Welcome to this weeks Chalk Donkey article for DFS PGA Golf. It’s Major Hangover week as the tour heads to North Carolina for the Wyndham Championship
My name is Josh Thomas, and I write the Chalk Donkey article for VIP’s every week here at DFS Army looking at who the chalk plays are in DFS Golf and who you can pivot to. We’ll look at if you nee
d to eat the chalk especially in cash games, and take a deep dive into some pivots using our Research Station and the Domination Station.
Brooks did it again! The big game hunter took down his second major of the year and his third in his last six tries. The guy is truly one of the best in the game when it comes to pressure spots like this. Whether its the calm, steely, I don’t care demeanor or the fact that he hits it 500 yards off the tee and putts the lights out either way he is making a case to be the best player in the game right now.
I think Brooks benefited by the soft conditions in Bellerive as the course didn’t really play as it was intended to. What is typically a course that requires an excellent off the tee game and a right to left ball flight to avoid trouble was weakened greatly by the soft fairways. If you watched any of the coverage you may have noticed that Brooks did exactly the opposite of what was typically required here. He was able to hit a left to right fade off almost every tee (his most comfortable tee shot) and as long as it landed in the fairway he knew he was good because there was no run out due to the softness. The same applied on the greens as guys were able to fire at pins all week and know that the ball would stick there.
We also got TIGER back! While he contended at the Open Championship it never really felt like he was in it and making a charge. Yesterday was vintage Tiger, charging up the leaderboard from four strokes back and having a real shot at a major again. Tiger’s swing is not where it needs to be to contend and his putter was dreadful but it was all good enough to get solo 2nd place. That says a lot about where Tiger is, and players on tour should be scared if he figures it out. Its not a matter of if he will another major but when in my opinion.
As far as our picks went last week, Dustin Johnson had a poor week and never really contended. Rory McIlroy was equal parts awful as well. The Jason Day fade made some sense especially since I pivoted most of those shares to Brooks Koepka, but Tommy Fleetwood had his worst major of the year. Fading Paul Casey, Bryson DeChambeau and Tony Finau also paid off but we had some big swing and misses like Patrick Reed and Luke List that hurt us and didn’t allow us to really take advantage of those fade calls.
Overall a pretty mediocre week for me and I’m looking forward to getting back after it at the Wyndham Championship in Greensboro, North Carolina.
Course Preview:
The Wyndham Championship is hosted at Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina. The course is a Donald Ross design and is the only Ross design that is a regular tour stop. Some of Donald Ross’s other famous designs are Pinehurst No. 2, Aronimink, East Lake, and Seminole. He is known for his natural design, not moving much dirt to create a course and letting nature take its course and we see that here at Sedgefield as well.
The course has been open since 1926 and has hosted this iteration of the tournament since 2007. It also hosted the PGA tour from 1938-1976. Previous winners here Henrik Stenson, Si Woo Kim, Davis Love III, Camillo Villegas, Patrick Reed, and Webb Simpson.
Sedgefield Country Club is a par 70 (another par 70….) and measures around 7,127 yards depending on how it plays. We get back to the east coach and see Bermuda Greens and Fairways again after a long time spent on Bent and Poa for the tour players. Scores are typically pretty low here with Stenson winning at -20 and Si Woo at -21 (by 5 Strokes) so even though its a par 70, birdies are going to be vitally important.
Only two par 5’s but they both play more than a half stroke below par and gave up 46 eagles last year!
As a whole, the course played over a stroke below par. The front played easier than the back and if I have players looking to make the cut, they will need to make birdies on the front to put themselves in a good position.
There are 2 par 3’s over 220 yards and 2 right at 175 yards. 3 of them played under par last year, and I think that Par 3 scoring might be an important stat this week.
There’s a good mix of long, medium, and short par 4’s this week with the most difficult being the tough par 4 18 that measures over 500 yards. That tough finishing hole could bite some guys trying to make the cut. It could also be a deciding factor come Sunday.
