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BigMarley3’s DraftKings UFC Breakdown

BigMarley3’s DraftKings UFC Breakdown

 

Event – UFC Fight Night 137                                                               Location – Sao Paulo, Brazil

 

Thanks for purchasing my UFC FN 137 full DraftKings breakdown. As always, my goal here is not to give you my personal lineups, but help you learn to build better lineups yourself, as well as give you my personal picks and strategies for each fight card. Every week I will do my best to break down every fight on the card from a fight standpoint, as well as a DraftKings standpoint. I will also give my pick prediction for each fight along with the method of victory. However, just because I am picking a fighter to win may not mean they are the fighter I would prefer to roster on DraftKings, so be sure to read through my analysis to see where my head is at in my own lineup constructions. Secondly, if there is anything you think I can add to these be sure to message me on twitter at @BigMarley3 and I will take it into consideration.

 

This weekend, we have a 14-fight card in Brazil. DraftKings has some decent contests available for this Fight Night card, which is rare for these free ones. The main tourney is an $8 entry and pays $20k to 1st. That is the main GPP I will be chasing this week. As always, I will be in the 3-entry max and single entry GPPs as well. However, this week DraftKings has two contests for trips out to Vegas to see the McGregor vs Khabib fight. Flight, hotel, and fights all paid for. The floor seats contest is a $33 entry and the non-floor seats contest is only a $15 entry. I will have to take a few shots at that as well. Other than that, I will mainly be entering cash games to help build my bankroll for the PPVs, especially UFC 229. They will have some huge prizes for that card and I am guessing we will see the biggest 1st place prize in MMA that DK has had.

 

A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.

 

With that said, lets break down these UFC Sao Paulo fights and hopefully I can help you build some winning lineups:

 

 

Livia Renata Souza $9,600 vs Alex Chambers $6,600

Livia Renata Souza (-1300) has an 11-1 record and is making her UFC debut in this fight. Souza is a badass. She loves to talk trash and will get in her opponent’s face. She says she has no fear, and I believe it by the way she fights. She is incredibly aggressive. Souza is extremely dangerous with her Jiu-Jitsu. She will dive on submissions, and in the clinch, she’ll try to get standing guillotines and just pull opponents into her world. She likes to attack with leg locks off bottom. She will attack with double and single leg shots, but her best takedowns are her trips and judo throws. Souza fights for takedowns, at times like its life or death, and will power through with hard takedowns. She can get caught in the guard of her opponent, like vs Angela Hill, but stays active. Souza is much better against the cage going for takedowns and grappling transitions. She dove on a guillotine and an armbar at the end of that fight, she will attack hard and try to finish.

Souza throws looping hooks and a straight right hand. She closes the distance with a nice straight right hand, and everything is full power. She throws solid kicks. She needs to get inside to be effective. She will bite down on the mouthpiece and throw back when opponents come in aggressively. She has fought in many 5-round fights in Invicta. She will posture a lot in fights and talk when she gets hit, but she has a great chin. Souza is a bit smaller for the weight class. She will struggle with fighters who move on the outside and use solid range striking, but someone that will attack aggressively and fight with her she is much more likely to win. She gets hit a lot. Souza has some big power and she knocked Hamasaki out unconscious. She finished Deanna Bennett via liver kick. Livia Souza is going to be aggressive and make Chambers fight on the back foot. She will throw big punches on the feet and close the distance for takedowns if Chambers can take the shots.

 

Alex Chambers (+850) has a 5-4 record and is 1-3 in the UFC. Alex Chambers vs Livia Souza is going to be a battle of two natural Atomweights fighting at Strawweight. The former Invicta champion Livia Souza will make her long-awaited debut after an injury derailed her first attempt. Chambers is 39 years old and has not been very active recently. She has fought 1 time since 2015. She is a grappler, but lacks the striking to set up her shots or strength to drive through and finish her shots. She will throw some decent leg kicks, and is much better going forward than fighting on the back foot. She doesn’t have great hands, they are slow and lack power. She will throw short hooks at short range, but they don’t have much effect. She can land her overhand right in the clinch or on the exit. She fights in straight lines, and if opponent’s pressure her backwards she will back herself up against the cage and not throw much. She can get pieced up by quicker fighters from range.

She is weak in the clinch, and while she looked as if she improved that a bit vs Kaseem, it’s still a weakness. She gets bullied and can take big knees and elbow strikes. She will attempt body lock trips, but sometimes can get over aggressive and end up on bottom. She has decent doubles and if she can get opponents down and she tries to get in dominant position and maintain top control. She was getting caught in a lot of sub attempts vs Kaseem and swept or nullified. She can get beat up on bottom and doesn’t have a good get up game. She will throw up armbars and that’s probably the most dangerous part of her game.

 

These seems like an easy fight for Souza, and dare I say, a “lock”? Souza is by far the biggest favorite on the card and Chambers is by far the worst fighter on the card. Aside from getting caught in a submission, this should be a walk in the park for Souza. I think she will come out fast and put the pressure on Chambers early. I see her getting the fight against the cage and dragging the fight to the ground. I think she could soften up Chambers with some punches but I see her getting an early submission in this fight.

On DraftKings, I love targeting the first fight on cards and this one is no different. If I can afford Souza in my LUs, I want her in as many as I can get. She is priced super high at $9.6k, so she will need to score highly to pay that off and end up on the winning LU. I think she can do it though and I feel just as good about her getting a 1st round finish as I do almost anybody else on the card. Ideally, at $9.6k, she can get a few takedowns, a few advances, and some significant strikes landed before she locks up a submission. I would really want more than 100 points from her to pay that much salary, but she does have 100-point potential IMO. She is my preferred play in this fight and she is a great pick to start your cash games with at her -1300 betting line. I will be full fading Chambers here and I see no real reason to use her here. The only reason you should even think about taking a shot on Chambers is because I used the L word in the previous paragraph…

 

Winner- Livia Renata Souza via 1st round submission

 

Zaleski dos Santos $9,500 vs Luigi Vendramini $6,700

Zaleski dos Santos (-800) has a 19-5 record and he is 5-1 in the UFC. He has been nothing but exciting in the UFC. He is an all action striker and loves to throw down. He uses a lot of lateral movement and lets his opponents control the center of the cage. He has a solid jab and will follow it up with a straight or overhand right. He will attempt to land left hook, right hook combinations and when he can land Multi strike punching combinations he can hurt his opponents. He is a fighter who likes to blitz at guys. He will be inactive just circling, waiting, and then when he sees an opening he will explode forward with left right combinations. He can get hit with jabs and straight punches, and he will try to counter with hooks in the pocket. He has a nice body kick, and will throw the occasional leg kick. He landed a nasty spinning back kick in his last fight to put his opponent to sleep. He is a capoeira specialist, so he does have a fantastic arsenal of kicks. He has a nice front and round kick to the body.

He will land nice knees in the clinch, will dirty box and stay active in the clinch. He can get clinched up himself and controlled. He only attacks in straight lines, and doesn’t fake or feint much. He can get timed coming in and has a bit of a tell on his blitz where he shuffles his feet. He is much better at fighting going forward than backwards. He has no problem exchanging in the pocket and has a great chin. He will attack with single leg and body lock takedowns and has decent takedowns but not great. He is very solid and active on top with submissions and ground and pound. He will push late in rounds and in fights to get the victory or hunt for the finish. He has awesome cardio and steals fights in round 3.

 

Luigi Vendramini (+500) has an undefeated 8-0 record and he will be making his UFC debut in this fight. Vendramani is taking this fight on about 2 weeks’ notice. He is usually a 155er and is only 22 years old. He hasn’t fought very good competition and this is a huge step up for him. He has only beaten 1 fighter who has a win. He has fought at 145 and 155, but this is his first fight at 170 lbs. He is fighting out of Brazil, so he won’t have to travel much for this short notice fight. He looks to be an athletic fighter who is pretty well-rounded. He has nice leg kicks and very quick punches. He seems to have good power in his hooks and solid speed. He has good head kicks, and he closes distance quickly and gets his opponents on the back foot. He has never gone the distance and is 8-0.

He seems to have pretty good wrestling. He has big double leg slams. He will pick fighters up and has very explosive takedowns. He has hard ground & pound and throws big hammer fists. He has nice leg locks, and uses them to get to better top position. He has a good rear naked choke, and pretty nice kimura. I haven’t seen him get put on his back or how he does on bottom. I also have not seen him put in any adverse positions and forced to fight through them.

