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DFS NASCAR Xfinity preview for DraftKings – Food City 300 at Bristol

Hello again everyone, and welcome to this week’s NASCAR Xfinity preview brought to you by the DFS Army!  I’m your host @nillyJay and you can follow me here on Twitter to see my NASCAR and MLB content, or you can find me in our Slack channels in #nillys-garage-nas-mlb.

NASCAR isn’t the only niche sport we do  – check out this recent WNBA win.  Congrats baselinej33!

Bristol Motor Speedway

We head back to Bristol today for another race that’s sure to be full of excitement and chaos, and that’s why we love this track!  Unlike the previous two races (that were at road courses), today’s will have 300 laps, so be sure to adjust your approach accordingly.  In other words, dominators will be much more important today than they have been all month, and you won’t get very far without them today.  For now, let’s take a look at how DraftKings fantasy points have been distributed over the last 5 races here:

As expected, the bulk has been taken by those up front, though the drivers starting behind them have mostly been equal here.  A big reason for this is because Bristol is only half a mile long, which acts as an equalizer for talented drivers in lower quality cars.  This is a blessing for us since we’ll need some of those heavy hitters up front

Monster Energy drivers

We didn’t have any Monster Energy drivers at the first Bristol race this year, but that’s not the case today.  It’s pretty stacked up top this time around, so let’s go over those guys first:

Kyle Busch ($12,800) – In a very surprising move, DraftKings dropped Busch’s salary down quite a bit this week, and this is the cheapest he’s been all season.  His ridiculous stat line here is no secret (9 wins17 top-5s20 top-10s1,997 laps led, and 6,437 of 6,743 (95.4%) laps completed over 25 races), and he’ll be a favorite to dominate a large portion of this race and win.  This is also his last Xfinity race this season, and we know how much he likes to win and sweep a race weekend.  Combine that with the fact that he’s significantly cheaper this week, and we have a very enticing driver up top today.

Joey Logano ($12,400) – His resume isn’t quite as dominant as Busch’s is, but Logano is no slouch here.  He has 2 wins and has led 563 laps in 11 starts here, and has completed every one of the 3,000 laps in those races.  If he can get up front before Busch does he’ll have a good chance at dominating for a while, but we know Busch isn’t going to let him do it easily.  Be careful stacking these two (or the next guy) together though, as it could be difficult for them to all pay off their salaries today.

Kyle Larson ($11,700) – Yet another elite driver capable of dominating the race today (told you it was stacked up top), Larson has 6 top-5s, has led 544 laps, and completed 2,241 of the 2,260 laps (99.1%) in his 8 races at Bristol.  He’s led no fewer than 39 laps in his four races this season and makes a pretty safe cash option if you can’t decide between the two above him.  Of course, he’ll have a high ceiling for tournaments as well, it’ll just be a matter of him getting ahead of the other studs and staying there for a while.

Chase Elliott ($11,200) – Chase holds his own fairly well at Bristol, but he hasn’t had any dominant performances here that would make me think he can outrun the three studs above him with the #23 car he’ll be driving today.  Because of that, and due to his salary, I would be very careful using him unless he starts deep in the field today.  He won’t have an easy time paying off his salary otherwise, and will quickly tank a lineup’s chance at taking down a tournament if he can’t dominate.

Ty Dillon ($8,500) – Ty has plenty of experience and success here and comes at an attractive price for what he offers.  In his 9 races here he’s had 8 top-10s4 top-5s, and has completed 2,548 of the 2,560 (99.5%) laps in those starts.  He likely has the highest floor in his price range, and if he starts deep enough in the field, could offer enough ceiling to push some lineups up the leaderboards today.

Xfinity drivers

Christopher Bell ($10,500) – Bell’s first race here didn’t go very well (a brake issue had him smash into two other cars that wrecked in front of him), but that won’t keep me off of him today.  Before that wreck, he led 35 laps (with 17 fastest laps) and was running third on his way to a solid finish.  Unlike the other Xfinity stars, Bell can pay off his salary with a strong finishing position and a bunch of fastest laps, so I like him no matter where he starts today.