We have added a tournament breakdown tab to the Research Station and one of the cool things it shows is what length approach shot the players are seeing the most. It looks like the most important distance for approach shots this week will be 150-175 followed by 200+. Those are key stats to look at and something we can use going forward to identify players who are good course fits.
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As a whole this course is one to be had by the modern tour pro and its been shown in the winning scores here recently. It’s not long by any means and players who are long and accurate off the tee can find themselves at a huge advantage as while the fairways are somewhat tight, the rough hasn’t been very penal in the past and the bunkering is set for another age where players couldn’t carry the ball 300 off the tee.
The biggest issue players will face off the tee is blind tee shots, but that shouldn’t be too big of a problem. There is a creek that runs through the property and comes into play on three tee shots, but shouldn’t be too big of an issue.
The greens are elevated and as typical of Ross designs they are crowned and anything off line will roll off and players will be left with semi difficult chip shots but the green complexes aren’t small and while undulating they can be had.
I think the key here will be drives in the fairway with the right angle to the greens and hitting greens in regulation to give yourself a chance at birdie. This isn’t a bomb and gouge course as players can find themselves in trouble, but I do favor guys who hit it a little farther as they can take more aggressive lines and leave themselves short wedges into the green.
What is a Chalk Donkey?
First let’s breakdown what I consider to be ‘chalk’. Let’s look at each each price range and what is considered chalk there. (DK pricing is used for a guide)
Over 10K: >25% Anything over 25% in this range is considered chalk, and could even go down to 20%. Some weeks ownership is pretty evenly spread in this range, and some weeks one player gathers all the ownership and becomes a Chalk Donkey.
9K: >20% Again, any time over 20% of the field is on a player in this price range we would consider them a chalk donkey.
8K to 7.5K: 15%-20% This is a little trickier in this range, but I consider anyone over 15% chalk. DK has been jamming a bunch of guys in around 7.5k lately and we’ve seen guys get up there in ownership.
Below 7.5K: >10% Players are priced here for a reason, and oftentimes one or two become what I call DFS Darlings and garner a ton of ownership While you usually have to eat this chalk in cash, you want to swerve it any chance you can in GPP’s.
One thing to remember as you construct lineups, players are ‘Chalk Donkeys’ for a reason, they are perceived to be good plays. Don’t fade the ‘Chalk Donkeys’ just because they are going to be highly owned. Very rarely does no chalk hit, and often times you find some of these ‘Chalk Donkeys’ in GPP winning lineups. Fading the chalk is strictly a leverage play, in that if that player plays poorly you are in much better shape not playing them.
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Key Stats this Week:
In this section, I’ll cover what I feel are some of the key stats this week. We get lots of questions in slack about what to look for in the RS and here are some of the things that I’ll be focusing on this week for the Wyndham Championship.
Before we get into the stats this week, I wanted to provide you guys with a link to some info about Strokes Gained Data. Strokes Gained is a confusing topic and DFS Army member (And Milly Maker winner) @redkacheek has put out a great article explaining how they work better than I ever could over at his site Fantasy Golf Bag. I normally don’t link other sites but this is just too good not to share. Give it a look here! How Do Strokes Gained Stats Work?
Value Tab:
The first thing I look at every week when I open up the RS is the Value tab and at a major it is no different. Who is popping as a value this week. This is pretty easy to find as the better the value, the darker the green box. The value tab looks at Vegas odds and our projections, versus the salary FanDuel or DraftKings have assigned to that player.
Chris Kirk shows up as a huge value here, especially on DraftKings at that price. Tyler Duncan and his 11 cuts made in a row also pops here. Kirk has course history, having played here 4 times in the last 8 years. He’s a player who we want to jump on when he’s hot and I think a 31st place finish at the PGA will give him some momentum to ride on this week. His approach game is always solid and if he can continue to putt well I think he’s a good fit here and will be able to contend. At his price it won’t take much for him to hit value.
