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Walsh’s Way – NBA Daily Fantasy Breakdown for Monday, January 9th


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DFS Army NBA Projections


New Orleans Pelicans @ New York Knicks (-4, ML: -175) – O/U: 215.5

—————Pace> NO: 11th –  NYK: 8th
OFF Efficiency> NO: 26th – NYK: 19th
DEF Efficiency>  NO: 7th  – NYK: 26th

Spread Notes:

-Knicks are great ATS in tonight’s situation: 12-6 at home, 10-3 as favorite, 9-2 as home favorite
-Pelicans are opposite ATS in tonight’s situation: 6-10-1 away, 12-11-1 as underdog, 5-9-1 as road dog

NO:

Anthony Davis has the best matchup on the entire slate, so I’m definitely going to get my exposure here at the Mecca of Basketball. A lot has been made of his home/road splits this season (see below), but he did just drop 58 FDP at the slightly lesser known Garden in Boston on Saturday night. Superstars playing at Madison Square Garden this season have balled outrageous and AD is the next one in line.

The Pelicans do have some other weapons to throw at the Knicks tonight- Jrue Holiday and Buddy Hield are the ones that pop up first. Holiday gets a fantastic matchup against D-Rose, who is ranked 69th out of 84 point guards in Defensive RPM and furthermore, the Knicks have allowed point guards to score an average of 59.3 FDP over the last five games. However, don’t forget that Holiday has failed to meet salary expectations in his last two games. Hield comes with some good/bad as well, but the Knicks are the worst team defending the shooting guard position on this slate.

Langston Galloway could be interesting as a punt play, given the fact that he used to play for the Knicks. He’s faltered numerous times over the last two weeks, but he does have the ability to provide some solid production at a bargain bin price. Solomon Hill and Dante Cunningham fall into this same discussion as well.

NYK:

In the past, it used to be an automatic lock-and-load situation to target the Pelicans, but my oh my, how the times have changed. The Pelicans are now the seventh-best defense in the NBA and that makes things a bit tougher to nail down. However, the Knicks are favored in this game so there should be some optimism for their outlook tonight.

With the Knicks at full strength, it’s tough to pinpoint exactly where the production is going to come from. Carmelo Anthony probably has the best outlook of anyone on this team, but ugh…it’s Melo. Since they are favored, I would expect Melo to finish with something in the high 30s/low 40s, and that’s not terrible at his $7200 DK/$7900 FD price tag.

Kristaps Porzingis and Derrick Rose are priced a bit high for tonight, in my opinion. We’re trying to get the mega superstars in our lineup and these guys would sort of hinder that while falling short of salary expectations- something they have both done more than a couple times in their last few games.

Joakim Noah has fallen back down to Earth since KP has come back into the picture, with two performances of 16.3 and 15.7 FDP. What’s even worse is that he only saw 20 and 21 minutes on the court in those games. This is a guy that I don’t have any faith in at the moment; when KP goes back to being in street clothes on game nights, I’ll revisit Noah’s Ark.

We need extreme value tonight, so I don’t mind Courtney Lee in this spot. The best place to attack the Pelicans is at the shooting guard position and Lee has been in the upper-teens/low 20s over his last four games.


Dallas Mavericks @ Minnesota Timberwolves (-5, ML: -205) – O/U: 196

—————Pace> DAL: 29th –  MIN: 25th
OFF Efficiency> DAL: 25th  –  MIN: 11th
DEF Efficiency> DAL: 22nd –  MIN: 24th

Spread Notes:

-Mavericks are 9-10 ATS on road, 15-19 as underdog, 9-10 as road dog
-Timberwolves are 9-10 ATS at home, 6-9 as favorite, 5-4 as home favorite

DAL:

With JJ Barea back in the lineup, it sort of throws some chaos into the equation for the Mavs. In that first game since Barea returned, we already saw Deron Williams, Harrison Barnes and Wesley Matthews all falter. Yikes! Keep in mind, that certainly won’t happen every time out but it does put enough doubt in my mind, in terms of who will get most of the touches. With all of that being said, one thing I always love to do is target LaVine or Wiggins, since they rank at the bottom of the Defensive RPM ratings, so Barnes would probably be the best guy to have exposure to.

MIN:

Big fan of Zach LaVine and Karl-Anthony Towns tonight…I’m just gonna leave that there. I really like their matchups and that’s that. I really don’t have an affinity for anyone else on this team. Is that harsh, thus making this section of the article terrible? Yup.


Oklahoma City Thunder @ Chicago Bulls (-2, ML: -130) – O/U: 207.5

—————Pace> OKC: 7th  –  CHI: 23rd
OFF Efficiency> OKC: 15th – CHI: 18th
DEF Efficiency>  OKC: 9th  – CHI: 11th

Spread Notes:

-Bulls on a three-game winning streak (3-0 ATS)….a win tonight would match their season high
-Bulls are 10-9 ATS at home, 8-11 as favorite, 6-9 as home favorite
-Thunder are 8-10 ATS on road, 5-8 as underdog, 4-7 as road dog

OKC:

The Bulls have been getting absolutely toasted by opposing point guards since MCW took over the starting role- Kyle Lowry went for 60 on Saturday while Kemba Walker went for 55 last Monday. This makes Russell Westbrook a serious candidate for 100 tonight, and I’m not joking. Of course, there is the chance that Butler (if he plays) that defends him, but that’s not enough of a thought to fade Westbrook.

Victor Oladipo disappointed us big time on Saturday night, but tonight should be a great bounce-back spot for him. It’s been shown that Oladipo usually does well when Westbrook does, and I think we’re all on board with expecting him to have a great night.

I really like the matchups for both Steven Adams and Enes Kanter. Both guys have been balling outrageous lately so I could go either way on this one.

CHI:

-Denzel Valentine (questionable- missed last two games, ankle)

It is Rajon Rondo Bobblehead Night at the United Center tonight…talk about awkward. Typically, we talk at great length about narratives but this is certainly not one that you want to test the theory on. Rondo hasn’t touched the floor in the last five games so this is clearly a situation to avoid.

Good news: Jimmy Butler has been on a freaking tear lately, with at least 63.5 FDP in three of his last six games. Bad news: he’s priced like a water-walking sort of god, a matchup with Andre Roberson (the biggest anti-God of them all) looms and now he’s questionable with that sick bug that’s been traveling around the NBA. Butler is going to be a game-time call, so stay tuned to this situation.

Whether Butler is in or not, Doug McDermott and Nikola Mirotic have been logging some serious minutes lately…and it’s no coincidence that the Bulls are starting to win at the same time. This is a fantastic matchup for both guys tonight, and you’re going to need some salary-saving plays in order to fit those mega superstars in lineups tonight.

If Butler is out, you’ll see a lot of usage go to Dwayne Wade and perhaps Michael Carter-Williams. Wade would likely draw Roberson so that idea kinda sucks and MCW only played 16 minutes in his last game. These are both plays that I would be cautious with. Taj Gibson has a solid matchup, but it’ll be interesting to see if he can capitalize on this opportunity.