Justin Allgaier ($9,900) – Allgair is in a weird place today.  He’s cheaper than he usually is, but he’s still expensive enough that he’ll need to either dominate some or start deep in the field to really pay off.  While he’s certainly capable of dominating (he’s led 235 laps at short tracks this season), he has several big names to overcome to get there.  Still, he could very well go overlooked today and makes a great tournament option for a sneaky dominator.

Elliott Sadler ($9,600) – The same can’t be said about Sadler though, who pretty much has zero chance of dominating or paying off his salary for tournament purposes today (unless he starts near the back again).  He’s always a fine cash option, but unless he starts about 30th or worse, I would look elsewhere for your GPP lineups.

Cole Custer ($9,300) – Basically the same as Allgaier (just a little cheaper), Custer has led 154 laps at short tracks this year, which is third only to Bell and Allgaier for the Xfinity regulars.  I would use him the same way you would Allgaier as they are essentially in the same position today.

Daniel Hemric ($9,100) – Still chasing that win in 2018, Hemric has been solid every single week but just hasn’t found enough to put him over the top yet.  It won’t be easier for him today though as he has a lot more competition up top to deal with than usual.  I don’t anticipate him being able to dominate today, but I do expect him to be in the mix competing for a top-10 (possibly even a top-5) by the end of the race.  Depending on where he starts, that could be all he needs to find himself in a high-scoring lineup.

Brandon Jones ($8,300) – Another GPP special, Jones led 106 laps at the first Bristol race this season and finished 6th in a 79.5 DKFP performance.  He will, of course, have a much more difficult time doing that today, so I would temper expectations a bit.  Still, he’s certainly capable, so we can’t ignore him in tournaments.  For cash games, his history is a little too shaky here (two 20th place finishes in 6 races), which makes me hesitate to use him there.  For those contests, I would prefer to pay the extra $200 for Ty Dillon’s floor instead.

Ross Chastain ($7,500) – Ross has plenty of experience here and keeps better every race.  He finished 9th here earlier this year, and while I think another top-10 might be asking a bit much, he’ll certainly have a shot at another top-15.  For his salary, that’s a pretty nice ceiling, and his floor is plenty solid for cash game use.

Chase Briscoe ($7,300) – Briscoe makes another appearance this week, and while his first Bristol race didn’t go too well (he started 22nd and finished 23rd), he’ll look to redeem himself today.  That was only his second race at Bristol though, which makes me very hesitant to use him in cash games (I’d pay up for Chastain instead).  This track isn’t technical like some road courses are, but most drivers do need some experience here before they get comfortable, and Briscoe seems to be in that transition right now.

Jeremy Clements ($6,500) – Clements has plenty of experience here with 16 races under his belt in the Xfinity series.  His average finish isn’t overly special (22.6), but he’s had a handful of top-20s and even had a top-10 in 2016.  He has a solid floor and if he can work his way up some, could have another high ceiling for tournament use as well.  That performance in 2016 (where he started 12th and finished 6th) would have netted 45 DKFP, which would have return more than enough value for his salary today.  I wouldn’t lock him in expecting him to do that again today, but I wouldn’t automatically fade him if he starts a bit higher than desired, either.

David Starr ($5,800) – Another inexpensive driver with lots of experience at Bristol, Starr has 10 starts here and had several strong finishes over the years (16th17th18th20th, and 24th).  He’s been plenty consistent this season and makes a great play in all formats, as another top-20 is certainly a reasonable expectation.  He tends to qualify fairly deep in the field as well (he started 40th here in April), which just adds to his already solid floor and ceiling.

And that’s going to do it for today!  It’s a busy day in the DFS Army, so be sure to check out what we have going on in the other sports such as MLB, NFL, and WNBA.  For those of you that are already members, be sure to check out the Xfinity research station and my Slack channel after qualifying for my VIP-only notes and driver’s list, which will point out how I recommend using every single driver.  My VIP-only article for the Monster Energy race will be out tomorrow morning, which will break everything down for that race as well.

If you’re tired of missing out on all of the extra goodies our members get, you can fix that right here!  Just be sure to use promo code NILLY to get an extra 10% off the monthly rate.  Until then, good luck today!