Rory Sabbatini has two top tens in last two trips here and was on fire when the tour made the Florida swing earlier this year. A return to bermuda grass may be just what he needs to heat up again.
Steve Stricker is always a cash game lock for me and will be so again here at this price. No course history but a course that requires you to be accurate off the tee and hit greens in regulation? Thats right up Stricks alley.
Field Adjusted Greens in Regulation:
To compete here you need to give yourself a chance to make birdies and eagles and to do that you have to hit greens in regulation.
Hank Stenson pops as usual in this stat. This is a great course fit for him with his accuracy off the tee and ability to hit greens in regulation. If he can finally get his putter rolling this week he will be a great play, even at his pumped up price.
Joaquin Niemann, the stat darling, also hits a ton of greens in reg. and I love him this week. A birdie fest that requires you to hit fairways and greens? Thats right up Jocko’s alley.
JJ Henry seems to show up at events like this and was actually 16th here last here. I like the Barbasol Championship as a comparable event and Henry finished 18th there this year. You know who finished 2nd at the Barbasol? Billy Horschel. I kinda love Billy this week but I don’t love the price on DK.
Shane Lowry will probably be a full fade for me this week at least on DraftKings. He hits a lot of greens and has some excellent recent form, but he has been getting it done strictly with his putter and if that cools off he’s in big trouble. At that elevated price point I’ll probably be fading unless for some reason he ends up being low single digit owned.
Strokes Gained: Approach (Last 5)
As always, Strokes Gained: Approach will be important, but at a course like this where you need to be on the greens to make birdies and par is considered a bogey on some holes, it is even more so. I like looking at the last 5 on our RS because it gives us a good idea of who is striking it well recently. For example if I looked at season long, Sergio Garcia, would look great as he was really striping it at the beginning of the year, but recently has been pretty poor. Daniel Berger is the opposite, not great in season long but over the last few weeks he has been on fire with his irons.
Berger shows up just like I thought he would. He led the field at the PGA in Strokes gained approach. Mackenzie Hughes has been playing excellent golf the last month or two, an 8th in Canada, and two top twenties at the Greenbriar and the John Deere and mostly that can be attributed to his improved approach game. He’s in play this week at that price.
T Duncs pops again. I love this guy and he’s locked and loaded for me at his price point. Robert Streb is interesting. Approach game has been good over the last five, regardless of losing strokes the last time out. He has OK course history but probably won’t be in my player pool this week.
Adjusted Field Rank: (last 15)
A new addition to the Research Station this week is we split adjusted field rank into 5 seperate columns.
We have it broken down into: Last 15 events, Last 25 events, Season Long, Weak Field events, and at courses that are par 70s. The # column is how many of those events the player has actually competed in. So for example, Rafa Cabrera-Bello has played in zero weak field events as he mostly is only in the US for big events like Majors and WGC’s.
Theres a bunch of ways to sort through this, but the one I want to look at this week is how they compete at Par 70 courses.
Not a huge sample size, but these four pop as having the best adjusted field rank for par 70’s and are all guys who will find themselves in my player pool. If we scan across they all have solid % in each column. What I’m really looking for is, do golfers on average beat 75% of the field. That should hit value in most events.
Fantasy Points/Medium Par 4’s:
With eight par 4’s in the medium range for us this week, this stat is going to be huge! I eliminated anyone who has less than ten rounds of data and here are the top five this week.
Webb Simpson crushes this course and you’d be dumb not to have some shares of him this week even at that price point.
Ollie Schneiderjans is an interesting GPP play that I think I’ll be on this week. Obviously he crushes par 4’s. He was 2nd here last year, and is playing some of his best golf of the year right now. He finished 59th at the PGA and 5th at the Barracuda. His off the tee game is always a concern but he’s been able to overcome that and he’s a guy who makes a ton of birdies.
Party Marty Laird is always in play on par 70s and courses that have a lot of medium length par 4’s. Just seems to really fit his game. Mediocre form coming in and theres others in that range that I like a bit better.
