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NASCAR Calming the Chaos 8/5/18 – Watkins Glen

Good morning Army, and welcome to this week’s NASCAR VIP breakdown!  We have another fun road course today, this time at Watkins Glen.  Compared to Sonoma this track is less technical and carries more speed, which makes our approach a bit different than what we used there.  Let’s start with the usual and break this race down, then we’ll look at the various targets for both cash games and tournaments.

Watkins Glen

UPDATE: Kurt Busch and Paul Menard failed inspection and are starting from the back.  This essentially makes them cash game locks today, and I hate using that term!

Dominators

Just like yesterday, there are a very low number of laps here, which makes dominator points a very low priority.  In fact, they’re nearly non-existent on FanDuel, so I wouldn’t even consider them when making lineups there.  On DraftKings they’re worth trying to grab a few as a bonus with a stud, but that’s about it.  I don’t recommend paying up for the high-dollar studs starting near the front today like we would a traditional dominator at most other tracks.  There are way too many cheaper options who can (and will) return more value for less, just like they did at the Xfinity race yesterday.

Cash games approach

Even though this is a road course, don’t worry too much about safety here.  It’s generally a pretty safe track, so cash games are just fine.  Of course, you can create some additional safety for yourself by hedging your cash lineups with some GPP ones.

Note: If you haven’t read my intermediate article that goes over how I build cash game lineups, you can do so here (scroll down near the end of the article, it’s under the “cash games / roster construction” section).  It may seem like I’m bouncing around in this article, but that’s just how I build lineups.

Chalky cash plays

We have very few this week compared to last week, though that’s not saying much considering how many good drivers started in the back.  There’s a chance of it happening again today since they’re doing inspection after qualifying, so keep an eye on #nascar-news-and-notes in case something happens.

Kevin Harvick, Brad KeselowskiClint BowyerKurt Busch, and Daniel Suarez all qualified poorly and perform well here.  All four of them are capable of a strong finish and offer some place differential along the way, so they are cash game staples.

Matt Kenseth has a very good floor starting 28th, and he’s had plenty of success here too.  I know his car sucks compared to what he’s had in the past, but remember that skill is very important here (just like at New Hampshire where he finished 15th in this same car).  His price is nice and low, so feel free to go here in cash.

Cash dominators

Like I mentioned before, take any you get from your studs as a bonus today.  Don’t take Kyle Busch starting 2nd hoping that he leads the whole race.  Pay the extra $300 and go with Harvick who can lead some laps while also offering place differential.

Fun fact: if you remove fast laps from the equation and give them the same finishing position, Busch would have to lead 60 laps to outscore Harvick with zero laps led.  Which is the easier one to predict?  That’s your cash game driver.

Cash value drivers (under $7k)

Kenseth leads the way here, followed by Ty Dillon.

Cole Whitt, and Matt DiBenedetto  make viable punts for cash game use, as they have some decent history here and have a very nice floor starting so deep in the field.  I would opt for Ty first though.

Cash value drivers (above $7k)

Suarez is the strong option for this price range.  McMurray makes a good option as well, but if you have to choose between them, I’d go with Suarez.

Blaney could be used as well.  He’s rather cheap considering that his history here isn’t that bad (he’s finished 8th here before), and he’s been pretty good for most of the season.  He’ll be in a spot to return plenty of value today.

Austin has a nice starting position but he kinda stinks here, so I’d save him for tournaments.

Cash studs (above $8k)

I would load up on the place differential studs (noted in the “chalky cash games” section above) and ignore those starting near the front.  Our chalky studs have the highest floors and ceilings today, so we need exposure to them in cash games.

This guy is pretty good here

Tournament approach

As usual, we have several drivers that are risky but also carry the potential to really pay off in tournaments.  Remember though, sometimes less is more!  You don’t need to fade all the chalk and make a lineup full of GPP pivots to win.  That’s asking for too much to go wrong at a track that typically doesn’t get too chaotic.  Instead, eat some chalk and make key pivots along the way.  It doesn’t take much!

Dominators

For tournaments, feel free to make lineups with a single dominator if you want, but don’t try to stuff two of them in here.  In other words, don’t force together guys like Truex + Kyle Busch because it’s very unlikely that they both manage to pay off their salaries together.

TruexKyle BuschHamlin, and Logano can be used as dominators here.  Again, I would pick one and move on.  They’re just too expensive to all pay off at the same time here, since there are cheaper drivers with higher floors and similar (or higher) ceilings.

Value drivers (under $7k)

Jones is a great tournament option and is one of my favorite pivots today.  If you didn’t use Whitt or DiBenedetto in cash games, I’d recommend getting a few shares of them in GPPs.

Outside of him, most anybody in this price range can be used, so I would just let the DS mix and match them for you.  The only ones I would actively avoid will be on my driver’s list in #nillys-garage-nas-mlb that I mark as a fade.

Value drivers (above $7k)

Austin makes a nice play here, as does McMurray.  Pivoting to them over Menard in some lineups could be a great way to get some leverage, as he’s sure to be very popular now that he’s starting in the back.  Or, of course, you could take Menard + one of these two and try to load up on studs to be a little different.

Studs (above $8k)

Pretty much everybody starting near the front qualifies here, with the exception of the guys who are $10k+.  They will struggle to return enough value with dominating, so I wouldn’t use them except for as a dominator.  Which again, means don’t mix and match them.  I’m referring to TruexKyle Busch, and Hamlin here.  Logano can still be used as a dominator, but I wouldn’t mix him with these three either.

LoganoAlmirolaAllmendingerElliottJohnson, and Blaney can all be mixed around as studs.  I would probably limit myself to one of these guys per lineup due to the chalkier guys starting deeper in the field.  Two paired together at the absolute most if you’re feeling really risky.

Remember what I said about Larson yesterday?  All of that applies again today.  Fade him with confidence!

Aaaaaand that’s gonna do it for today.  Good luck, and see you all in Slack!