Two weeks into NFL and the DFS Army has been absolutely crushing! We’re back in action for week three and there’s a 13 game Main Slate to feast on with huge prize pools once again! I’ve got you covered with all pivot and leverage plays off the Chalk Donkeys in this weeks article!
My name is Josh Thomas, and I write the Chalk Donkey article for the main slate for NFL VIPs as well as focusing on the showdown/single game slates on both sites. In this article I’ll breakdown the games on the slate, what a Chalk Donkey is, identify who those players are at QB, RB, WR, TE, and DEF using our ownership projections and offer some pivots who are poised for big games at low ownership. I’ll justify those pivots using our one of a kind research station and in the process, hopefully teach you a bit about how to use that research station to identify solid pivots off the chalk.
Check out my Chalk Donkey PGA Article for this week here! –> Chalk Donkey PGA
As a reminder, this article identifies who the chalk is each week and provides options on how to either differentiate your lineup with it or pivot. Chalk isn’t always bad and I play chalk every week. There are times we have a chalk player and while I provide an option to pivot here, if Geek, CashKeg, or Marley say “All In” on the chalk, guess what? We go “ALL IN” on the chalk.
Week One Recap:
Can we give Patrick Mahomes the MVP award yet? Are you kidding me? 10 TD’s in 2 games is insane. The TD rate is insane. He’s due regression but when is it coming? I don’t think the 49er’s defense is going to slow him down yet.
Thankfully, our pivot off Mahomes this week had a big week as well. I would have never guessed that Matt Ryan would have ran two touchdowns in last week, but I was thankfully as it saved quite a few GPP lines from getting Mahomes’ed. Unfortunately he still didn’t connect with Julio Jones in the end zone essentially killing those stacks.
All of our QB pivots had great weeks at fairly low ownership. Cousin’s being the best with that insane fourth quarter comeback against the Pack. As a diehard Vikes fan that was fun to watch but a tie is like kissing your sister, its ok but it’s not great. I’m excited that the Vikes were able to sign veteran kicker Dan Bailey to hopefully get some stability back there.
Todd Gurley was the top scoring RB while James Conner got a late td to vault him into 7th and Alvin Kamara was stifled all game to finish as RB 10 after mashing in week one. Our pivot Kareem Hunt finished 17th, further solidifying the idea that you need to pay up at RB early in the season.
On the wide receiver side of the ball in an absolute smash spot Antonio Brown disappointed. His counter part JuJu Smith-Schuster smashed as the #3 wr on the week but was behind two, count em, two of my Minnesota Vikings holding down the top spot! Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs were the top two receivers in week 2. As such they will probably be chalky here in week 3, but against a bad Bills defense the vikings should get up early and turn to the run, meaning that ceiling isn’t near as high this week for these two.
Randall Cobb was a dud for the week even though it was a bit of a shoot out in Green Bay and our chalk pivot there paid off going to Kenny Golladay as he eclipsed the 20 point mark for the second week in a row.
In true to form fashion, George Kittle proved that he struggles to have big weeks back to back. He only had four targets and two catches for 22 yards. Our pivot, Zach Ertz who you had to pay up for caught 11 passes for 94 yards and just missed the 100 yard bonus and a big day but still cleared 20 points.
I always preach not getting cute with Defense, and we went back to the well with the Los Angeles Rams and they again were the highest score defense on the main slate.
The final fade of the week was running back Adrian “I’m old” Peterson. Here is what I wrote last week about him.
That was pretty much dead on. AP had 11 carries for 20 yards and 3 catches on 3 targets for 30 yards. Hopefully you avoided that chalk donkey in cash games this week as lots of others weren’t so lucky.
Overall, a really solid week for the Chalk Donkey after a disappointing week one of chalk hitting. Lets keep the momentum rolling into week two!
One way that I breakdown rosters is through our Research Station. We will have a stand alone research station for the Thursday games this year, which I’m pumped about, check it out here! –> NFL Main Slate Research Station
What is a Chalk Donkey?
First let’s breakdown what I consider to be ‘chalk’. In golf, I breakdown the chalk by price range, but for NFL I think its important to break it down by position. Note these percentages are for the main slate. On a smaller slate the chalk ranges become a little bit higher, I have no problem playing a QB at 30% ownership on a 3 game slate, but on a 12 gamer I’d rather pivot.