Davis Love III is always worth a flyer at the Wyndham as he always seems to compete. Might be better to just bet him to t20 and not waste a roster spot, but he has been playing some pretty decent golf lately. Missed the cut at the PGA but was able to shoot a 66 on Friday, one of the better rounds of the day. So we know he can still get it around and make some birdies. Finished tenth here last year coming in with similar form.
Other key stats to consider this week, that I’ll get into in my breakdown of the chalk donkeys:
Driving Distance, Driving Accuracy, SG: Tee to Green, SG: Par 3 (long and short), Fantasy Points/Hole, and Birdies Gained. I’ll specifically look at any changes in the Strokes gained categories in the last 5 as opposed to the season for players.
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Who are this week’s DFS Chalk Donkeys?
In this section, each price range’s Chalk Donkey will be identified, and a few pivots will be offered. I use DraftKings pricing since that is where I usually play, but their pricing is usually similar to FanDuel and when a player pops as a value on one site but not another I’ll make sure to mention it.
Above 10K:
We have six golfers priced above 10k this week and its an interesting range of players in that you have some world class guys, and guys coming in on hot streaks. Pricing for these weak field events is always interesting and recency bias can lead to some big time chalk donkeys. I don’t see this group gaining any real unnecessary ownership, but there is one play I have no interest in and one I’m all in on.
Shane Lowry: DK $10000/FD $9800
I get that he’s been hot and has a top ten here last year, but there’s no way Lowry should be priced above 10K on Draftkings this week. I just think he presents a horrible value. Yet, because of recency bias and his hot form coming in he will garner over 10% ownership. Not crazy chalk, but enough for me to consider full fading him. And while the recent form is great, he’s not getting it done in a way that suggests its sustainable.
Check out his putting statistics for the rounds we are able to collect SG data on. He’s been absolutely on fire with the flat stick the last two times out. As you and I both know, traditionally putting like that isn’t sustainable. Especially when you look at what he was doing earlier in the year.
His putting is hiding the fact that his approach and around the green game have been mediocre. He’s able to make up for that poor play on the greens and while he may continue the hot streak this week, its bound to unravel at some point and I’ll be betting it does this week. He’s worth a few lineups at an appropriate price on Fanduel but I’m looking at a full fade on Draftkings.
Rafael Cabrera-Bello: DK $10100/FD $11600
Rafa is one of my favorite plays this week and for all the opposite reasons of Lowry. He’s getting it done in all the right areas. Unfortunately we don’t get cheap Rafa anymore after that fantastic round Sunday at the PGA. Had he just shot -2 or -3 I think we would have had a much more affordable (albeit more chalky) Rafa. Either way I’m all in on him this week.
If we look back at the course breakdown, it appears that this is a course that requires accuracy off the tee and for you to hit greens in regulation. That is right up Rafa’s alley and is his game in a nutshell. Particularly if he’s able to hit driver, wedge on a lot of these holes and that looks to be the case.
68% Greens in Reg is elite, and his field adjusted average fantasy points gained is outstanding and is actually 4th in the field.
If we go back to the tournament breakdown and that important 150-175 range, Rafa is #1 on the entire tour in proximity to the hole from the fairway at that distance. This course is set up perfect for him and a 5th place finish here in 2016 is just another thing to help build a case for him this week.
I’ll be all in on Rafa in GPP and if I go up here in cash too. At 25-1 odds I’m also considering a “to win” bet before it drops to the teens which I can see happening.
The others in this range are all playable in my opinion. Henrik Stenson and his string of poor form actually worries me the most. I think if he hadn’t won here last year he would have already probably WD’d. Last year though he came in with no form to speak of though and shot -21 so he’s worth a flyer in GPP.
Hideki Matsuyama is an enigma lately. He’s grinding to make cuts and then goes low on Sunday to have a respectable finish. He hasn’t really contended anywhere recently but he’s played her four times, including a 3rd place finish in 2016.