 

This is another easy matchup on paper, and the second widest odds on the card. Vendramini is taking this fight on short notice in a weight class above where he fights. Oh yeah, and he is fighting a killer. Dos Santos has looked great so far in his UFC run and he has had some exciting fights. He is also coming off a 1st round KO win over a legit 170 lb guy in Sean Strickland. I think Vendramini is in over his head on this one and just took the fight to get into the UFC and buy himself a 2nd fight by stepping in on short notice. Vendramini will look to try and get this fight to the ground, but I don’t see him doing it consistently, and I don’t see him submitting Santos. He will also be the smaller guy in the matchup so I think that will help Santos keep it on the feet for the majority of the fight. Santos should have a big edge in the striking department and he could get a finish in any round, or win a dominant striking decision.

On DraftKings, Santos is my preferred play, and I don’t think Vendramini will make my player pool at his cheap $6.7k salary. He could surprise everyone and be able to get this fight to the ground as the smaller guy, and maybe getting a sub or squeaking out a decision, but I just can’t see that happening. My issue with Santos is that we need that early finish for him to score 100+ points and end up on the winning LU. I also think he will be fairly chalky. For those reasons, I have thought about fading him as well, but that almost seems too risky in this spot. I would rather have Souza for $100 more if I had the salary, but if you only have $9.5k for your last spot I think Dos Santos is fine and his ITD line of -180 makes me even more nervous for the fade. If you like other cheap guys on the card, I don’t hate the idea of trying to fit in Souza and Dos Santos and having those two early wins right off the bat. However, it will be hard to afford.

 

Winner- Zaleski dos Santos 3rd round (T)KO

 

Hecor Lombard $8,400 vs Thales Leites $7,600

Hector Lombard (-125) has a lengthy record of 34-9-1-2 and a UFC record of 3-7-1. Lombard is coming off a loss where he knocked out his opponent. He KO’d CB Dolloway one second after the bell, mid combination, and was given a loss via DQ. He at least probably earned confidence from a good performance, and landing a finishing shot. Lombard is 40, and should probably think about retiring soon. He is still very explosive early, and is a dangerous guy. He has good leg kicks, and throws them much more frequently since moving to 185 to gauge distance and stay busy from the outside. He tries to crash the distance and land overhand rights, and has knockout power in his shots. He has a nice left hook, and likes to close the distance with uppercuts. He keeps his hands low, and his opponents are able to counter with long punches against him. He is very weathered as well, making this a difficult fight to predict.

Lombard is a Judo Olympian, and very physically strong. He rarely uses his grappling, but he has great clinch take downs, he has big slams, and good body locks. He will shoot for double legs, and once he gets fighters down he doesn’t like to advance position much. He will stay in his opponent’s guard and land punches and elbows. He has good power on his ground & pound, but he hasn’t taken anyone down in a long time. Lombard is a BJJ black belt, but he doesn’t go for submissions much having only 7 in his career. He has great take down defense, and I would be very surprised if he got taken down here. Lombard should look to get inside early, and blitz Leites with overhands. If he can hit that chin and test Leites will it’s possible Leites will find his way out.

 

Thales Leites (+105) has a 27-9 professional record and he is 12-8 in his two UFC runs. Leites is going to be fighting in Brazil trying to bounce back from a tough loss via finish in his last fight. He has announced that this is his retirement fight, so congrats to him on a great career and I believe it’s the correct decision. Leites is going to be much taller & longer than Lombard, and he will try to accentuate that in my opinion. Leites is aware of the immense power of Lombard, so I see him using a similar game plan to the one he had against Sam Alvey. Leites is still a pretty fluid striker, and he has good fakes and feints to disguise his entries. He has a nice fade away left hook when you close the distance and nice inside leg kicks. He has good lateral movement, and always tries to stay in the middle of the cage. He has a good straight right hand, but he really tries to avoid getting into the pocket as of late. He has good body and head kicks, and I think he should try to use head kicks in this matchup. He tries to defend punches at times by leaning back and using head movement, and it leaves him open to getting knocked out or hit with big shots. He is much slower now, and has taken a ton of damage in his last two fights.

Thales Leites is a multiple time BJJ world champion, and one of the better pure Jiu-Jitsu practitioners in UFC history. He has good body lock takedowns, and then he will work for submissions such as the arm triangle. He used to have one of the best arm triangles in the business. He tries to stay heavy on top and control while looking for subs and small ground & pound. He has solid take down defense himself, but he actually isn’t great off his back. He will go for triangles and arm bars, but he isn’t nearly as dangerous as he is on top and he can be beat up in his own guard. He has slowed down as of late, and had cardio and chin issues. He still has a good chin overall in his career only being finished by strikes one time in his entire career. Leites should look to stick and move, throw a lot of kicks and be very weary of the power of Lombard. He has the range, and if he uses kicks volume and good movement, he has a good chance to win the fight.

 

This fight could be awful. Or it could end in somebody sleeping. Those are really the only two ways I see this fight going. So that makes it a GPP play only for me. Both guys are at the end of their careers, and Leites is retiring win or lose. Retirement fights usually don’t go well for guys and he is facing one of the most powerful guys in the division here. Lombard is actually the older fighter here, but he still is shredded and has serious power in his hands. I think this could be a fight where both guys circle around and not much happens. And if that is the case, the winner will not score highly. I think Lombard has the higher ceiling, and 100-point upside, but we are relying on the KO by picking him. If Leites can weather the 1st round storm, I think the edge will shift to his favor and he could win a decision by picking up the pace in rounds 2 and 3. Possibly getting a finish late in the 2nd or in the 3rd. However, I am going to side with Lombard and his power. This could be just because I really don’t want to see a decision here, but I do picture Lombard getting the early KO here.

On DraftKings, Lombard is the preferred play, but GPP only. I also don’t think he is a great play because we need the KO, but he will be the only one that makes my LU from this fight. I think if you are making 1-3 LUs you can safely fade this fight, but if you are making 3-10 then some shots on Lombard are worth it IMO. He has the power to KO anybody in the division still, he just needs to be aggressive and push forward. If he does, I think this fight could end very early. However, Lombard has 5 losses in a row and his two wins before that he only scored 73 and 75 in decisions. Those scores won’t cut it at his $8.4k price-tag so this is KO or bust. This mid-range could go over looked this week so I want to get exposure there and hope to have some leverage on the crowd. Lombard is an easy way to do that with 100-point upside.

 

Winner- Hector Lombard via 1st round (T)KO

 

Gillian Robertson $8,300 vs Mayra Bueno Silva $7,900

Gillian Robertson (-130) has a 5-2 record and is 2-0 in the UFC. Gillian Robertson is only 23 years old and improving every time out. She showed in her last fight vs Molly McCann, in England, that she can travel to her opponent’s home country overseas, have a raucous crowd, and still get the job done. Most girls would have some trepidation about them having to travel all the way to Brazil to fight a Brazilian, but with Robertson she seems the type of girl to always thrive in adversity. This fight was put together on short notice, but Robertson trains year-round, and is always in great shape and ready to perform. She trains at ATT which is one of the best gyms in the world and has a ton of high level women fighters in the gym. Gillian Robertson is a developing striker, but she has a nice straight right hand with good timing on it. She will catch girls with it when they are coming in. She will throw out a jab, and the occasional leg kick, but she doesn’t throw kicks often. She mainly uses her striking defensively trying to counter and just wait for the opening for the takedown. She has good head movement and does a good job of moving and not standing in front of her opponents. She won’t throw in combination much, and still isn’t great with her defense if she’s standing in the pocket.

Her single leg takedowns are very nice. She makes people respect her straight right hand and then fakes it and will go for a the single. She does well at getting a quick entry on the leg and drives through for easy takedowns. She also had a very nice arm drag take down, where she came in for a single, came back up, trapped the arm, and then rolled her, went for a leg lock and came back on top. That was incredibly impressive. She has fantastic BJJ, and is super heavy on top. She will methodically pass to better positions and she does a great job of getting to side control, and then going knee on belly into mount. She does an excellent job of staying on opponents if they scramble, and eventually getting the mount. When she gets mount she has amazing control and will throw hard elbows while looking for armbars and make her opponent give up their back. She will make sure that she can keep her top position and do damage and won’t get over aggressive going for submissions. I really do think she has one of the better top games in the division already, and if she can get on top of anyone in this division they could be in trouble. Robertson got a RNC in her last fight and put Molly McCann to sleep. She also has a nasty guard and a sick arm bar. She has super fat hips and can snatch the armbar up very quickly. She has great cardio and a never say die attitude in there.