Quarterback: >20% Any time we have a Quarterback staring down 20% ownership or 1/5 of the field, its worth pivoting off of them. Quarterback scoring is often very flat and there isn’t a huge difference in point production most weeks, win or lose. Anytime there’s a chalk QB I almost always pivot.
Running Back: >20% Similar to QB, Any time a RB creeps up towards this 20% range we want to consider a pivot. I’m less likely to fade RB’s in smash spots at high ownership than I am QB’s just because of the ability of RBs to have massive games and outscore their closest competitor by 10-15 points. (See Todd Gurley, 2017)
Wide Receiver: 15%-20% With 3 spots for Wide Receiver on all three sites, you have the opportunity for ownership to spread out a little more on WR’s than the rest of the position groups. That being said, ownership almost always pools on 4-5 WR’s with most above 20%. There are very few WR’s that are match up safe and many tend to be game flow dependent. Many times we see WR’s in smash spots drop single digit points at high ownership because of the variance of a football game.
Tight End: >10% With only one spot on your roster for a TE unless you roster two with a flex, we don’t usually see players with massive ownership here. Anything over 10% would be considered chalky for me, but for the most part I’m not really fading TE ownership most weeks unless Gronk looks like a 30% owned play.
Defense: >15% Similar to TE, I’m not often fading a defense as we usually don’t have a chalk donkey here and there isn’t always a huge spread in the top 10 defenses of the week in terms of point production.
One thing to remember as you construct lineups, players are ‘Chalk Donkeys’ for a reason, they are perceived to be good plays. Don’t fade the ‘Chalk Donkeys’ just because they are going to be highly owned. Very rarely does no chalk hit, and often times you find some of these ‘Chalk Donkeys’ in GPP winning lineups. In fact, 83% of Milly Maker winners in NFL rostered a player who was 20% owned or higher and 45% rostered a player that was 30% owned or higher!
Now let’s get to the Chalk Donkey’s of the week. In the next section of this article I will highlight one or two players at each position that are projected to be highly owned and give either a reason to fade or play them. I’ll also provide a pivot or two who are projected to come in with single digit ownership.
Here are this week’s top 5 projected owned players for Draftkings. We have ownership projections updating all weekend for all sites in our Domination Station! Check it out here! ——–>DFS Army Domination Station<——–
Quarterback:
I don’t really feel great about this but he is going to be the chalk QB on the slate….
Patrick Mahomes: DK $7000/FD $8900/FD2 $13600
Projected Ownership: 15.64%
Regression has to be coming…right? Right?! Everything I wrote about Mahomes last week still applies here.
I really didn’t think it was possible for Mahomes to improve on his 4 TD performance in week one, on the road against the Steelers but he did just that, throwing 6 TD’s and completing 82% of his passes for 326 yards in a big win. That 14% TD rate that I said was unsustainable in week has now shot up to 18%. He now gets a matchup at home with a 49ers Defense that is the 22nd ranked pass defense in the league through two weeks.
A reminder of something that I wrote last week about Mahomes TD Rate.
The highest ever TD rate in the common era (1980-now) was Peyton Manning in 2004 with the Colts when he had a TD Rate of 9.9%. Last year Carson Wentz led the league with a 7.5% TD rate and the rest of the league was under 5% for the most part.
I still think that this TD rate is unsustainable and regression will be coming. But what does regression look like? 300 yards and 3 TD’s? Or will he have a 250 yard 1 TD 3 pick game at some point?
Everyone seems to be getting his bust ready for the Hall of Fame, and after two games it looks like that, but we have literally NEVER seen production like this in the NFL. At some point he’s going to have a bad game and I think it comes sooner rather than later.
Look, I think he’s going to be a stud in this league for a long time. And I’ll have shares of him this week, but my head just tells me this is unsustainable, if this was a different matchup I would be more inclined to fade but the 49ers D is just not good.
