to run and rely on the pass, JuJu and AB will soak up a dozen or so targets per game. This type of aerial attack being heavily focused on two pass catches is reminiscent of the old Peyton Manning offense with Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne.

Vikings Defense Chalk

It’s going to be hard not to go nuts on the Vikings defense in Week 3 as 16.5 point home favorites at the open. The Bills offense is anemic, mistake-prone, and lacking playmakers. LeSean McCoy might not even be playing in Week 3 which only buries this nightmare deeper into the recess’ of #BillsMafia minds across the…Upstate New York.

There are a few other pivots that I am comfortable with and that I will identify in Slack and in my MME Playbook article. However, in cash games and head to head match-ups, I will be 100% on the Vikings defense and anybody that suggests otherwise is getting too cute. Don’t think twice in cash games and if you’re overwhelmed and still learning how to play NFL DFS, there is really not much of a reason to go super heavy on them in Week 3 in GPP’s as well and just differentiate elsewhere. It won’t be hard with the plethora of offenses in a superb position in Week 3.

Two Minute Warning

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Fortune favors the bold, go make your own luck!
-Donuts