This week we head to upstate New York for the second road course of the year – the 2.45 mile puzzle known as Watkins Glen. I love road course racing because of the immense challenge it presents drivers who get limited time to perfect the art of going left and right. It is going to be a tremendous weekend and one where we stand to have a huge edge if we approach it correctly. Thanks to qualifying inspection being the day after qualifying (!?!), this article will be condensed, raw and TYPO FILLED so you can get started on your lineups right away. Lets get right to it. As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research. First off, let me repost my road course warning.
Road Course Racing
So step one to solving the puzzle we are being presented with this week is understanding how Road Course Racing differs from our typical oval weeks – and yes, it’s more than just turning left and right! The buzzword of the week will no doubt be strategy. This is because the time in takes to get around this course means you can pit at pretty much anytime without going a lap down. This has led to a trend of what is called “running the race backwards” or “trying to cross the finish line with exactly no fuel in your gas tank, in order to minimize your time on pit road.” We can expect lots of teams to employ this strategy this weekend more than ever since they can also use the planned stage cautions to map out their race. Every team will have a different strategy to get through this weekend, which means the fastest cars may not find their way to the front based on speed alone.
Another quick note I want to make about road course racing is that not every road course is the same. Infact the two road course we know, Sonoma and Watkins Glen, really couldn’t be more different. Sonoma is all about patience and finesse, whereas Watkins Glen is about aggression and grit. When the media says “that driver is a good road course racer”, we really need to investigate which kind of road course they are good at. Of course there are individuals who are good at both, but there is also people who are better at one than the other. Don’t lean too much on stats from Sonoma when attacking this slate.
There are so so so many strategies you could employ this weekend, but at the end of the day you need to identify one and stick to it. I am attacking this slate like a restrictor plate, meaning I will focus on place differential. Dominator points are going to be so hard to anticipate outside of the first stage, so we turn to the devil we know instead of the devil we don’t.
Top Plays
Kurt Busch – Please note that is KURT Busch. Kurt was a top play before his qualifying time was disallowed, now he is a near lock. He will start at the back, which is tough at Watkins Glen – but there are few better here than Kurt. He has the highest average running position on road courses, and hasn’t finished outside the top 12 at the Glen since 2012.
Paul Menard – Joining Kurt at the back of the pack is Paul Menard, who is not NEAR the prolfiic road course driver that Kurt is. Alas, Paul is much cheaper (7100) – so we will only need around a top 20 to make him worth it. A top 20 is no guarantee, but I like the odds.
Clint Bowyer – Bowyer is a PROLIFIC road course driver, and will take to the track in better equipment than he has ever had at Watkins Glen. While he has showed some speed this weekend, the 14 crew has a little work to do to get him in the top five. However, he starts 18th – which gives us plenty of wiggle room. Bowyer is a good play this weekend.
Kyle Busch – Much like his brother, there are few better at Watkins Glen than Kyle Busch. He starts 2nd, but has blistering long run speed and should find his way to the point before too long. If Kyle Busch doesn’t wreck, he competes for a win at the Glen.
Brad Keselowski – Lastly, let us not forget about Brad, whose heavy foot and devil may care attitude towards racing make him an pernianl threat at Watkins Glen. Brad rolls of 17th at a track where he is always a threat to win. He showed NO speed whatsoever in practice, so I am a little weary. But who is better at getting the most out of a bad day than Brad and Paul Wolfe?
Worth Noting
For the first time in a very long time, Kevin Harvick did not make the cut for top plays. However, he is very much in the discussion – especially considering he starts back in 15th. Personally, I am not super high on Harv as a road course driver, but car can transcend driver here.
Value Plays
Daniel Suarez – Suarez is a super solid road course driver, especially when it comes to Watkins Glen. He finished 3rd here last year, and showed pretty good speed in practice. He rolls of 21st, but should be able to power into the top ten off the back of the supercharged Joe Gibbs machines this weekend.
Matt Kenseth – Allow me to repost my assessment of Matt Kenseth from last year – “Matt Kenseth stinks on road courses, and he would tell you that. But he is a survivor. He usually qualifies poor, races poor, albeit clean, and finishes in the top 15. He should be priced down this week, so he could be an attractive play come Sunday.” This holds true this weekend – one of my favorite plays.
Ty Dillion – Across all series, Ty’s performance at the Glen have always been admirable. Granted, there speed has been abysmal in 2018 – however road courses arent all about speed. Ty is a survivalist and should come out with a top 20 against a 30 place starting spot.
Michael McDowell, Chris Buescher, Ricky Stenhouse Jr – These three all all priced between 5700 and 6100 and all over boom or bust potential. They are good line up fillers, but a lot needs to go right to make them super valuable.
If you need a punt, Ross Chastain is probably your best option. However, I wont be play him. There is enough value elsewhere to have to go this low.
So there it is folks. Those are my favorite play this weekend. If your looking for other guys to give exposure to I don’t mind Bowyer or Keselowski, but both have there issues in terms of starting spot and ability, respectively. Keep an eye on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good luck this week, and let’s make some cash.