As I said earlier, you’d be dumb not to play Webb Simpson here with his course history. His daughter’s name is Wyndham too because this is where he got his first win. Narrative!
Brandt Snedeker is slowly getting his game back together and is in play here as well. Don’t let last week’s poor approach performance talk you out of him as he had gained over a stroke approach in the two tournaments prior.
9K:
We get a pretty small range here this week, with two players that should garner a ton of ownership. I’m interested in pretty much everyone here in GPP and unlike usual, this whole range may be a fade for me in cash.
Joaquinn Niemann: DK $9700/FD $11100
Finally starting to see the stat darling Jocko get priced up to where he belongs based on his play so far this year. Behind Webb Simpson, I think Niemann will be the second highest owned player this week. I’m a Jocko fan boy, and will have some shares in GPP but will probably be a bit underweight and get my exposure in cash games.
Niemann seems to have maybe come down to earth a little bit with finishes of 71 and 37 in his last two times out. And I think the issue has been his approach game.
As you look through his approach game, over the last 50 rounds he’s gaining .97 strokes. That number goes down significantly as you go to more recent rounds to the point where he is actually losing strokes approach over his last 5 rounds, including a couple brutal rounds at the PGA Championship where seemingly everyone was gaining strokes approach.
This trend of poor approach combined with heavy ownership (20ish % in GPP) is enough to get me off him a bit. I’ll eat the chalk in cash games but my recommendation is to reduce exposure in GPP and hopefully be able to dodge a chalk bullet here.
Daniel Berger: DK $9300/FD $11300
Coming off an excellent performance on the week en route to a 12th place finish at the PGA Championship, Berger will be highly owned and for good reason. He crushed it tee to green last week, gaining over two strokes on the field approach.
There is some caution here as he stated that his wrist had been hurting him and he stuck it out, but I love Danny boy this week as this is a course that is picture perfect for his game. Fairway, green, birdie, repeat.
Tee to green he is solid. If he is missing greens though he can find himself in trouble. One thing I like is a new stat we added this week Aggressive shot %, which basically looks at how often players ‘go for it’ when they have a driveable par 4 or a par 5 they can reach in two. Players who do this often can rack up the fantasy points because they put themselves in position to score, but it can also backfire. This is a course that rewards aggressive players and with a 66% aggressive shot percentage, Berger first the mold to win here.
He’s also seen some positive line movement this week, with bettors hammering the original number of +4000 and knocking it down to mid 3000’s places. I wouldn’t be suprised to see him at +2800 by the end of the week.
He will be chalky, but I think Berger is viable in both cash and gpp this week and I’ll be loading up on him.
I don’t have really strong feelings one or the other about the rest of this range. I think if you are making 20 lineups, having 10-20% Sergio Garcia is worth it as he can pop at any moment as he’s a world class talent. He’s also a former winner here so the course fits his eye. I’m willing to be 3x the field until he pops because when he does it will pay off big time.
Billy Horschel is probably my favorite play here and I like to get on Billy when his irons are firing. He’s typically excellent off the tee, but his iron game goes in spurts. As you can see below, that iron/approach game has been significantly improved recently.
A second place finish at the Barbasol (comparable course) is another good sign for Billy Ho. I like him in GPP this week. Not sure I want to pay that price for cash with his volatility but I think he will find himself contending on Sunday.
8K
I hate this range as a whole. I’m just getting that out there. I really don’t know how much I’ll play in this range this week (which I’m sure others are thinking also so maybe its smart to get some exposure) Theres one mega chalk at the top and another that will garner some ownership.
Harold Varner III: DK $8900/$9300
HV3 will try to continue his run of hot form here in his home state of North Carolina where he not only grew up, but played college golf. Bermuda is his best putting surface and he should be comfortable on this course. A tenth place finish here last year after a similar run of good form for HV3 is a good sign as well.