I’m not saying you should be full fading him, but in single entry I think its a viable strategy and I don’t think you need to go up to him cash with some of the other cheaper options this week. One interesting way to possibly differentiate is to run Mahomes out naked. He does a good job of spreading the ball out and this offense has big plays meaning that receivers aren’t necessarily getting a ton of catches which translates to less points overall on PPR sites like DK and FD2. It’s possible that we see Mahomes do it himself this week and run one or two in again this mediocre 49ers defense. If thats the case, naked Mahomes could be a GPP winner.
Andy Dalton: DK $5700/FD $7200/FD2 $10500
Projected Ownership: 2.07%
I think Andy Dalton has an elite matchup this week and NO ONE is talking about him. While I don’t like to target QB’s on the road Dalton’s matchup and situation this week is one that I’m very excited about. There is a decent game total here of 45 and the Bengals are +3 dogs on the road. In Cincinnati they would be the favorite.
Here’s why I love Dalton, lets look at the Carolina defense through two weeks…
- 24th ranked overall defense in the NFL.
- 26th ranked pass defense in the NFL.
- 30th ranked pass D against #2 WRs
- 26th ranked pass D against slot WRs
- 26th ranked pass D against TEs
- Carolina had 0 sacks against the 19th ranked Falcons O-Line (Cincy is 3)
Check out DabbingPuggles breakdown of AJ Green’s match up here Dabbing Puggle’s Draw Plays
This is an absolute smash spot for the Bengals here against a bad Carolina defense. Dalton’s been very efficient so far this year and I think that has to do with the improved offensive line. They’ve only given up 2 sacks through two games and Dalton’s only been hurried 7 times. Thats incredible. They are given him a ton of time to throw, combine that with the bad pass defense and Dalton should absolute smash here.
I love a lot of Bengals but I’m not really going to overthink it. I’ll pair Dalton and AJ Green together in GPP. I think theres some merit to going off AJ Green if they shadow him but still, its AJ Green. If you feel like you need to pivot off Green, Tyler Boyd is in a great spot and he’s so cheap that he is cash viable on both sites. I don’t love Tyler Eifert but I can’t ignore that TE defense and if they push all their chips in on covering AJ it should open up the middle of the field for Eifert. A Dalton/Green/Gio Bernard stack is viable too as the majority of Bernard’s production will be done by catching passes.
Running it back with Christian McCaffrey is a no brainer. Buck Allen rolled on the Bengals last Thursday and CMC is 807689606x the player that Buck is.
Other low owned QB’s I like this week: Jared Goff, Matt Ryan, and while not low owned my heaviest exposure will be to Drew Brees
Running Back:
Due to injuries we have CHALK CITY in RB this week, let’s get to it.
Corey Clement: DK $4300/FD $5800/FD2 $9000
Projected Ownership: 33.13%
Corey Clement is in an absolute smash spot this week with Jay Ajayi and Darren Sproles out. DK didn’t price him up like the other back up RBs this week and as such he is looking like the highest owned player on the slate.
We are actually projecting clement for 13.98 points, which isn’t great, but I would expect him to have a few more points than that, especially against an Indianapolis defense that is pretty poor against pass catching RBs (20th in DVOA). And is missing two key interior defensive lineman.
In Cash, it’s easy on DraftKings. You lock him in and move on with the rest of your roster. FD its a bit trickier there and I think I’d rather go with Latavius Murray, though both in cash isn’t outrageous.
In GPP though I think you need to make a tough decision here. Are you going to full fade or double the field at minimum. That would mean that 60% of your lineups have Clement on DK and 50% on FD. I just don’t think matching the field here is the play. It’s an all in or all out for me.
Here’s my concern with Clement this week…Doug Peterson. The head coach of the Eagles has been known to have a Running Back By Committee or RBBC and even though the majority of the backfield is banged up, I suspect we still see a RBBC with Wendall Smallwood (or as Geek calls him, “Wendy Smalls”) gets 8-10 touches and its even possible that the big bruising RB Josh Adams who was just signed off the practice squad gets 5-6 touches, if not more if he gets it rolling through this depleted defensive line early. The big bruiser could get the goal line looks as well if they try to run it up the gut.
That leaves 15-20 touches for Clement. I think thats more than enough for him to hit value at least on DK where he gets a point per reception, but it concerns me on FanDuel.
It’s an all in or all out play with Clement this week and I’m inclined to go All In on Draftkings and All out on Fanduel.