 

Mayra Bueno Silva (+110) has an undefeated 4-0 record and is making her UFC debut in this fight. Silva looks to be a BJJ player with OK wrestling. She is green on the feet and doesn’t have great hands or striking defense. Her opponents have been able to close the distance on her with punching combos to the body and the head. She likes to throw kicks from the outside. She will throw a lot of leg kicks, and front kicks to the body. She will throw front kicks to the face too, and she will throw spinning kicks to the body and the head. Her kicks are alright, but nothing special, and she needs to improve her striking overall. She has good takedown defense and she does a good job of controlling the head and digging an under hook to stay on her feet. She will try to throw knees to the head in that position, but doesn’t have great attacks from there. She was able to get a front choke submission in her last fight on DWCS Brazil very quickly to earn a UFC contract. She will try to close the distance with her kicks get in the clinch, and then drag girls down with a body lock. She looks pretty good on top and off her back. In a regional scene fight I saw, she was able to take her opponent down right into side control, and had a smooth transition to mount. She was swept and then got an armbar almost instantaneously from her guard in that fight. Both fights I saw ended in round 1. She is 5-0 with 4 first round finishes. She has one other split decision victory in 2017. She has fought some decent competition already, and has had 4 of her 5 fights in São Paulo so she will have the crowd on her side.

 

This could be a fun grappling match, or an ugly striking match. Similar to last fight, I am picturing the way I would prefer it playing out. If this fight stays standing, I think the edge will go to Silva and I don’t think she would lose a close fight in Brazil. But I don’t think it scores highly unless this fight hits the ground. Either lady could get a submission on the ground, and at their prices, they could score well enough to end up on the winning LU. I haven’t seen enough from Silva to side with her over Robertson on the ground though. Gillian has looked great in her first two fights and has scored over 100 DK points in both of them. I am going to lean with her being the more dominant grappler in this matchup and I think she will pick up the victory. I think she will have to clearly be the winner to get the judges nod, but I think if this fight hits the mat she has a shot at doing that, if not even get a submission victory.

On DraftKings, I like targeting this mid-range, so whoever you like to win this fight I think is a decent play. I like Robertson at $8.3k, and if she can get a 3rd fight with 100+ DK points then she will be on the winning LU this weekend. I am worried about her taking this fight on short notice in her opponent’s home country, but she has gone into her opponents back yard in both her UFC wins so far. I think Gillian would be the only fighter I would use in cash games, but I prefer this fight more for GPPs. Gillian has a +160 ITD line which isn’t bad for her mid-range salary. I prefer her over Lombard at the price, but I will have LUs with both where I try to stay in this mid-range and fade the pricey chalk.

 

Winner- Gillian Robertson via 2nd round submission

 

Sergio Moraes $9,100 vs Ben Saunders $7,100

Sergio Moraes (-280) has a 13-3-1 record and a UFC record of 7-2-1. Moraes is fighting at home against Ben Saunders in a fun fight. Moraes is a multiple time black belt world champion in Jiu-Jitsu, while Saunders is one of the better BJJ guys in the division, so it could turn into a fun grappling match. Sergio Moraes is a very raw striker, but he is athletic and has good power. He will wing wide looping hooks with both hands, and if they land he can hurt guys. He had a nice front kick to the body, and will sneak a head kick in at the end of his combinations. He isn’t extremely accurate, but he comes forward and throws a lot of shots and it gives the illusion that he really is landing a lot of shots. He is fast and closes the distance quickly, but he doesn’t have a lot of variety in his striking. He will throw the occasional leg kick, but he doesn’t throw them very often. He has a good chin, but he has been knocked out twice.

Sergio Moraes does not have great wrestling, and will not go for takedowns often. He has only gotten 1 takedown in his last five fights. We haven’t been able to see much of his Jiu-Jitsu, but when he has been on the ground he looks very dangerous on top or on his back. He showed that against Neil Magny getting the takedown quickly moving to mount, and getting a mounted triangle submission victory. In his last match against Tim Means, he pulled guard when he was engaged in the clinch. When he is on his back, he will try to trap an arm and throw up a triangle and he likes to get to deep half guard and sweep to top position. Opponents haven’t felt comfortable enough to stay in his guard, and will stand up from the position and return to striking. He has good cardio, and a good game for winning decisions. He has had a knack of winning split decisions, and close fights over his UFC career, and has racked up an impressive record of 7-2-1. Moraes needs to look to exploit the reaching of Ben Saunders on the feet, and land overhand punches. He is going to be the quicker, faster guy out there, and if he can move in and out and land shots he could get the victory.

 

Ben Saunders (+240) has a 22-9-2 record and is 10-6 in his two UFC runs. Saunders is coming off a quick TKO victory against Jake Ellenberger, and you never have to worry about his confidence level. He is always ready, and will give his all to get the victory. He is definitely past his prime, and has taken a lot of punishment in recent fights. He has been finished by strikes in 3 of his last 6 fights. Saunders is a long fighter, and likes to throw a lot of long, straight punches and kicks from the outside. He will throw front kicks, and head kicks, but he doesn’t set the kicks up well and fighters are able to close the distance and get inside on him. He has good right hooks, but his hands are not great. He can do a lot of reaching to get the clinch, and trying to grab the Thai clinch from too far out and get hit with over hands. His chin is going, and he can get rocked even with smaller shots. He does have an iron will, and you have to really put him out to finish the job.

Saunders likes to get the Muay Thai plum clinch, and throw elbows and knees to the body and head. He was able to catch Jake Ellenberger with a knee to the body, and finished him with it in his last fight. He will try to get in the clinch, and get body lock takedowns, but he doesn’t have very good wrestling. He only has two take downs in his entire UFC career. He has solid take down defense, and is pretty hard to get down. If guys do get him down, he has a good rubber guard, and he has one of the only omaplata victories in UFC history. He can get his guard passed and neutralized by heavy top pressure as we saw with Patrick Coté, and if Moraes can get on top of him in this matchup I believe he is in big trouble. Saunders should look to keep range land his long-range shots. He should try to set up his kicks with a jab, or punching combinations.

 

This is a tricky fight to call. Both fighters are good on the ground, so I will be interested to see if either guy tries to take it there. I think Moraes would have the edge on the ground, but he rarely takes it there himself. On the feet, I think Saunders will actually have the advantage, but it is close. Moraes should be the quicker striker, but Saunders is a bit more active and much more dangerous. Saunders looks like the more faded fighter at this stage in their careers, but both guys are getting old and Saunders is the younger fighter by a year. If Moraes can get this fight to the ground, I think he could lock up a submission and that is what we will need to happen at his $9.1k salary. However, Saunders has never been submitted in his career and I think he will be able to hold his own on the ground, and I think he could win a decision or even get a finish on the feet.

On DraftKings, my preferred play is going to be Saunders. At $9.1k, I am not interested in Moraes and he will be a fade for me. Moraes does have a +115 ITD line, which is solid, but I don’t think he is that likely to finish, personally. I think we will mostly see a striking match in this fight and even with Saunders shot chin, I don’t think Moraes will KO him. At $9.1k, we need Moraes to get at least 91 points in a win to 10x his salary. In his 7 UFC wins, he has only had over 91 points one time. I am not willing to invest that this fight will be his 2nd. I am interested in Saunders at $7.1k. We do need underdogs, and he is my favorite cheap one. There are a few good underdog spots on this card, but Saunders allows you to fit in one of those heavy favorites if you want to go with the stars/scrubs approach. I would really not be shocked if Saunders could get a KO in this fight either, but I think we will see a close decision here, and maybe even a controversial one. But I am going to side with the dog here and pick Saunders to get the upset. I think It will be a very close striking match, and one we would think will go to the Brazilian. But I am feeling risky here so I will pick Saunders to get the road decision.

 

Winner – Ben Saunders via Split Decision

 

Augusto Sakai $8,800 vs Chase Sherman $7,400

Augusto Sakai (-255) has an 11-1-1 record and will be making his UFC debut after a win on Dana White Contender Series Brazil. He is a big guy, but he has love handles, and isn’t in great shape. He is light on his feet, and has good speed & movement for a guy his size. He is at his best when he is moving forward, and confident. When he moves forward, he does a good job of cutting off the cage and making it small for his opponents. He has good leg kicks, and a decent jab. He will throw a snap front kick to the body, and will go up to the face also. He will throw a check right hook, straight left hand. He landed a head kick dropping his opponent in his last fight. He can keep a good pace, and when he has his opponents hurt he will put the pressure on them. He keeps his hands low, and can be countered with over hands, and straight punches. When guys pressure him, he will back up to the cage, and let them control the center. He can get tied up and teed off on against the cage, and it could cause him to lose fights.

