DraftKings is trying to throw off our hot streak! Seriously, releasing a player pool at 11:00 pm ET is kind of rough but going to give it a go after we went 4-0 yesterday. For Tennis, I use an odds-based approach, mixing in current form and playing surface history.
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MY TENNIS ACES FOR AUGUST 7
Slate Locks at 11:00 am ET
Kei Nishikori ($10,000) – Starting at the top of the range today with Kei Nishikori who is tied for the second-best win odds on the slate but comes in at an $800 discount from Kiki Bertens. Nishikori is taking on Robin Haase, loser of three straight, including a disastrous effort against 230th ranked Viktor Galovic. On the other hand, Nishikori has won seven of his last nine with losses to Alexander Zverev (#3) and Novak Djokovic…oh, and he wasn’t swept in either of those matches. That’s the kind of form I like to see along with the -500 and $10,000 price tag.
Frances Tiafoe ($9,100) – I promise I have some value coming today but I’m really interested in this match. Tiafoe is a -250 favorite against someone ranked 20 spots above him in the ATP rankings, 41 vs. 21. Tiafoe has played relatively well lately but not lighting the world on fire. The really issue here is his opponent Marco Cecchinato is an atrocious hard-court player. My man has lost 13 of his last 14 matches on the hard courts. Pair that with Tiafoe’s serve and slight odds value, I’ll have my fair share of American today.
Fabio Fognini ($7,900) – Dipping down into the mid-range we have Fabio Fognini who has seen a steady stream of money come in on him since the line was released. He now sits as a -133 favorite and is riding high off of his tournament victory last week in Los Cabos, where he did not drop a set. Steve Johnson did win the ATP Newport event on grass in late July but was quickly dispatched in the first round of the Washington hard court event last week. Adding in that Johnson has lost three of his last five on the hard court and he has never beaten Fognini in three tries makes the Italian one of my favorite mid-range options.
Damir Dzumhur ($6,600) – Have you ever wanted to not write up a pick because you didn’t want to spell his name? No? Nevermind. This is where I’m finding the most odds value today as the 24th ranked player in the world is a +129 underdog and priced at the bottom of the player pool. Unfortunately, his opponent Stefanos Tsitsipas is playing well, reaching the semifinals in Washington last week. Dzumhur gave Del Potro everything he could handle last week and won the only other meeting with Teitsipas. There are no super chalky options like yesterday but I think Dzumhur has some of the best upside under $7,000.
That’s it guys and girls! Please jump into Slack and find me to talk about the slate and definitely let me know how we can improve our Tennis coverage at DFS Army. If you’re not a VIP member with access to Slack Chat, join today and use code SNIPER for 10% off! It’s a new DFS game and I look forward to watching it evolve with the rest of you.