Ezekiel Elliot: DK $7700/FD $8200/FD2 $14200
Projected Ownership: 6.47%
RB on the road in a pick em? Not usually something I target but Zeke IS the Cowboys offense and if he’s going to be this low owned I’ll smash him.
Zeke hasn’t lit the world on fire so far this year but he’s averaging 20 touches a game and has become a threat in the passing game with 8 receptions so far this year. He’s trending in the right direction for a big game.
This Seattle defense is 15th in rush D and and 28th against pass catching RB’s. They are also banged up. Bobby Wagner comes back this week but KJ Wright remains out and Mychal Kendricks is doubtful. Safety Earl Thomas has been out with Non-Injury related issues and it sounds like he might be traded and Pete Carroll said he’s not sure he will be in the lineup Sunday. Zeke should absolute crush against this defense if thats the case.
We are projecting him as the 4th highest scoring RB in DK points this week and I think its possible that he ends up as the highest scoring RB and possibly even break the slate if he gets to over 100 with a couple tuddies.
Other Low Owned Running Backs: Saquan Barkley, Melvin Gordon, Matt Breida
NOTE: I’m going all in on Latavius Murray on Fanduel. Cash/GPP/Hybrid. Put him in your lineup and move on. He’s way to cheap for the workload he should get. On DK I’ll be overweight as well.
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Wide Receiver:
Julio Jones: DK $7900/FD $8700/FD2 $16200
Projected Ownership: 32.51%
I’m actually kind of blown away that Julio is the 5th highest priced receiver this week in this matchup. Marshawn Lattimore hasn’t shown that he can shut down a top receiver yet this year, and the Falcons are starting to move Julio around the field, including in the slot which only cincreases his value in my opinion.
A #1 WR in a high total game? Yes, Please. At this price I think Julio is cash viable and I’ll be firing him up in tournaments too. This is chalk I think we can eat this week. I have a bit of a concern about him having a ‘calf injury’ early this week, but Julio is a WR that doesn’t have to beat you with his speed, he can be that big possession receiver as well.
If you want to leverage the chalk here, I think any of the other receivers are viable. Mohammed Sanu is old reliable in the slot. Calvin Ridley finally had a nice week last week and showed some of the upside that got him drafted in the first round. Especially with how well he did after the catch last week. The player that I really want to target though is Austin Hooper at TE.
Hooper, through two weeks, has 30% of the teams Red Zone Targets and 33% of their End Zone targets. Matt Ryan is looking his way early and often when they get to the opponents end of the field. New Orleans has been pretty good against the TE so far this year, but haven’t had a team that targets the TE as much as the Falcons do.
Geronimo Allison: DK $4500/FD $5000/FD2 $8300
Projected Ownership: 4.08%
I want exposure to Aaron Rodgers this week without having to pay up for the highest priced QB on the slate and at this price, especially on FD where he is almost min price, Allison is an excellent play this week.
Allison is averaging 7 targets a game and has 11 receptions through two. I don’t love the matchup against Josh Norman this week, but this is not the Josh Norman shut down corner of old and I think we could see Allison burn Norman for a long reception this week.
He’s had over 12 DK Points in both outings this year and I think we see more that this week. At this price with a floor of around 10 Points and a ceiling of 20, I’ll take a low owned Allison and get a piece of this Green Bay Packers every day.
NOTE: Randall Cobb has the better match up in the slot here, but I like the discount on Allison. Feel free to swap them out though if you have the salary to work with.
Other low owned WR’s I like: AJ Green (why is he low owned?!) Randall Cobb, John Brown, Keelan Cole.
Tight End:
There’s no real chalk here this week, you basically have to make a decision if you want to pay up for a Zach Ertz/Travis Kelce or pay down for George Kittle/Eric Ebron/Evan Engram or even all the way down to Austin Hooper who I mentioned earlier. I think all five of these guys are viable options this week and depending on how I build, determines which TE I end up on.
Lets highlight one that I really like though.
Eric Ebron: DK $3400/FD $5500/FD2 $6700
Projected Ownership: 7.09%
Ebron is basically free on DK and FD2 and I will get most of my exposure to him there. On FanDuel its easy for me to flop to Kittle or pay up for Ertz/Kelce as they are only $1000 more there compared to $3000 on DK.