Sakai has decent takedown defense, and it is much better against the cage. He does a good job of getting double under hooks, and shucking off his opponents. He is strong and he rag dolled his last opponent. He will go for a guillotine, but he never really commits to it unless he knows he has it. He is ok in the clinch, he has nice knees, and he does a good job of controlling his opponents against the cage. He can be controlled against the cage as well, like he was vs Cheick Kongo. On top he will try to get in dominant position, and land ground & pound until they call the fight. He is not a submission threat, and has never gotten a submission in his career. He is a finisher having finished 9 of his fights via KO/TKO. He actually has surprisingly good cardio for someone with his size and stature. He has a good chin, and never been finished.

 

Chase Sherman (+215) has an 11-5 record and he is 2-4 in the UFC. Sherman is in a do or die situation coming off back to back losses, and this is also the last fight on his UFC contract. He has been in a lot of entertaining fights in the UFC, but the most important thing in this matchup is just to win. Sherman is another fast heavyweight with good hand speed. He throws a lot of kicks. He has very nice leg kicks and a solid jab. He can go up to the head and throws a snap kick to the body. He will go inside, outside and oblique kicks on the leg. He sticks and moves a lot trying to stay technical and long so he doesn’t throw a bunch of power in his shots. He can lose his technique and get wild if you engage him in a fire fight. He doesn’t move his head off center line, and can get hit with overhands. He has had cardio issues and got tired after round 1, but he was able to weather a storm and win round 3 in his last fight. Sherman is going to be the faster more athletic and powerful guy and he needs to accentuate that by going forward and making Sakai fight off the back foot.

Sherman does not have much grappling to speak of. He won’t go for takedowns, but he has decent takedown defense. He was able to control Justin Willis’s posture and survive after being rocked in round 1 by him, and Willis is a big powerful wrestler. When he gets taken down, I don’t believe he is a submission threat and he does not have much of a get up game. He is game, and has a good chin. This fight will come down to if Sherman can keep Sakai moving backwards for 2 of the 3 rounds and not get tired. If he gassed out badly, Sakai has a chance to put the pressure on and finish in round three.

 

I am not looking forward to this HW fight and I am really not impressed with either guy here. Usually HWs are good fights to target because of the KO potential, but I want to be underweight to this fight as a whole and I don’t hate the idea of fading it. I see this fight going to a decision and if that happens I don’t see the winner paying off their salary. Even if Sherman gets the upset in a decision, I’m not sure he will pay off his $7.4k. I think both fighters will respect the other and we won’t see a lot of action. I think we would be relying on a finish for this fight to be on the winning LU. That could definitely happen because these are big boys and it only takes one shot, but I think it goes all 15 minutes. I think Sakai is much more likely to get the finish though because Sherman is so hittable, but I think Sherman will set the higher pace of the two.

On DraftKings, my preferred play is going to be Sakai, because he has a nice ITD line of -125. However, I will be underweight on him and he may not even make my player pool at all. I think he is worth a few shots because of the lack of head movement from Sherman, but if he doesn’t get the KO I think this will be a boring fight. I don’t have much/any interest in Sherman either. Maybe he makes 1 LU because these are HWs and either guy could win with 1 punch, but usually HWs gain more ownership for that reason. I would rather be underweight on this fight or fade it all together, and get my leverage elsewhere.

 

Winner – Augusto Sakai via Split Decision

 

Ryan Spann $8,700 vs Luis Henrique $7,500

Ryan Spann (-190) has a 14-5 record and is making his true UFC debut in this fight. Spann is a big long LHW, and a pretty well-rounded fighter. He has OK hands, and is long and rangy. He has a very nice snappy jab, and a powerful straight right hand. He is fast, and accurate with his 1-2. He starts very fast, and goes on the offensive from the start. He has a nice check hook. He has decent leg kicks, and can throw some nice body kicks. He has good movement for a fighter his size, and can move in and out pretty well. He is flat footed, and can show some bad tall man defense in his fights like just leaning back to try to avoid shots. He has a questionable chin, and has gotten rocked many times in his fights.

He is a good grappler, and he has wrestling and submission game. He has good single legs, and really nice double leg slams. He will jump on guillotines, and he does a good job of using it to roll his opponents into mount and having dominant position, if he can’t get the choke. He can get very desperate for takedowns, and go in very sloppy with his entries. When he gets in the clinch, he has bad defense. He leaves his head exposed to be hit with elbows and punches when he goes for single legs. He got knocked out by Karl Robertson, and really hurt badly by Alex Nicholson in the same position. He has solid ground & pound, and decent top control. He does a good job of taking the back quickly, where he will lock in the body lock, and is good at sinking in rear naked chokes. He has finished 13 of his 14 wins and doesn’t go to the scorecards much. He does tend to get a bit tired in round 3, but he doesn’t have bad cardio.

 

Luis Henrique (+165) has a 10-4 record and is 2-3 in the UFC, all as a Heavyweight. Henrique is making his debut at 205, and he was a pretty big HW. He looks in great shape for this matchup, and if he can make the drop safely he will be a powerful force at 205. He is not a great striker, and very rudimentary. He has good power, and is pretty explosive closing the distance, but he doesn’t have much variety. He was throwing a jab more in his last match, but he was throwing it a little lazily and got countered and stopped throwing it. He throws big wide hooks, and then will try to get a hold of his opponents in the clinch. He will double and triple up on his right hook when he comes forward, and he has a decent Thai clinch knee. He doesn’t throw many kicks, but he did throw a head kick in his last fight, and has powerful low kicks. He will use a lot of movement and then just explode in, or he will try to get the take down right as the round starts. He doesn’t have good entries into his shots or his blitz striking attacks, and is also very sloppy closing the distance. He does have a good chin, and will eat shots to get a hold of his opponent and try to drag them down to the ground.

He has good wrestling, and is very physically strong. He likes to try to get his opponents in the clinch against the cage, and go for trio takedowns. He has good strength, and does a nice job of controlling his opponents against the cage, and will land short shots while looking for the trip take down. He will drop down and shoot for double legs if he cannot get the trip, and has a decent double leg take down. He is relentless with his attempts when he needs to be, and does a good job of forcing the action. He has big ground & pound when he takes guys down, and will rain down shots in their guard. He has big elbows and hammer fists, and will really batter his opponents with them. He likes to get to half guard, to control and land G&P from there. He has gotten a couple choke submissions in the UFC, but he is more strength than technique when it comes to BJJ. He had pretty decent cardio, and coming down to 205 if done correctly he could be a force.

This is one of the fights I do like for GPP, and it has a FDGTD line of -350. I do think the most likely outcome in this fight is a finish from either guy. If it does go to a decision, I actually think the underdog would be the more likely winner, and he is the Brazilian. Both guys have KO power and could end the fight at any moment on the feet. Also, both guys could get submissions if they can get in a dominant position on the ground. I have not been very impressed with either guy, but I’ve actually been less impressed with the favorite, Spann. I am leaning with the underdog in this fight and I think he gets a KO. Henrique is going to be huge for the division and he should still have his heavy power as well. Spann does not have a great chin and I don’t think he can eat many heavy shots from Henrique. I also think Henrique could get a GNP stoppage. Spann could just as easily get a finish the same way, but he is $1,200 more on DK and I am going to pick him to lose his debut.

On DraftKings, Henrique is one of my favorite underdogs on the card. I think he is a much better GPP play because he has such a low floor, but since I am picking him to win outright, I don’t hate him in cash formats. At $7.5k, Henrique is a great pivot away from the chalky Anders at $7.6k. Spoiler alert, I do like Anders too, but Henrique should be lower owned and that makes him my preferred play over Anders. If Henrique can get an early KO at $7.5k, he will surely end up on the winning LU. I also think he will pay off his price tag with takedowns and GNP if he wins a decision. I think Spann will need the finish at his price to be on the winning LU, but I will be underweight to him personally.

 

Winner – Luis Henrique via 1st round (T)KO

 

Francisco Trinaldo $8,900 vs Evan Dunham $7,300

Francisco Trinaldo (-250) has a 22-6 record and is 12-5 in the UFC. Trinaldo is returning to fight in Brazil. He has had 14 UFC fights in Brazil and is 11-3. Francisco Trinaldo is a huge, strong, imposing figure for the 155 lb division with the power to match. He has very good in and out movement, and is very fast. He only moves forward and backwards mainly, and doesn’t use much lateral movement. He likes to move into boxing range and pump his jab waiting for a shot from his opponent so he can counter with a straight left or check right hook. He has a great and very powerful overhand left that he has great timing on. He is a vet and can fight many different ways and in all phases. He is good at striking moving backwards as a counter striker drawing guys in, such as in the Ross Pearson fight. He is also good at being the hunter and attacking moving forward, such as vs Chad Laprise. He has a very good chin, and has never been finished by strikes.

