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NASCAR Calming the Chaos 8/18/18 – Bristol

Good morning Army, and welcome to this week’s NASCAR VIP breakdown!  We have some exciting racing ahead of us tonight for some fun under the lights at Bristol, and I’ve been really eager to dive into this race with you all.  There are plenty of solid cash options as well as some really interesting GPP pivots (quite a few that stand out to me), so I hope to see some big winners tonight.  I’m ready to do my part to help, so let’s get to it!

Bristol Motor Speedway

Number of dominators

A word of warning here: the last few races have had a low number of laps in them, but this week we are at one of the tracks that is tied for the most laps of any race of the entire season.  As such, our approach is much different this week than what we’ve had recently, so be sure to build accordingly!

Because we have so many laps, we’ll need to sure that our lineups are taking in as many of them as possible, but we don’t need to stress over trying to get every last one of them.  On DraftKings I would default to two dominators in all formats, with some sprinkles of single dominator lineups as well.  It’s also possible that a three dominator lineup could be the winner, and I’ll touch more on that in the next section.

On FanDuel I would take at least one dominator in all formats, and would try for two dominators when you can swing it (just be sure they capable of a strong finish too, since that’s extremely important here).

Lineup correlation

Single dominator (GPP only): If you go this route, you’ll want to decide who you want to act as the dominator for that lineup, then fade the others who need to lead laps to pay off their salaries (see list below).  Load up on as many studs that you can (you want those that offer both place differential and high finishing position), then take as many value studs as you can that can offer high finishing position for a lower salary (place differential is a plus if you can get it).  Finally, take your value/punts to wrap things up.  Since you’re only paying for one dominator here, you want a more balanced lineup, which means taking as few value/punts as possible.

Two dominators (all formats): Just like before, decide who you want as your dominators first and then fade the dom pivots for the rest of that lineup.  Next, grab a couple value/punts (you’ll need two), then load up on as many studs/value studs as possible.

Three dominators (GPP only): Again, decide on your dominators first and then fade the dom pivots.  Grab a punt, and then depending on how much salary you have leftover, go for studs/value studs and then fill in the blanks with whatever you can.

Remember, not all dominators are expensive, so don’t be afraid to mix a cheaper one with one or two of the higher dollar ones.  Be smart about where you take your risk, and remember that big tournaments are regularly won with plenty of chalk.  It only takes one or two good pivots to find the winning lineup!

Driver list

Here’s the list of drivers this week, as well as my recommended use for each one of them:

NEW!  I’ve marked my favorite GPP pivots with italics, asterisks, and a yellow background.  My favorite plays for all formats remain bolded.

Cash games approach

Cash games are business as usual here (eat that chalk and don’t take unnecessary risks), but since there are so many laps and because it can get chaotic here, I would recommend running at least two ladders today.  I’m personally running three of them and will be mixing my drivers around to give myself as much safety as possible (not allowing any single driver to be 100% as well as making sure the same drivers aren’t paired together in every lineup).

Note: If you haven’t read my intermediate article that goes over how I build cash game lineups, you can do so here (scroll down near the end of the article, it’s under the “cash games / roster construction” section).  It may seem like I’m bouncing around in this article, but that’s just how I build lineups.

There are plenty of drivers in good spots to make multiple ladders work today, but if you aren’t familiar with that approach, I would just stop at two.  For now, let’s look at who we should be using as the core drivers in cash games  today:

Chalky cash plays

Once again we have a handful of studs starting a little deep in the field, and they are great targets today.  TruexLogano, and Bowyer all start 16th or worse and offer dominator potential and a strong finish.  Suarez and Bowman are both capable of a top-10 here and offer that kind of a finish at a discounted price.  If you need to come off any of them, I would start with Truex only because he’s the most expensive.  He’s a great play otherwise.

Newman is way too cheap for what he can do here, so be sure to take advantage of that.  This is one of his best tracks and he’s completed 15,752 laps (yes, fifteen thousand) here in 33 starts.  He was $8,000 here in April (scored 57 DKFP) and should be at least that much again today.  Don’t play cash without him!!

Cash dominators

Larson has the pole here and is feeling pretty good after dominating the Xfinity race yesterday, so I would start here for cash games.  Over the last three races here he’s led 20070, and 200 laps.  That’s a very solid floor and ceiling.

Next up is Kyle Busch who is a monster here; he led 117156, and 256 laps in three of the last four races here and won the last two races.  You can take both Kyles together as there are more than enough laps to go around here.  Me personally, I’m taking Larson in one lineup, Kyle Busch, in another, and then taking them both in the third (for my three ladders).  If they both bomb, well…that’s why we hedge in tournaments!

TruexLogano, and Bowyer can be used here too, but I would only use them paired up with one of the Kyles.  Running any two of these three together is a GPP move and doesn’t have enough of a safety net for cash games.