With Jack Doyle out, Ebron becomes the only show in town at the TE Spot. He has been pulling in about 4.5 targets on average through two games but he was only in on about 30% of the snaps. That will double, if not more this week and more snaps = more opportunities.
Even with a small snap share, Ebron has been a big part of this offense. 100% of the End Zone Targets through two games have been to Ebron and he’s caught a TD in each of the first two games. Philly is a middle of the road defense when it comes to covering TEs and Ebron is a match up nightmare with his athleticism and size.
Another big benefit for Ebron is that Andrew Luck has a noodle arm. He literally can’t throw it very far down field, so when some of the other receivers are running deep routes, the TE’s are the only realistic options. If you’ve watched any Colts games this year you might have noticed TY Hilton running some shorter routes and routes across the middle, which we haven’t ever seen him do in the NFL as he has typically just been a deep threat. I believe that is in large part due to Luck’s lack of arm strength coming back from injury.
I think Ebron is in a smash spot this week and will be one of my highest owned players on DK and FD2.
Defense:
DON’T GET CUTE! That’s my motto when it comes to defense. That means that there are really only 3 defenses that I’m willing to play this week.
Minnesota Vikings against the lowly Buffalo Bills.
Dallas Cowboys against the mobile Russell Wilson who has been sacked 12 TIMES in two games.
Chicago Bears against the Cardinals in what should be Sam Bradford’s last game.
You basically have a defense in each tier. The Vikings are the most expensive but are in the best spot. The Bears are a middle price point and in a great spot against a sputtering Arizona offense. And the Dallas Cowboys are massively cheap and in a great spot.
Sean Lee being out might get me off the Cowboys a little bit, but this is SUCH a good spot for them.
These three will be the three highest owned defenses.
Vikings – 22%
Bears – 16%
Cowboys – 8%
I don’t care about defensive ownership though. I want the defense that I think can score the most points and these three are clearly a cut above the rest in my opinion.
Don’t get cute. Lock one of these three D’s in and move on.
Final Fade:
In this section I’m going to give you my one other play I’m absolutely fading regardless of ownership. This week that player is Carson Wentz. Look, I LOVE Carson Wentz. He’s going to be a stud in this league for a long time. I’ve been watching him for a long time at NDSU (I live near there) and its fun to see a guy from here do well in the NFL. That being said, I don’t play guys in situations like his, ever. It’s got nothing to do with him as a player, it’s just a rule I have. He’s in his first game back from a major injury (ACL tear), we have no idea how he has actually looked in practice, his #1 receiver is out, his best receiver is now getting pushed outside from the slot where he has been ineffective his whole career, his best RB is hurt, the list goes on and on. I’m fine being late on Carson Wentz. There’s no reason to try to jam him into your lineups this week. I personally think his ceiling is 200-250 yards and 2 TD’s this week. I don’t think that wins you a GPP, but regardless it doesn’t matter, because again, my rule is that you don’t play guys in spots like this.
I want to win this month, next month, and this year and in my opinion you don’t do that playing guys in situations like he is. If he goes off and I lose because of it, so be it. Good bankroll management will take care of me, and the next time a player is in this situation I’ll stick by my guns and most likely it will pay off.
This is just my personal rule and one that has been pretty successful for me in my time playing DFS. You have to do you and if you like taking on some risk in situations like this, go for it, I really hope it pays off and he goes nuts, but it’s just not my style as a DFS Player.
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Last Play:
Be smart with your bankroll this week. Don’t chase losses, and don’t go crazy if you won in week one. It’s important to stick to the process that has worked for you. For me it means that I’m playing the majority of my cash games in H2H’s, the rest in double and triple ups, and my GPP exposure is mostly in single or three entry max. I’ve had a solid start to the season but the volume I’m going to play will stay the same because its a long season. I want to be profitable for the year, not just one week.
I’m really looking forward to working with you guys throughout the year and can’t wait to see those helmets crushing at the top of the leaderboard! Give me a shout in my coaching channel with any questions you have! #dfsupnorth-nfl-pga
Also, give me a follow on twitter @dfsupnorth as I’ll be posting updates there as well as useful retweets leading up to the games on Sunday.