Francisco is a good grappler, and very strong in the clinch. He has nasty knees, and very strong elbows. He can cut his opponents with elbows against the cage. He has pretty good double leg takedowns, and nice body locks, but I doubt he will go for many take downs in this fight. He has strong ground & pound and decent top control. He has pretty good take down defense, but that is probably his main weakness. Against Kevin Lee he showed a fantastic sprawl, and was extremely strong in the clinch denying body locks. He does a good job of sprawling and circling around to the back. He has good leg locks, and uses them to sweep to top position. If he is on his back he has good butterfly hooks, and does a good job of controlling posture, but doesn’t have a great get up game. He is 40 years old, but IMO is less weathered than his opponent Evan Dunham. I see Trinaldo wanting to get in boxing range, use his jab to draw out the shots of Evan Dunham, and counter with overhand and straight lefts. If he can catch Dunham clean I think he could hurt him. Dunham was also finished with a body shot in his previous fight, and Trinaldo has nasty clinch knees to the body.

 

Evan Dunham (+210) has an 18-7-1 record with a UFC record of 11-7-1. Dunham is coming off a quick TKO loss after getting hurt with a body shot. He has had a long and great career, and this is going to be his retirement fight. He will be traveling to Brazil to face Brazilian Francisco Trinaldo. Evan Dunham has really improved with his boxing over his career, and throws great combinations. He throws a lot of volume, angling off after his shots making him hard to hit, and coming in on different angles and entries. He will throw a nice jab, straight combo, and keeps the pressure and volume up going to the body as well. He will finish his combinations with a knee or head kick and they are very accurate. He is slow, and can get hit with over hands. He holds his hands low, and can get hit with clean shots. He has a good chin, but he has taken a lot of damage over his career and last few fights.

He likes to mix it up and go for takedowns of his own. He has good double legs, and will grind against the cage and try to get body locks. On top he is very good and will attack with a lot of choke submissions such as darces, guillotines and Japanese neck ties while also possessing very good, strong ground and pound. His ground and pound is very accurate and he will rain down hard shots. He is tricky with his submission game for sure, and even has his own Jiu-Jitsu school in Las Vegas. He has good takedown defense himself. He has been rocked in the clinch with elbows. He has good cardio, and he can go for all three rounds at a good pace. Dunham should look to wrestle in this match and get Trinaldo on his back, and look for a submission. I think it is a tough task, but if he can get Trinaldo down a couple times in each round I think he could potentially find a submission or win the round.

 

This is fun fight, but a tough retirement fight for Dunham. I am interested to see how this fight plays out, but it is hard to pick against Trinaldo in Brazil for Dunhams’s retirement fight. Both fighters are well rounded and I don’t think either guy has a huge edge anywhere this fight goes. Except, Trinaldo is much more durable IMO. I do think if there is a KO in this fight, it will be Dunham who is sleeping or finished from another body shot. But, if there is a sub in this fight, I think Dunham would be more likely to get it. However, I am going to guess this fight goes to a decision and I think it will be a fun fight to watch. Dunham sets the higher pace landing 5.46 sig strikes per minute, but Trinaldo will likely get the harder shots. I think the judges will lean towards the harder shots from the Brazilian in this fight, and Dunham has not had the best luck with decisions in his career. I do think this could even be a controversial decision, but I am going to lean with the home town guy to get his hand raised.

On DraftKings, I like both guys. However, I don’t want to be too overweight on either guy, because if this is a back and forth fight I don’t think Trinaldo will pay off his $8.9k in a decision win. And I am picking Trinaldo to win, so that is why I don’t want to be overweight on Dunham. And because I like other dogs to win. But my preferred play is going to be Dunham, because he should pay off his $7.3k price-tag in a decision, even if it is a close 29-28. He sets a high enough pace that he should end up on the winning LU if he can get his hand raised. Retirement fights usually don’t go well for the guy retiring though, and Trinaldo in Brazil is a tough task. I will have LUs with both guys, but I will have more Dunham LUs than I will Trinaldo LUs.

 

Winner – Francisco Trinaldo via Unanimous Decision

 

Charles Oliveira $9,400 vs Christos Giagos $6,800

Charles Oliveira (-370) has a 23-8-1 record with a UFC record of 11-8-1. Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveria is a boom or bust fighter. If he cannot find his submission, he will more than likely lose the fight. He seems to check out mentally if he doesn’t get his submission early, and his opponents are able to finish him later in the fight. He is coming off a very quick finish of Clay Guida vía submission in round 1. He has good offensive striking, he will throw nice jab and throws a lot of round kicks to the legs body and head. He will sit down and throw those kicks with full power because he has no fear of being taken down. He likes to push guys back towards the fence, and does that by throwing a lot of front kicks to the body. He does a good job of setting up the takedown with his hands. He likes to throw a right hand get in the clinch, but he will throw a left uppercut and go for a single or double leg shot as well. He doesn’t like to get hit much, and can get hurt to the body and the head. He has been finished in 7 of his 8 UFC losses, and has been KO/TKO’d 4 times.

He is very dangerous. In the clinch he throws hard knees and elbows, along with him always looking to clamp on that neck and tap guys out. He will dive on guillotines from standing position and has finished multiple opponents that way. If he can get on top of guys on the ground, they are in trouble. He works very fast and is always looking to take the back. He is one of the best back takers and rear naked chokers in the game, and does a great job of softening his opponents up, finding an opening and locking that choke in. He will switch to the armbar if he can’t get the RNC. He has no problem fighting off his back either. He will pull guard, or if he gets taken down he is very active looking for submissions. He has very fast arm bar and triangle set ups. He has a nasty anaconda choke. He can get submitted himself, and has been submitted 3 times in the UFC. He has pretty solid cardio, and can go for all three rounds if he doesn’t face much adversity. Oliveria has a clear path to victory here. He will need to get this fight down to the ground and get a submission.

 

Christos Giagos (+310) has a 15-6 record and is making his 2nd stint in the UFC with this fight. He was 1-2 in the UFC back in 2015-2016. Giagos is a pretty well-rounded fighter. He is a good wrestler, with some solid hands. He is light on his feet using lateral, and in and out movement to find openings for his punching combos. He has a good overhand right, and a good left hook. He does a good job of attacking to the body with the same hooks. He will strike his way into the clinch or into a takedown attempt, and does a good job of blending the wrestling and striking together. He has a really nice flying knee, he has knocked fighters out with it on the regional scene. He doesn’t use a jab or throw many punches to set up his hooks, and he can get a bit predictable with his stand up. Overall, he is dangerous, closes the distance with punches well and throws with power. He has only been KO/TKO’d one time and has a good chin.

He is a good wrestler, he does a nice job of closing the distance with punches and then level changing and getting take downs. He has good double legs, and he will get guys up in the air and slam them if he can get his hands together. He has good timing on his double legs when guys are against the cage, and does a good job of circling around to get the finish. He can sometimes shoot in with sloppy take down attempts, and get denied. He has good ground & pound and decent top control, but people are able to stand up from bottom on him. He has a pretty good offensive submission game. His takedown defense is a bit questionable, and people have been able to get him down fairly easily. He isn’t great off his back, and allows fighters to transition into more dominant positions. He has been submitted 3 times, and got submitted very quickly by Gilbert Burns. If Oliviera can get him to the ground, especially early, I see him getting submitted. Giagos should look to abandon his wrestling this fight and keep it on the feet. If he can stuff the takedowns, and land some punches on Olivieria he may be able to break Do Bronx.

 

Do Bronx is one of my favorite fighters and he is my favorite submission artist in the UFC. He has the slickest subs in the game and he can lock them up super-fast. I always target him heavily on DraftKings and nothing will be changing here. This is one of my favorite fights on the card to target, and both guys will make my player pool. I don’t see any way this fight goes all 15-minutes. The only ways I really see this fight going down are a sub from Do Bronx or a KO from Giagos. The line for FDGTD is -420 and that might not be high enough IMO. I think the most likely outcome is Do Bronx getting a takedown and submitting Giagos early in the first. If Oliveira can get his fight to the ground, I don’t think it will take him long to get the finish. However, if he cannot get this fight to the ground, I think Giagos get a finish of his own.

