Welcome back to the Sunday edition of “Covering All the Bases,” which should be where you start your research for any weekend MLB DFS slate. I’m ready to break down tonight’s 11-game main slate. Whether you are playing on Fanduel and Draftkings, I’ve got some thoughts to get your lineup-building process started. While many DFS players will shift their focus to NFL today, there’s still plenty of money to be won on baseball. If you’ve been playing MLB all season, why stop now? I really like this slate today, so without any further ado, let’s dive into our top options.
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PITCHING
There’s only one ace that I’m interested in using today and that’s Justin Verlander. Chris Sale is still likely only going to pitch a few innings and Jacob Degrom draws one of the toughest matchups on the board on the road against the Red Sox. Back to JV, he’s pricey at 11.7k on FD and 12.3k on DK, but he’s been coming on strong lately with 18 strikeouts in his last two starts. He went seven innings and eclipsed 50 FD points in both, something he hadn’t been doing for a month. He’s a -200 home favorite and probably has the highest strikeout ceiling on the slate given his 30% k-rate and the Diamondbacks 24% k-rate. If I was playing cash games, which I’m not..it’s September baseball, people…then I’d probably be using JV today.
You simply can’t ignore Shane Bieber today, even if he’s pricier than he’s been all season (9200 on both sites). He’s the biggest favorite on the board and coming off his best start of the season in which he whiffed 11 Rays in 6.2 scoreless innings and his second-best start of the season came against the same team he’s facing today, the Detroit Tigers, back in June when he went 7 scoreless with 9 strikeouts. Bieber is a good young pitcher who’s biggest problem this season has been giving up hard contact, especially to left-handed hitters. The good news for him is the Detroit lineup is #notgood and mainly right-handed. Mike Clevinger made quick work of them yesterday and I expect Bieber to have a quality start today with the possibility of 7+ strikeouts.
There are a few nice mid-tier options today in Mike Fiers, Jake Junis, and Lucas Giolito. Fiers is probably the safest as he gets the Rays on the road and he has been consistently pitching well for Oakland since coming over in a trade in August. He might even be a cash game play if you wanted to save some salary off JV. Junis has really turned things around lately and in his last three starts went 9, 7, and 8 innings, respectively. He gets the Twins at home, a matchup he could exploit if he’s got his best stuff today. Giolito is probably the riskiest of the bunch, considering he’s been all over the place this season. He’s shown the upside at times that once made him an elite prospect, but he still gets hit hard frequently. The Orioles are a lineup that is dangerous at Camden Yards, but also one that can yield double-digit strikeouts, too.
HITTERS
The Cleveland Indians and New York Yankees are two offenses that I would be looking at first when filling out rosters. They won’t be easy to fit in at their prices, but both teams have elite upside today as they face left-handers at home. No team on today’s slate can top the Yankees .212 ISO. They’re loaded with right-handed long-ball threats. Poor Thomas Pannone of Toronto could be in trouble early. I’ll have some shares of Stanton, Andujar, Voit, and Hicks in the hopes that it’s home run derby in the Bronx again today.
Meanwhile, the Tribe reminded everyone yesterday how easily they can break any slate, as they scored 15 runs in the FIRST FOUR INNINGS! Today they should tee off on washed-up Francisco Liriano and once they’re done with them they will get to feast on the poor Tigers bullpen. Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Josh Donaldson and Francisco Lindor are all elite plays and we may see some good value in the Indians lineup if Yandy Diaz, Brandon Guyer, or Yan Gomes draw starts.
I was convinced at one point this season that Kyle Gibson had become a good pitcher, and honestly, he has had a really nice season compared to how badly he struggled in the past. But lately, he hasn’t pitched well, with his walk numbers being way up and his strikeouts way down. This is a “ride the hot team” type situation with Kansas City and I think I’ll likely use them as my third team when building stacks, and hope they can keep it rolling today. Alex Gordon, Whit Merrifield, and Adalberto Mondesi are likely to hit 1-2-3 and that’s likely the core I’d be building around.
Quick Hits:
The Atlanta Braves have the third highest implied team total today and some nice BVP against Nats starter Tanner Roark. I’m not sure which part of the order to stack, but I have a feeling they could break out for a big day at the plate (like they did Friday when they scored 10 runs) after they were stifled for only one run last night.
Kendry Morales has owned Lance Lynn (as a lot of good left-handed hitters have) to the tune of 5-6 with 2 home runs. He’s an elite play as a one-off today.
Kyle Schwarber has squared up Luis Castillo for 2 home runs in only 6 at-bats and has yet to strike out against him. That game is at Wrigley, where the ball could be jumping out of the yard today.
Todd Frazier is 3-10 lifetime against Chris Sale but all three hits have been home runs. He may only face Sale once or twice today, but with the Green Monster in left-field I think Frazier could definitely go yard today either off Sale or a Red Sox middle-reliever later in the game. And no one will play him!
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