Harold has just been really solid lately, but I don’t know that I can pay this price for him this week. He’s probably cash safe as he’ll be chalky there, but traditionally he’s a very streaky player. 8900 when there’s lower owned players with similar upside? I feel like playing him is just chasing a narrative of this being a home game for him, and that’s not always a +EV move. For now its a fade for me.
Julian Suri: DK $8700/FD $9700
Coming off a fantastic performance at the PGA Championship, Suri will garner a bit of ownership this week, even as he’s priced up almost $1800 more than the previous week.
I love Suri, he has one of the prettiest swings on tour. And his approach game last week was second to only Daniel Berger.
If his putter can get rolling, he will be an excellent play this week and I’ll have shares in GPP. Probably not a cash play for me, but I can see some merit there. If for some reason he looks like he’s going to be mega chalk I have no problem fading, but he appears to just rack up top twenties regardless of the strength of the field, and in this range thats what we want.
I have ZERO interest in Si Woo Kim he may end up being chalky because other touts in the industry love him and he won here two years ago but he was pretty awful at the PGA Championship. Anytime Si woo is going to be owned, I’ll pivot elsewhere.
As usual, I’ll just lock Steve Stricker in in cash games and move on. Suprisingly, he hasn’t played here recently but this is a course he can excel at.
The only other guy in this range that I’ll be playing is Ollie Schneiderjans. Ollie crushes medium length par 4’s and is a great scorer. His driving accuracy is concerning to me, but he got it done here last year with a second place finish while being one of the poorer drivers in the field. I think he’s a great GPP play and I’ll have a ton of him there. NOT a cash option.
7K:
With a weak field event we often see ownership spread pretty evenly throughout this range, but there is one player who is underpriced here and garnering a ton of interest.
Chris Kirk: DK $7500/FD $10300
Whoa, its like DK forgot that Chris Kirk was actually a pretty good player. A huge gap in price from DK to FD this week for Kirk. Chalk or not I actually love Kirk this week as he’s coming in with great form and has the perfect skill set for this course.
He really just does everything were looking for, drives the ball well, hits greens, makes birdies, scores well in terms of fantasy points. He’s kind of a slam dunk here for me. He also makes the cut at a super high rate and is one of the par 70 players in the field.
While he’s going to be somewhat highly owned it’s important to remember that you don’t need to fade all the chalk, just some. So if you’re fading a guy like Harold Varner III or Joaquin Niemann its not problem to eat some chalk down here on a guy like a Kirk.
Kirk is going to be a cash game lock for me this week as he presents a great value down here with a pretty safe floor and I’ll use him in lineups that I differentiate from the chalk up top in GPP as well.
Outside of Kirk there isn’t a ton of chalk in this range but there are a TON of plays that I like so I’m going to list them below. First though here’s who I’m fading.
7K Fade List:
Chesson Hadley – Remember when he was good? Terrible form, and terrible course history. Pass.
Chad Campbell – Shouldn’t he be like min price?
Jaime Lovemark – Course is too short to really suit him, plus he’s been pretty poor lately.
Will McGirt – Getting some buzz around the industry but he’s been bad here the last two years and is dealing with a hip injury that he’s having surgery on after the season. No thanks.
Scott Piercy – I’m back on team never Scott Piercy. If he pops so be it. I can’t ride the roller coaster anymore.
Bill Haas – Unreal course history. Unreal bad current form. I don’t know what happened to Billy but he’s been downright awful. Needs something special this week to even make the playoffs.
The shear amount of plays down here are crazy. I’ll mention some more in slack but here are my favorites.
Jason Kokrak – I’m a big Kokrak hater and for good reason as he has made a career out of having one good round and following it up with a poor one, but his string of recent performances have turned me into a believer. 12th in Canada, 19th at the PGA. The guy has been playing some really good golf. (Don’t count the Open, First time there) He’s a long hitter but he’s pretty accurate and hits a ton of greens in regulation. A 16th place finish here last year shows that he can get around this course and we know he can make a ton of birdies. I love him and think he might come in underowned.