On DraftKings, Do Bronx is one of my favorite plays on the card and this is a good fight to go all-in on. If you are making 10 LUs, I would go 7-3 in favor of Oliveira, and get leverage on both guys. If Giagos can get the finish, he will surely be on the winning LU with his cheap $6.8k salary. But Oliveira getting a 1st round finish may not be enough for the optimal, but I think he is most likely to get a 1st round finish and still 10x his salary. I don’t think he has 120-point upside here, but I think he is a safe 95-100 in a win and we don’t have to worry about a slow paced decision. Either way, the winner of this fight will score highly, and you should have exposure to it in GPPs. I am pretty confident in Oliveira getting the win, so I think he is playable in cash formats, but I would prefer Souza or Dos Santos in cash. Giagos is a GPP play only because he has a legit 0-point floor.

 

Winner – Charles Oliveira via 1st round submission

 

Marina Rodriguez $8,200 vs Randa Markos $8,000

Marina Rodriguez (-115) has an undefeated 10-0 record and is making her true UFC debut in this fight. Marina was able to get a victory on the Dana White Contender series Brazil, and has a good record of 10-0. She is tall and lanky, but she doesn’t have a lot of muscle mass and looks to lack physicality. She doesn’t have the greatest striking. She will throw a jab, a one two, but she leads with her head and doesn’t have power in her shots. She will throw good front kicks to the body, and decent leg kicks. She doesn’t set the leg kicks up sometimes and can get countered clean. She doesn’t move her head. She seems to have a solid chin, but her striking at distance needs a lot of work.

Her specialty is the Thai clinch, she has nasty knees to the head and the body, and will break off and throw punches and elbows and then go back in the clinch. She has mean elbows. Her take down defense looks questionable. I have seen her get taken down multiple times on the regional scene with body locks and double legs. She will attack with triangles, and is active off her back. She only has one submission and it is by triangle. She is getting a big step up in competition here against Randa Markos. She needs to try to get in the Thai clinch and land big shots, and just try to out strike Markos.

 

Randa Markos (-105) has an 8-6 record with a 4-5 UFC record. Markos is a tenacious fighter with very good cardio, and keeps a steady work rate throughout the fight. She has a hands low style and likes to hang around on the outside and explode in with blitzes. She uses her front hand to gauge distance, and tries to stay loose. She uses a lot of lateral movement, but she doesn’t really set anything up off it, she usually just comes forward in straight lines. She has good straight punches and hooks coming forward and will walk through punches.

Being willing and able to eat shots to get inside is one of Randa Markos best strengths. She is tenacious and will close the distance and get in the clinch or go for take downs. She will work in the clinch against the cage and has no problem grinding opponents out there, but she lacks physicality at times and can get taken down herself or controlled against the cage. She has good body locks and doubles, and will go for hip tosses. On top she does a good job of getting in dominant positions and landing decent G&P. She doesn’t have great top control though, and people can get up from bottom on her. Off her back she actually isn’t bad, she does a good job of scrambling and has good dexterity in her legs and can take the back in odd positions. She seems to fight down to her level of competition, but whenever she loses, she usually bounces back with a victory. She will need to get inside to take down Rodriguez and try to win a decision in Brazil.

 

I think this fight will be going to a decision and the line for that to happen is -260. For that reason, I don’t think this is a great GPP fight to target with all the finishes I am seeing on this card. But, it is one of the better cash games to target, for that reason. I think this fight will be close and I see Rodriguez getting the better of it on the feet, and Markos mixing in takedowns to make the fight a close decision. However, this is in Brazil so I am going to pick Rodriguez to get her hand raised. I also think she has the better shot of getting a finish, and a higher ceiling on DraftKings.

My preferred play is going to be Rodriguez and she is the only one that will make my player pool. If I was picking Markos to win, then she would be the only one to make my player pool. I think Rodriguez will have a high enough output where she could get close to that 10x of her $8.2k salary, but I don’t see 100-point upside unless she can get a 1st round TKO. Both fighters have high floors though with this likely going all 15-minutes, so whoever you like to win I think is a good pick for your cash LU. If you want to just get your exposure in cash games and fade the fight in GPPs, I think that is fine. Rodriguez will make my player pool though and I think she will be fairly low owned, so I may be overweight to the field on her just because I am targeting the mid-range in a lot of my LUs. If you are making 1-3 LUs I think you should try to avoid this fight and I would prefer to target the Robertson fight instead for GPPs.

  

Winner- Marina Rodriguez via Split Decision

 

Renan Barao $8,500 vs Andre Ewell $7,700

Renan Barao (-135) is a former UFC champion with a record of 34-6-1. His UFC record is 9-5 and all five of those losses came in his last 7 fights. Barao still has a fairly good chin, so guys have to put it on him, but he is not what he used to be. With a mover and big guy in Ewell, this is a tough matchup. The former world champion Renan Barao looks to be on his last legs. If he loses, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him walk away after this one. He has taken a lot of damage, and the likelihood he ever goes on another title run is slim to none. He is training at ATT again for this camp, and trying to round out his game. Barao has always relied on his speed and power in his fights, he doesn’t use much feints or footwork and likes to just stand in front of guys and rely of landing first and landing hard getting them on the back foot where he can start to use his kicking and knee game. If opponents stay on the outside with Renan, but stand in front of him, he will tear them up with devastating leg kicks, flying knees, head kicks, and spinning heel kicks. Inside, he has solid hands and good combinations. His chin isn’t what it used to be and he can get rocked with shots. He is still durable though, showing that by taking a beating from Jeremy Stephens.

He has started to look for way more takedowns and work his Jiu-Jitsu more than in the past. He has a solid double leg takedown and has good timing on his shots. He will try to shoot and take guys down near the end of close rounds as well. He is a black belt in BJJ and is very good on the ground. Guys have to be weary of his back take and his submissions on top. Off the back he isn’t as dangerous, but still can sub guys or sweep them if they don’t mind their P’s and Q’s. Barao gets very tired in recent fights, and against Kelleher he was doing a lot of reaching to try to clinch up and slow the fight down. I think he will look to that again. Ewell is a big, fast, long, powerful guy, and he could be too much for Barao to deal with in space. It’s going to be very hard for him to get Ewell to back up, he needs to slam low leg kicks and try to chop down Ewell early, and then go for takedowns.

 

Andre Ewell (+115) has a 13-4 record and is making his UFC debut in this spot. Ewell is making his UFC debut after capturing the CES title, and he is getting a chance to jump right into the mix with a win over former world champion Renan Barão. Barão has been fading since going on a 30-fight unbeaten streak, and has lost 4 of his last 5 fights. Ewell is a very athletic guy and a good striker. He has good distance control and is a long and big bantamweight, and will have a 5-inch reach advantage in this match. He has a hands down style and likes to counter. He will wait for guys to throw, and he will come over the top with the over hand left. He has a nice jab, and he has very good hand speed. He has a great 1-2 and he uses it to walk down his opponents. He does a great job of sliding in and out of range and being the fighter controlling distance. He has a nasty body jab, and he throws nice kicks too. He has a nice head kick, good oblique kicks and nice body kicks, but he doesn’t throw as many kicks as he does punches. He has a very good straight left hand, and he is very accurate. He picks his shots very well and will throw uppercuts when guys have a high guard, and he will throw over and around their guard as well. He keeps a high volume of punches and doesn’t really throw full power. When he hurts guys, he will land small shots and then land a big shot to try and get the finish.

He has questionable takedown defense, but it is hard to get in on his legs with his movement and combinations. If his opponents can get in on his legs they can usually take him down. He will attack with a great darce when his opponents go for the takedown, and he got one in his last fight to win the title against Denis Paiva. Ewell isn’t bad off his back, he has a good triangle and throws his legs up quickly. He can be controlled in the guard, and have ground & pound landed on him, which we saw in his last fight, but he stays calm and is able to find a way back to his feet eventually, most of the time. He has given up his back and been submitted before, and if he gets taken down by Barao he may get submitted. Overall, he looks like a dangerous striker with some decent submissions, and an interesting new addition to the UFC roster. He has good cardio and a good chin. He has been submitted twice in his career. He should look to keep the distance in this fight and control the distance with his jab and 1-2.

 

This is a tough fight to call and I have changed my pick a few times already this week. It really just comes down to how much Barao has left in the tank at this point. Ewell looks like he does belong in the UFC, but matching him up with Barao in Brazil is a weird debut fight for him. A few years ago, Barao was untouchable. Now he is fighting debut fighters. That just tells you how far he has fallen off. Earlier in the week I was leaning towards the Barao fade and picking Ewell to win. Recently, I have been thinking Barao might be able to get this one done and possibly by submission. Needless to say, I don’t have a good read on this fight. For that reason, I don’t really want to invest in it because I don’t want to waste LUs by using both guys. I also don’t think this fight will be a great fight or a high scoring fight overall.

