Welcome to Zadelstein’s Bargain Basement!
A bargain is defined as “a thing offered for sale more cheaply than is usual or expected.” Bargains aren’t always the cheapest of the pick and that’s not what I want to give you. I want to give you the best value possible! With CFB DFS just returning to the scene, pricing is very volatile and recency bias is real. While there won’t always be a handful of sub $4000 players that will put up 30+ points on a regular basis, digging deeper shows us where to look for the best value possible. Stats and numbers are a very real thing, but they can be deceiving. I believe by looking at the opportunity, as well as production, you can find a much better picture of possible outcomes of a player, as opposed to the raw stats the sites tend to use in pricing.
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QB Woody Barrett (Kent State) $4800 – Kent State travels to State College, PA this week to take on Penn State, where they are huge underdogs. In order to stay in the game, they are going to have to have some big, explosive plays and air the ball out. On the season, the Golden Flashes have passed for 426 yards and have rushed for 538 yards. This is where we can find some great value for DFS.
Woody Barrett was a former Auburn commit that transferred before he ever played a down. He is a dual-threat QB that leads the team in rushing attempts with 28 and is involved in 58% of the team’s plays. The biggest knock on Barrett is that he is very prone to throwing interceptions. In week 1 against Illinois, he threw for 270 yards, 2 , and 2 interceptions and he ran for 117 yards and a touchdown. This is where DFS dreams are made! With that kind of production, Barret is a great superflex option for both your cash and GPP lineups.
NOTE: Kent State WR Mike Carrigan ($3100) is a top target of Barrett’s. After 8 receptions for 62 yards and a touchdown on 13 targets in week 1, Carrigan got 6 targets in week 2. Those targets ended with 2 receptions for -3 yards which has deflated Carrigan’s price. This is a boom or bust play but could make a great stack in GPP.
RB Fred Holly III (Hawaii) $5100 – Hawaii’s new run and shoot offense has the team booming. Through 3 games, the team is averaging over 500 yards offense and over 48 points per game. This week they face an Army team that is giving up over 400 yards offense per game. While the passing game has gotten a ton of attention, there is some value to be had in the backfield
Fred Holly III has gotten 50 carries on the year at a stable pace of 16, 17 and 17 rushes in each game respectively. He has also caught 4 passes for 61 yards. This is good for 32% of team touches! As teams have had to respect the pass more and more, Holly has increased his yards per carry average from 4.3 to 5.9. This ended with a 100 yard 2 touchdown week last week against Rice. Vegas has Hawaii as 6.5 point underdogs with a total of 62 in this game. 2 weeks ago Hawaii played a very similar Navy squad and their defense held them just fine to start the game giving up a late push by the Midshipmen. This allowed for plenty of work for Holly. I think Holly will be a great cash or GPP option this week.
WR Tamorrion Terry (Florida State) $4000 – Florida State has a matchup this week with Syracuse that could easily turn into a shootout. After an opening week loss to Virginia Tech and a close call against FCS Samford, the Seminoles are desperate for a good showing. On the year, Florida State averaged 276 yards through the air per game, and I expect that number will rise this game in order to keep up with Syracuse. This week, the receiver depth chart has been shaken up which could lead to some great value.
Tamorrion Terry is a true freshman that has played well in both of Florida State’s games so far. He has 4 receptions on 7 targets for 83 yards and 2 touchdowns. After being in an “OR” situation sharing the starting status the 1st 2 weeks of the season, Terry is now listed alone atop the outside receiver position. Offensive coordinator Walt Bell had great things to say about the freshman’s off the ball abilities including his run blocking. This is something that will keep him on the field more and continue to give him opportunities to shine. I had considered all FSU receivers GPP only plays but the more I read about Terry, the more I can see him as a cash punt.
Note: WR Keith Gavin ($4200) was also taken off of a shared starter status and placed atop of the depth chart. He has 5 catches on 8 targets for 65 yards. He could be a play as well. The final new starter is WR DJ Matthews ($3500) who surpassed WR Nyqwan Murray ($6000) to start in that slot position. Murray is the team’s leading receiver and I wouldn’t be surprised if this is rotated throughout the game. They are for sure GPP only for me.
Offensive Coordinator quote:
WR Marcus Armstrong-Brown (Hawaii) $3900 and WR Jojo Ward (Hawaii) $4900 – As mentioned before, Hawaii’s new offense has been very potent. With almost 1200 yards through the air through 3 games, QB Cole McDonald ($9200) has been able to spread the wealth. While the top receivers WR John Ursua ($8100) and WR Cedric Byrd ($7400) have received most of the attention (and price increases), Armstrong-Brown and Ward have had some great performances.
On the season, Armstrong-Brown has 6 receptions on 10 targets for 75 yards and a touchdown. This includes a 7 target game against Rice. Ward has had 10 receptions on 14 targets for 245 yards and 2 touchdowns, with a 7 target 161-yard game against Navy. Both of these receivers have a shaky floor being the 3rd and 4th options, but an endless ceiling in such a high powered offense.
Yards per reception rankings:
WR Jared Pinkney (Vanderbilt) $3800 – Vanderbilt faces a tough test this week traveling to South Bend to take on Notre Dame. They opened as 15.5 point underdogs and will have to air it out to stay in the game with the Fighting Irish. So far this year, that is not something they have had to do, winning both games comfortably. QB Kyle Shurmur ($5600) has been efficient so far, completing 67% of passes for 428 yards and 4 touchdowns.
The second-leading receiver on the team is tight end Jared Pinkney. Pinkney has served as the primary check-down option for Shurmur, and he also has several downfield catches. On the year, he has 7 receptions on 10 targets for 130 yards. In a game where the Commodores will be looking to keep up with Notre Dame, Pinkney will see plenty of check downs and possibly some downfield targets. He is someone I will be looking for salary relief from that has the possibility to put up some good numbers.
One more thing…
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