This should be the last day of the Tennis week and man someone fell asleep at the pricing wheel on DraftKings. Tons of value out there along with a small player pool should lead to some chalk but interestingly enough there are enough misprices that I think this slate is still playable. Which misprices do I favor? Well, read on my friends.
For Tennis, I use an odds-based approach, mixing in current form and playing surface history. This article will be free for now and probably move to VIP only when the U.S. Open starts. That’s no reason to wait to become a VIP member with baseball in full swing and football around the corner…not to mention that signing up now locks in your price forever (take the hint). Become a VIP and use code SNIPER to get a 10% discount automatically applied to your account each and every month.
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MY TENNIS ACES FOR AUGUST 9
Slate Locks at 11:00 am ET
Rafael Nadal ($9,300) – Let’s not overthink things to start. Rafael Nadal is a 2.5x bigger favorite than anyone else on the slate and he’s only the fifth highest priced player. The World #1 plays Stan Wawrinka who is coming off of back-to-back extended three-set matches. Nadal has won three straight against Wawrinka and is in the massively better form. Like I said, don’t’ get too cute – you should be playing Nadal in cash.
Novak Djokovic ($8,300) – Well the same logic that applied to Rafael Nadal needs to be mentioned here with Novak Djokovic. It’s pretty simple, he’s the second biggest favorite at $8,300 and is in the middle of the player pool at $8,300. Thanks for the another free square DraftKings? Trust me, things will get more interesting in a minute. His opponent Stefanos Tsitsipas is in good form and on a small slate is actually GPP viable. This is a big event though and the Joker is looking to pick up ATP points and surge back to the top of the rankings.
Denis Shapovalov ($7,400) – Okay, finally some odds value that may go overlooked. Shapovalov takes on our mortal enemy in this tournament Robin Haase. Yeah, I know, I’m picking against Haase again. In my defense, Nishikori looked terrible and Del Potro withdrew on us after lock. On the other hand, Shapvalov dispatched the red-hot Fabio Fognini yesterday in straight sets and the 19 year old is a -250 favorite at $7,400. He also won the only other head-to-head against Haase who is fortunate to be at this spot in the tournament. I’m going back to the well with Shapovalov but I’ll have my morning Mimosa ready if Haase pulls this off.
Frances Tiafoe ($5,600) – Tiafoe has already hit for us once in this article but now I’m looking for him to come through as a punt play. Also, there is someone else in this range I’m very interested in as a pivot but I’ll save that for our VIP members in Slack. Tiafoe is a small underdog at +115 but took out Canadian favorite Milos Raonic yesterday. He takes on World #5Grigor Dimitrov who hasn’t been incredible active over the summer and is 2-4 in his last six hard court matches. I’m looking for the surging young gun Tiafoe to come through with his best career finish at a Masters 1000 level event. And worst case, he’s so cheap he definitely won’t kill you if he doesn’t pick up the win.
That’s it guys and girls! Please jump into Slack and find me to talk about the slate and definitely let me know how we can improve our Tennis coverage at DFS Army. If you’re not a VIP member with access to Slack Chat, join today and use code SNIPER for 10% off! It’s a new DFS game and I look forward to watching it evolve with the rest of you.