On DraftKings, my preferred play is going to be Barao, but I am likely going to fade this fight in my LUs. I say Barao is my preferred play because I think he will be less owned, and I think he has a shot at finishing the fight by submission. I just don’t think it’s likely enough for me to invest in and I don’t want to have my money on a shot Renan Barao, even if it is in Brazil. His ITD line is +190 and Ewell has an ITD line of +255, so if you do have a strong lean on this fight I don’t think it is a bad play to use the guy you like. I think Ewell might be somewhat highly owned, so I would prefer to save money and get guys below him and move up elsewhere in my LUs. I am going to hope Barao can get a low scoring decision win here and then maybe retire on a W. I do think if it is a close fight the judges will lean towards the future champ in his home country and the crowd will cheer every time he lands anything good so that could also help sway the judges in a decision.

 

Winner – Renan Barao via Unanimous Decision

 

Sam Alvey $9,200 vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira $7,000

Sam Alvey (-325) has a 33-10-1 record with a UFC record of 10-5. Alvey is going to Brazil to fight Brazilian legend in Nogueira. He is 2-0 since going to 205, and has jumped right into the top 15 of the division. I feel like he has been around forever, and his first run through TUF feels like ages ago, but he is only 32 and 10 years younger than his opponent. Sam Alvey is what he is at this point in his career. A low output counter striker, who is solely looking to land a hard-right hook and knock guys out. He doesn’t throw in combination and very rarely will throw a left hand or kicks. He walks forward and tries to stay in his opponent’s face. He has one punch KO power and that’s what still makes him dangerous. He was able to get a KO in his LHW debut and followed that up with a decision victory, so he will be going for 3 in a row vs Nog. He has a great chin, and will eat shots to close the distance to get a chance to give his own. He doesn’t have fast feet, and if guys use a game plan of hitting from the outside and not getting hit he struggles mightily.

Sam Alvey is not much of a grappler, but he has good take down defense. He has a good guillotine, that he will attempt when his opponents go in for takedowns. He only has 3 submissions, and isn’t very diverse with his submission game. He has just 1 take down in his entire UFC career, but he has an impressive 84% take down defense rate. He doesn’t fight in the clinch much either. He has a good chin, and his cardio is fine in his fights because his output is not high. He is going to do what he does, and look for the knockout right hand.

 

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (+265) has a 22-8 record and is an even 5-5 in the UFC. Nogueira is a legend, he is fighting in Brazil in what could potentially be his retirement fight, IMO. He is 42 years old, and a myriad of injuries has made him very inactive in his UFC Career. He is returning after nearly two years off to face Sam Alvey here. He is coming off a TKO loss to Ryan Bader. He has only fought 3 times since 2015. Nogueira is still a good south paw boxer, and looked very good vs Patrick Cummings. He has a very nice jab, and a good left hook. He likes to follow up his jab with a left hook, and it has KO power. He does a good job of slipping off center line after throwing his left hand. He does a good job of putting long combinations together in the pocket, with left and right hooks. He doesn’t throw many kicks, and it makes him able to be out volumed from the outside. I don’t see that being much of a problem in this fight because Alvey doesn’t have a great outside striking or kicking game either. He has an OK chin, and has only been finished with strikes 3 times. His last finish against Ryan Bader, was due to being stuck in a position on the ground and taking shots not about taking a concussive blow. He still has solid hand speed, and dangerous striker especially early. He blitzed and overwhelmed Patrick Cummings with strikes in round 1 in 2016 as a big underdog.

Nogueira is not a grappler in the octagon, having only 1 career UFC takedown. He has pretty good take down defense, and does a good job in the clinch. He has nasty knees to the body dropping and finishing Tito Ortiz with one. He has good hooks to the head and the body inside, and he is very good overall in the clinch. He is a third-degree black belt in jiu-jitsu, and did a good job of surviving on the floor for 3.5 rounds with Bader, but he hasn’t shown much of it offensively. He will be ready to go, and really wants a win here in his home country. He doesn’t need to fight, him and his brother are legends in Brazil, but he just loves it and wants to show he still has the hunger to compete. Nogueira didn’t fight his first MMA fight in Brazil until his 20th pro fight, but this will be his 4th in a row there in Brazil. His record in Brazil is only 2-2.  He should look to land the jab, crowd Alvey, and look for his combinations. He is the better boxer, but he can’t get caught with the big counter right hand of Alvey, and needs to be super diligent defensively. He has a chance to win a decision here as well if he doesn’t get finished, because of Alvey’s style and this fight being in Brazil.

 

This is the fight I am looking forward to the least. I expect this to be everyone’s least favorite fight, so it should go low owned, but that is really the only plus in my eyes about this fight. Sam Alvey is a fighter I just don’t play on DraftKings. He has to get a KO to score highly, and I am just not willing to invest on him landing that big shot when he rarely strikes as it is. We know Alvey won’t go for any takedowns here. We also know Alvey won’t strike at a high pace. So, unless he gets the KO win, he will likely score around 60 points with a decision victory. At his price of $9.2k, you cannot afford a 60-point win. Not only do we need a KO win from him at that price, but we need it to be in the 1st round as well. On the other side, with Nog, he also doesn’t strike at a high pace, and he is at the very end of his career at 42 years old. The only good thing about him here is that he is only $7k, so a 50-60-point win from him won’t kill you as badly. I think he could get a decision win here too because of the lack of output from Sam. With this being in Brazil, the crowd will be very loud for Nog and they will do anything they can to help sway the judge’s opinions. I do think this goes to a decision, and I have to favor Alvey to get the win, but it wouldn’t shock me at all to see Nog pick up a win from the judges.

On DraftKings, if you are making 1-10 fights, I think you should fade this fight altogether. I will have a full fade on Alvey at $9.2k, but if you are confident in him getting a 1st round finish, go ahead and throw him in some GPPs. But stay away from this fight in cash games. If either of these fighters make my player pool it will be Nog. If he can go to a decision and score 50 or 60 points, you can still have a shot at winning a GPP if you can get your other 5 wins as well. I don’t see Nog getting a finish here, but a decision is definitely a possible outcome in Brazil. I don’t feel good about having Nog in my LUs, but if I only have $7k for my last spot in my lineup, then he might make my pool for that reason. If you can make LUs you like without using this fight at all, that is the path I would suggest you take.

 

Winner- Sam Alvey via Split Decision.

 

Alex Oliveira $9,300 vs Carlo Pedersoli $6,900

Alex Oliveira (-420) has an 18-5-2 record and he is 8-3-1 in the UFC. Cowboy Oliveira is an action fighter who always brings it, win or lose. He is coming off a win over Carlos Condit, but it obviously was not the same Carlos of old. Cowboy Oliveira is so loose and calm in the cage and it looks like he has a lot of fun out there. He starts attacking right away, and there is no feeling out process with Oliveira. He is very athletic, fast, and wild on the feet. He will use a lot of lateral movement throw hard inside leg kicks and looping punches and come in on fast blitz. He has a nasty teip kick to the body, and an extremely powerful uppercut. He KO’d Laflare with an uppercut. Oliveira is extremely aggressive at times. When he was against Yancy, he blitzed him early and landed very hard straight lefts. He has a really nice standing elbow, and a nice double knee to the body as well. Alex Oliveira offensive weapons are amazing and I think he can be one of the best fighters in the division if he can just hone in the aggressiveness. He has a great chin but he has taken a lot of damage.

He does a good job of getting double under hooks in clinch and keeping control and landing nasty knees to the body. He gets wrist control and lands hard knees to the body and he has good elbows on the break. He is very physically strong, and will control and finish his opponents in that position. He has good body locks, and double leg take downs against the cage, and has nasty ground & pound. He has very heavy top pressure, and looks for arm triangles from top control. He can get swept, and was swept and double legged by Condit a couple times in his last fight. He uses a lot of strength and muscling on bottom rather than technique. He got a nice guillotine finish in his last fight. Cowboy needs to blitz Pedersoli early and get him uncomfortable. If he can get in the clinch, land shots, get takedowns, and land damage on Pedersoli early, he may be able to finish him.