Cash value drivers (under $7k)

Newman is by far the best choice here and is a cash staple today.  Like I said earlier, don’t play cash without him!

Ty Dillon and Cassill make solid punts today.  Both perform well here and remember, this track isn’t about raw speed, so their less powerful cars won’t hurt them near as much as it does at most other tracks.  Use them with confidence on DraftKings, but you may want to skip them on FanDuel and go for more finishing position instead.

Cash value drivers (above $7k)

Bowman is another great play today.  His first four races looked bad, but the cars he had back then were junk compared to the #88.  He popped off a 5th place finish here in April, and crashes or other random misfortunes aside, I see no reason why he can’t compete for a top-10 today.

McMurray and Dillon make fine options here too, and both can be used in cash without hesitation.

Cash studs (above $8k)

Suarez is the guy here (not counting TruexLogano, or Bowyer since I mentioned them already).  The rest are too risky (or start too high with a high price tag) to take over him in cash games.

 

Both Kyles will be very important today!

Tournament approach

As usual, the name of the game is getting the right pivots in, but there are also some drivers we can consider fading as well.

GPP dominators

Harvick hasn’t dominated here recently like the Kyles have, but he’s on a tear this season and could certainly do it today.  ChaseBlaneyErik, and Aric make great options too.  Chase has started to show dominator potential, Blaney led 100 laps here in April, Erik led 260 laps here in 2017, and we know Aric is capable of randomly dominating any race.  Feel free to mix and match any of these guys with either of the Kyles, or you could consider fading the Kyles and using these guys instead.

DennyKurt, and Keselowski make interesting fade targets.  None of them have had any dominant performances here recently, and the only one that showed any signs of it (Keselowski, who led 67 laps here in April) hasn’t finished better than 18th in his last five starts.  Still, they technically could dominate, so I won’t argue against anybody who wants to take a shot with them.  Just know the risk, and build the rest of your lineup accordingly.  If I had to pick a favorite out of these three to keep in my driver pool, it would be Kurt.

GPP value drivers (under $7k)

There are a bunch of them here, so let’s start with my favorites and work our way down.  Buescher and Wallace both have high ceilings but lack the consistency/experience here to make me want them in cash, so I would get exposure to them here.

Bayne has struggled this year but has had a few good finishes here, so if he digs deep and finds something he could wind up in the winning lineup today.  Ragan looks to be an auto-fade (starting 15th), but he’s actually had a few solid finishes here and could surprise us with another top-12.  He’s very risky though, so don’t go crazy on him!  I would just be sure to have some exposure to him if you’re doing mass-entry because it’s not impossible for him to surprise us again today.

After that we have the usual band of viable tournament punts; KahneAllmendingerChastainDiBenedetto, and Lajoie are all worth mixing into your driver pool.  To be fair, Kahne is cash safe, but I marked him as a GPP play due to Newman offering a lot more for $200 more.  If you want to use him there, go for it.  I wouldn’t take any of the others there though.

If you are extremely brave, there is a tiny chance that Menard can pay off his salary with a top-5 finish today.  It’s not very likely, but he finished 13th here in April, and that was before he and his team started to really click.  He’s finished in the top-5 here before (he has a much better car now), so it’s not completely out of the question.  If he can somehow hold his position, he’d be looking at 40+ DKFP, which would be a sizeable amount for his salary.  Use with caution!!

I don’t like the super-punts today.  There’s enough value to be had elsewhere that I don’t think we need to go there, and they probably won’t move up anyway.  If you really want to take a shot with them, be my guest..but don’t say I didn’t warn you!

GPP value drivers (above $7k)

Stenhouse looks like another auto-fade, but this is probably his best track.  In 11 races he’s had 4 top-5s in his #17, and he actually had an astonishing 30 fastest laps at the April race.  If he can repeat something similar to that performance, he would be looking at 60+ DKFP, which would easily land him in the winning lineup today.  He’s one of my favorite GPP plays across the board!

Aric is having an outstanding year and has had the best car at several races this year (he just couldn’t put it all together).  He offers the cheapest path to dominator potential and if he finds “it” today, he could be in for a big score.

Byron has an unfortunate starting position so I could see just fading him (mostly because he’s not in the $6k range now).  Still, he could cheese some lead laps (like he did at Phoenix) and somehow stick around to compete for a top-10, and that could be just enough to put him in the winning lineup today.  It’s a risky endeavor, so I don’t love the play, but it’s certainly not an impossible scenario.

GPP studs (above $8k)

Erik and Johnson can be used here, though I like Erik better as a dominator.  Johnson has been inconsistent this season, so you could consider fading him for that, but do keep in mind that few drivers can match his experience here.  Chase had his breakout week at Watkins Glen and it’s just a matter of time before Johnson has his.  This could very well be the track he does it at, so I recommend having some exposure instead of just fading him.

And that’s going to do it for this one.  See you all in Slack!