CT Pan – Remember a few weeks ago when everyone thought it was CT Pan week and then he punked us and missed the cut? Yeah well this IS CT Pan week. I’m a believer and his current form is fantastic. Hasn’t missed a cut since CT Pan week and crushes these par 70’s that are shorter. His approach game is one of the best in the field and he’s a fantastic driver of the golf ball. Sign me up for all the CT Pan this week.
Johnson Wagner – If you didn’t know this is the last week that guys can qualify for the FedEx cup playoffs and Johnson Wagner is one of the guys on the outside looking in currently. With a quality performance here he can find himself teeing it up at the Northern Trust week and lucky for him, this is a course that he has played very well at over the last few years. 24th here last year and 5th the year before, Wagner can get around these short courses where his distance off the tee isn’t a big issue. He hasn’t missed a cut since the St. Jude and his overall game is in great shape. I think Wagner can contend this week and I think I’ll be adding him to my betting card for a top ten.
Tyler Duncan – Our boy T Duncs may end up being chalky but we’re going to keep riding him. As all he does is make cuts, hit it close, and make birdies. He absolutely cannot putt, but hopefully he will be able to stick it tight enough that it doesn’t matter. He hasn’t missed a cut since the Valero Texas Open….IN APRIL! Thats crazy talk. All in on Slam Duncs again this week
Others I’m interested in: Rory Sabbatini, Ryan Blaum, Nick Watney, Brian Gay, and Ryan Armour.
Below 7K:
Wow….its ugly down here. That being said, if you want t0 play guys at the top of the board, you are going to have to dip down and find some diamonds down here. I think the most popular build this week will be a balanced one, but I think the GPP winners will be stars and scrubs and someone down here will top ten to lead that team.
I have interest in a few guys down here that have either been playing well, have good course history, or both.
Mackenzie Hughes: DK $6800/FD $8000
Since my favorite Corey Conners has been hot garbage the last few weeks, I’m going to be firing up my second favorite this week in Mackenzie Hughes. Hughes has sneakily put together a really good season the last few months with finishes of 8th in Canada, 16th at the John Deere, and 13th at the Greenbrier. What do those all have in common? Birdie fests. Whats this week going to be? A birdie fest. There’s not much down here but I have no problem firing up Hughes in lineups. This course is a good fit for him. He’s not crazy accurate off the tee, but his approach game is excellent and his putter has been good the last few weeks.
Scott Brown: DK $6600/FD $7400
This is a huge punt, but this range is ugly. Scott has finished 3rd here before and we know he can be a birdie machine when he gets it going. Has had a pretty good year so far and actually made the cut at the PGA this week. Wasn’t great on the weekend, but thats more than a lot of golfers can say. Was 12th at the John Deere and 21st at the Barbasol recently. He doesn’t do a lot well and this is more of a gut feeling than anything but I can see him shooting one low round and making the cut this week.
Other possible plays:
(Remember, this range is brutal and these are GPP Punts only! None of these guys should be in more than 5% of your lineups)
Davis Love III, Cameron Percy, Hunter Mahan, Dominic Bozzelli, Matt Every, JJ Henry
Ugh, I almost just puked writing that out.
Weather:
Warm and humid in Greensboro this week. Doesn’t look like a big weather draw or any sort of wind to speak of. Possibility of some storms on Saturday that we will need to keep an eye for showdown slates.
Final Thoughts:
As ownership trends start to finalize this week, I’ll post some updates in slack and make sure to join in and ask any questions. This is going to be a great week and I can’t wait to see some of those green screens and winning lineups!
Join us in Slack Chat this week and lets win some money! I’ll be there off and on all week, but will be in helping build lineups from 9:00 to 10:00 PM CST on Wednesday night getting you guys ready to take down some huge GPP’s!
Also, give me a follow on twitter @dfsupnorth as I’ll be posting updates there as well as useful retweets leading up to this weeks event!