 

 

Carlo Pedersoli (+335) has an 11-1 record and won in his UFC debut last fight. Pedersoli had an impressive UFC debut earning a victory on short notice less than a month after a 3-round war with Nicholas Dalby. Pedersoli is a striker, and is very slick. He has a nasty jab, and a good straight right hand. He has a karate stance and is very quick in and out. He has good movement, and can switch stances and strike fluidly from both. He has a good overhand left. He is accurate with his punches, and does a good job of leaning into his strikes to make them able to land from long range. He has very fluid kicks, and has a very nice side kick to the body and head. He has good inside and outside leg kicks, and will throw an oblique kick to the knee. He does a great job of faking an overhand and throwing a question mark kick to the head. He will throw a nice snap kick to the body. He has very nice spinning heel kicks to the head & the body. He can throw all these kicks with both legs, and it makes him a very tricky opponent. When he starts to find his range, he does a great job of just sliding out of the way of his opponent’s shots and coming back with his own. He does a good job of using a superman punch off the cage, to get back to the center. He keeps a high volume of shots out there, and can overwhelm fighters. He can get hit with straight punches, and when fighters get aggressive and close the distance on him he will back up against the cage. He has a good chin, and good recoverability.

He is a pretty good wrestler, he has good timing on his double legs. He chains together his takedown attempts well, he will grab a single, and go to a double leg and if he can’t get that he will go for the body lock. He doesn’t have great top control, and isn’t extremely physical. He can be controlled against the cage, and get hit with elbows and knees. He does a good job of getting the Thai clinch and going for knees to the head. He can be taken down, and off his back he doesn’t look very good. He got his guard passed very easily by Nicholas Dalby, and was taking some decent shots from side control. He seems like he gets tired in the third round, and starts to fade, but he has heart and will push through the fatigue. He hasn’t fought the best competition in his career, and his best two wins are Nicholas Dalby and Brad Scott, so this is a sizable step up. He needs to keep the distance here early, and stick and move from the outside. If he can time takedowns to win rounds, that may be a good game plan, but I wouldn’t try to get in the clinch with Alex Cowboy or even grapple much.

 

This should be a fun fight. I like to target Cowboy fights on DraftKings because they are usually pretty crazy. In his last three wins he has scored 102, 84, and 109. Those are scores I like if I am paying $9.3k for a fighter. Also, in his last loss he scored 80 points. That is a good score for most winners. I think Cowboy will want to put on a show for the Brazilian fans and I think he will set a heavy pace from the start. Pedersoli also set a high pace in his short notice debut fight. I think he is a decent fighter and I think the line is a bit wide here. I do favor Cowboy to get the job done, but I wouldn’t have lined him as a -420 favorite. The line for FDGTD is -180 and I don’t really agree with that either. I think Cowboy is the rightful favorite, but I see him winning a decision here. I think he will be the one pushing forward and landing more damage, and I think he will get the better of the grappling. Cowboy could still put up 100-points in a decision, but I would prefer to pay up for the guys above him since I like their 1st round finish potential more. This is a decent fight to stack though if you are looking for a stack in your cash games. Not sure if I will go that route, but I think this will be one of the best fights on the card and maybe FOTN.

On DraftKings, my preferred play is Cowboy, but I want exposure to both these guys. I do prefer Do Bronx or Souza over Oliveira, but I like mixing him into LUs with those two and going a stars/scrubs route for a few of my LUs. I also want exposure to Pedersoli so I can try to get Do Bronx and Souza together as well. I don’t want this fight in 100% of my LUs, but I do want it in over half and I will have more exposure to Cowboy. If you are making 1-3 LUs, I think Cowboy would be the only fighter I would use, but if you are making more than 5-10 LUs, I would suggest taking at least one shot on Pedersoli. If he can put up 40 points in a loss at $6.9k that won’t kill you and I think you would still be live to win a GPP if you hit your other 5 spots. Overall, this is a great fight to target and it is my pick for FOTN.

 

Winner- Alex Oliveira via Unanimous Decision

 

Thiago Santos $8,600 vs Eryk Anders $7,600

Thiago Santos (-155) has an 18-6 record with a UFC record of 10-5. Santos is a long striker, and an athletic beast. His left leg is one of the most dangerous legs in MMA. He has brutal leg kicks, brutal body kicks, and brutal head kicks. He has finished people with left body kicks, left high kicks, and spinning heel kicks. He will throw jumping roundhouse kicks to the head and front kicks to the head. He has a great straight punch blitz and can now strike seamlessly in both stances. He will walk guys down and throw heat. He has great power in his hands. He’s gotten much more technical and less dependent on one strike combinations, putting things together. He has been dropped by Jack Marshman and some other guys he never should have been dropped by. His chin is questionable and he has been (T)KO’d 3 times.

Santos did not come into the UFC a great grappler, but he is improving. He has good body lock takedowns, and has good elbows on top. He does a lot of damage with elbows when opponents go for takedowns, like Travis Browne was known for. He has a great get up game and will unload with punches when he gets up, not letting his opponents rest. He can get wild and even fall from throwing kicks, and he was mounted off that against Anthony Smith. His BJJ is not great and he has been submitted a couple times in the UFC. He should look to keep the distance and land his kicks and long-range punches from a distance. If he can keep Anders, or anyone for that matter, on the end of his strikes, they are in trouble.

 

Eryk Anders (+135) has an 11-1 record and he is 3-1 in the UFC. Anders is taking this fight on about a weeks’ notice, up a weight class against a beast in Thiago Santos. This will be a tough task, but Anders is a good fighter and should be up for the challenge. Anders is a great athlete, and a well-rounded fighter. He is a powerful striker and likes to get his opponents backed up against the cage. He will slowly walk forward, and has good lateral movement to cut off the cage, but he is a bit flat footed. He has a nice straight left hand and left hook. He will also dig to the body with his left straight. He has a good check right hook. He has KO power in his left hand and if he can land clean it could be lights out for Santos. He has very fast hand speed and ability to close the distance for someone his size. He has a nice left kick to the body, and will even throw it high, but he doesn’t throw it often.

He has good takedown defense and will punish guys for takedown attempts. He will land hard knees and good elbows and disengage. Markus Perez was able to take him down a couple times, but he couldn’t hold Anders down. Anders has a good get up game and is knowledgeable in the jiu-jitsu positions. He has decent takedowns himself, and when he gets on top he has good top control and heavy G&P. He wears guys out with his forward pressure and he has good cardio himself. He has never been finished, and is coming off a knockout win over Tim Williams. Anders should look to use a jab to close the distance get into boxing range and let his hands go. Santos has a questionable chin, and if he can hit him on the button it could be over early.

 

This is another fight we really need to be a finish so we don’t fall asleep. Both guys have 1 shot KO power, and the other knows that, so I think they will respect the other a bit too much since they didn’t have a lot of time to prepare for their specific opponent. If this goes to a decision I don’t think the winner will pay off their salary even with 25-minutes to work with. However, the line for FDGTD is the highest on the card at -550 and I agree that is the most likely outcome. I think both guys have too much power for this to go 25-minutes, even if they are not striking at a high pace. I think it will end with a kick KO from Santos, or a punch KO from Anders. I think if Anders can be aggressive like he was in his UFC debut then he is a bad matchup for Santos. However, this is on short notice and it is in Brazil, so that makes me like Anders less than I would on a full camp anywhere else in the world. But if Anders can get inside and throw heavy shots I think he will get a finish here. He could also take this fight to the ground and end it with GNP, but I think he will be going for the big shot on the feet. He does not want to hang out on the outside too long though because Santos will tear him up with kicks if he is within reach. As long as this fight does end in a finish, the winner should pay off their salary and likely end up on the winning LU. I am going to pick the underdog here though and pick Anders to get a KO win here in Brazil.

On DraftKings, you have to have exposure to this fight and I think you should have exposure to both sides. I do not think you need to go 100% on this fight though and I would not stack this fight in cash games. My preferred play is Eryk Anders because he is $1k cheaper and if he can get a KO in this fight he will for sure be on the winning LU. I am l going to be fairly evenly exposed to each guy in this fight, but Anders will be the guy in more of my LUs. If I was making 1 GPP lineup then Anders would be the guy I picked. I also would only want to use Anders in cash because we do have to pick underdogs and he is one of my favorites. Santos is a GPP play only for me at $8.6k and he will need to get a finish to pay that salary off. He has too much power for me to fade though and a 1st round KO wouldn’t shock me at all. If you are making 3 LUs, I wouldn’t hate going 1 with each of these guys and fade it with the 3rd. If you are making 10 LUs I think I would want 5 with Anders, 3 with Santos, and fade it with the other two.

 

Winner- Eryk Anders via 2nd round (T)KO

 

 

 

Thanks again for purchasing this article and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!

 

 

 

*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru

**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley, and if you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.