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* MIL @ PIT *
Chase Anderson – R @ Ivan Nova – R
– MIL:
* Chase Anderson: 3-3, 2.58 ERA in 10 home starts/0-4, 4.93 ERA in 8 afternoon starts/Roughed up by PIT earlier this season for 5 runs in 5 innings
* Lefties vs Nova = great success! (.371wOBA/.236 ISO allowed) … Extremely-low 11.1% K-rate vs lefties as well.
Travis Shaw: 11-for-14, 5 XBH (3 HR), 2 BB, K vs Nova
Jonathan Villar: 3-for-8, 2 XBH (1 HR), 2 Ks vs Nova
Brad Miller: 2-for-3, 2 XBH vs Nova
Christian Yelich doesn’t have an extensive history vs Nova, all good, splits work in his favor today. He is a bit risky, though, with a team-high 11 Ks over L7.
Righties vs Nova aren’t too bad either (.311wOBA/.216 ISO) but they are striking out at a 25.2% rate. Jesus Aguilar is rockin-and-rollin of late with 4 HR/9 RBI over the last seven games.
– PIT:
* Ivan Nova: 2-3, 3.02 ERA in 7 home starts/4-2, 3.28 ERA in 8 afternoon starts
* Good history for PIT vs Anderson, and these righty bats are having a lot more success against them this season, hitting for a .322wOBA/.225 ISO.
Starling Marte: 11-for-22, 2 doubles, triple, HR, 2 BB, 2 Ks vs Anderson
Jordy Mercer: 7-for-19, double, HR, 4 Ks vs Anderson
Josh Harrison: 7-for-13, 3 doubles, HR, BB, 2 Ks vs Anderson
Corey Dickerson: 5-for-17, double, BB, 4 Ks vs Anderson
Pirates aren’t hitting a ton of late, but Dickerson, Marte and Gregory Polanco all have a wOBA in the area of .400 against righties over L14.
Elias Diaz hitting cleanup at a discount works too with Anderson’s struggles vs righty bats.
* TOR @ BOS *
Sam Gaviglio – R @ Eduardo Rodriguez – L
– TOR:
* Sam Gaviglio: 1-3, 8.72 ERA in 5 road starts/0-1, 4.13 ERA in 5 afternoon starts (6 afternoon appearances)/1-1, 4.35 ERA vs BOS this season
Justin Smoak is hotter than the sun with a 1.583ops and 4 HR/7 RBI over the last six games… Kendrys Morales in play too, but you know damn well that you wanna roll with Smoak. Understandable.
Russell Martin and Devin Travis are both out of the lineup today = big boost to E-Rod.
– BOS:
* Eduardo Rodriguez: 6-2, 3.63 ERA in 10 home starts/4-0, 2.25 ERA in 5 afternoon starts/2-0 3.38 ERA in 2 starts vs TOR <— what else can we ask for in all these splits?
Righties have had slightly more success vs Gaviglio, but it’s fairly even from both sides of the plate…
Mookie Betts/JD Martinez are popping off with this 10-run total. You’re likely only going to afford them both if paying down at pitching, but we know they’re both worth the price of admission. If you’re only able to afford one of them, I’m going with Mookie today because of the SB upside vs Gaviglio/either TOR catcher… runners are 8-for-11 on SB attempts vs Gaviglio this season.
Gaviglio throws his sinker about 60% of the time… Betts/JD both murder that pitch, but so do Mitch Moreland and Jackie Bradley. Give them some consideration as well.
* KC @ CHW *
Danny Duffy – L @ Reynaldo Lopez – R
– KC:
* Danny Duffy: 4-4, 3.89 ERA in 12 road starts/2-6, 6.66 ERA in 9 afternoon starts/0-1, 8.10 ERA in 2 starts vs CHW this season
Mike Moustakas: 4-for-13, 3 HR, 0 BB, 2 Ks vs Lopez <— Lopez: allowing a 51.1% fly-ball rate to lefty bats, give Lucas Duda some consideration as well, he’s got a decent .214 ISO vs righties over L14. DS loves Moustakas and his .420wOBA/.464 ISO vs righties over L14.
Whit Merrifield: 4-for-12, 1 XBH (0 HR), BB, K vs Lopez <— Lopez: allowed 11 SB this season, tied for 7th-most in MLB.
– CHW:
* Reynaldo Lopez: 2-1, 2.72 ERA in 7 home starts/3-3, 2.83 ERA in 9 afternoon starts/only 1 start vs KC… allowed 4 runs in 6.1 innings, only 2 earned.
Lots of solid BvP against Duffy:
Jose Abreu: 16-for-48, 4 XBH (2 HR), 4 BB, 9 K vs Duffy – Lots of love for Abreu on the DS, deservedly so.
Yolmer Sanchez: 10-for-29, 3 XBH (0 HR), 2 BB, 5 K vs Duffy
Tim Anderson: 9-for-25, HR, 6 Ks vs Duffy – Lots of love for him on the DS today, despite his recent struggles over the last week.
Leury Garcia: 5-for-15, 2 XBH (0 HR), 3 Ks vs Duffy
Matt Davidson: 4-for-10, 3 XBH (2 HR), BB, K vs Duffy
Adam Engel: 6-for-9, 4 XBH (0 HR) vs Duffy
* TB @ MIN *
Chris Archer – R @ Jose Berrios – R
– TB:
* Chris Archer: 3-3, 4.05 ERA in 8 road starts/1-1, 4.42 ERA in 6 afternoon starts/allowed 2 runs vs MIN over 6.2 innings earlier this season. While Archer is incredibly risky nowadays (historically hasn’t been great away from Tropicana Field), we do have a low total. It’s possible that Archer gets inspired and matches Berrios tit-for-tat, but I’d leave that for GPPs only.
The Rays are actually hitting well of late, who knew? Joey Wendle, Carlos Gomez, Jake Bauers, Wilson Ramos and CJ Cron all have an OPS over 1.000 over the last week. Berrios doesn’t have a particular handedness that he’s been worse against this season, but Bauers, Cron and Ramos all have good numbers against most of his pitching repertoire.
– MIN:
* Jose Berrios: 7-2, 2.49 ERA in 11 home starts/3-5, 3.86 ERA in 8 afternoon starts. This game does have the lowest total of the four on this slate, so rolling with Berrios seems like a damn good idea, especially with all of his success at Target Field… and this dates all the way back to last season. There is an issue, however, cost!!! It’s impossible to fit Berrios and a chunk of those elite Red Sox bats.
Archer has been getting ripped by lefties for a .362wOBA/.185 ISO this season. Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler have the best/most consistent numbers vs righties over L14, so that’s where I’m looking initially.
If Jake Cave gets the start, this is a sneaky option that get shed some salary and give you some decent production at the same time.
Brian Dozier: 4-for-24, 1 XBH (0 HR), BB, 9 Ks vs Archer <— the horror!!!