Welcome to the Shark Autopsy Report MLB Edition! Over the course of the remainder of the MLB season this article will deconstruct winning FanDuel lineups of contests where the dark waters of GPP contests are ripe with sharks. Navigating these waters where the sharks smell blood in the water is not easy, but the DFSArmy have you covered, providing you with the essential daily tools to help our VIPs turn into sharks! The article will be released twice weekly, with each day’s article looking at either single entry or multi-entry GPP contests. Each contest requires a different lineup construction.
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We immersed ourselves in a big, a huge, a massive, a wide world of DFS sports MLB slate on Friday night after what seemed to be a very long All-Star Break. But, nevertheless Welcome Back Grinders! Our All-Star Break featured some dynamic trades that could help shape the second half of the season and playoffs alike. Manny “I want to play for a winning team” Machado was traded to the Dodgers. Rental? Or will he sign with the Dodgers in the off-season? Who knows at this point, but the Dodgers were playing great baseball coming into the ASB, and now traded for one of the premier players in the game, they’re going to be more relevant in second half of the season. Another trade that could have an impact on the playoffs was the trade between the Padres and the Indians that sent Brad Hand and Adam Cimber to the Indians. What a great get for Believeland!
FanDuel’s $60K Friday Night MLB Squeeze Contest
FanDuel’s $60K Friday Night MLB Squeeze Contest is a $4.44 per entry multi entry GPP tournament where 16,087 entrants competed for the chance to win the top prize of $5,000. The winning lineup was that of fmazza821.
Top 10
Winning Lineup
In fmazza821’s winning lineup, a 3x2x2x1 stack of Indians, Rangers, Phillies and Rays were utilized. What a great spot the Indians found themselves in on the road in hot Texas facing a relative Gas Can in Martin Perez. Employing a 3-man stack of Encarnacion, Ramirez and Lindor that combined for 77 FD PTs at 28.26% ownership for the tourney field. Indeed, great plays but fmazza821 didn’t win because of his 3-man Indians stack, he won on the backs of 1.5% owned Joey Gallo who hit 2 HRs in the game and Mallex Smith who singled, tripled, stole a base, got 3 RBI, and scored a run. Equally impressive on the night was his selection of his pitcher, who he employed Nathan Eovaldi at 5.8% tourney field ownership.
Dissecting Pitching
On the night there were some high-priced pitching options. Bauer the most expensive pitcher on the slate facing the Rangers, Thor going up against the Yankees, and Stephen Strasburg at home against a hot Atlanta Braves team. How good was Eovaldi coming into last night’s slate? Well, on the season Eovaldi has been dynamic at home versus both sides of the dish.
Against LHBs, he supports a 0.255 wOBA, 0.059 ISO, and a 25.0% K-Rate, even though his GB% is a paltry 27.3%, with high FB% of 54.5% and HC% of 58.3%. Against RHBs, he’s been very good supporting a 0.215 wOBA, 36.8% K-Rate, 58.3% GB%, 33.3% FB% and a 33.3% HC%. Eovaldi struck out 8 batters and gave up only 1 earned run on a solo shot to Dietrich in the 3rd inning.
As a hitting team, the Marlins have been extremely pesky in the 2018 season, and Friday night was no exception. Dietrich homered in the 3rd and 7th innings, Dietrich’s 7th inning homer led to a 5 run 7th inning and the eventual win for the Marlins. But on the season the Marlins have fared okay as a hitting team with a 0.307 wOBA, 0.146 ISO, WRC+ of 89.78, 24.3% K-Rate, 29.4% FB% and a 32.7% HC%. But over the last 14 days prior to the ASB, the Marlins have been a potent hitting lineup! Their last 14 days differentials over their season stats is truly impressive. wOBA has increased 109.33 points, ISO has increased 64.04 points, WRC+ has increased 69.81 points, K-Rate has declined 8.9%, GB% has declined 0.9% and their FB% has increased 2.9%! Regression coming for a team that may be overachieving? Maybe, but targeting pitchers against them maybe a losing proposition.
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Putting Hitting Under Scrutiny
The CLE vs. TEX game had a great number of fireworks on display on a hot Texas night! In fact, 5 homeruns, 3 doubles and a triple were hit in the game. Both teams combined for 17 runs on 34 hits. Martin Perez on the season has been a Gas Can! RHBs are crushing the baseball against him, putting up a 0.512 wOBA, 0.333 ISO, 41.7% FB% and 45.8% HC%, while only supporting a 9.7% K-Rate and 12.9% BB-Rate. This spells doom for Martin Perez, especially against a powerful hitting lineup in the Indians and in the heat of Texas summer!
The platoon splits on the season and over the last 14 days don’t jump off of the page for Encarnacion. In fact, the only bright spot for Edwin is his FB% and HC% on the season and his FB% over the last 14 days on the road versus an LHP. Over the last 14 days on the road versus an LHP, Jose Ramirez has picked up his hitting game and is absolutely mashing! His differentials are vast, with 180-point increase in wOBA, 37-point increase in ISO, and 124.24-point increase in WRC+. Lindor’s season stats on the road versus an LHP are better than his last 14 days on the road versus LHPs. Lindor’s contribution to fmazza821’s winning lineup came mostly by his legs as he had 2 SBs.
Prior to the ASB, Joey Gallo has made baseballs cry and scream as they leave the yard! His last 14 days at home versus an RHP are remarkable. Those that didn’t roster Gallo last night must have been sleeping at the Lineup Lock Wheel, because his meager 1.3% ownership is ridiculous for how he’s been producing over the last 14 days at home versus an RHP. Over the last 14 days at home versus an RHP, he is supporting a 1.583 wOBA, 2.000 ISO, 962.35 WRC+, and a HC% of 100%. The differentials of Gallo’s last 14 days versus his season stats are remarkable as well, with a 1.174 increase in wOBA, 1.578 increase in ISO, and 808.44-point increase in WRC+. Brad Hand and Cody Allen couldn’t stop the Gallo freight train from crushing 2 HRs off them.
MLB can be a very frustrating sport in DFS with the extremes in variance, a hitter might be in a prime spot with amazing platoon splits or reverse splits against a gas can pitcher with woeful platoon or reverse splits and go 0’fer. Even the best in the sport (Mike Trout) go 0’fer on most nights, it’s the way of the sport. But, you need to be able to determine your process and keep the process consistent daily. When you veer away from that process you tend to produce, over the long haul, inadequate to poor performances and your bankroll is affected in the same token. Just Keep Grinding and working on your process and good things will come!
DFSArmy’s MLB coaches and staff works diligently each day on helping improve their members process, and in the same breathe refining their own processes to each daily slate. The DFS landscape is every changing and being a part of a great DFS community helps you to better manage your DFS game and become a better player!
To put a bow on this for you and conclude this installment of the Shark Autopsy Report, there are so many statistics in MLB that it can be overwhelming as a DFS player. Know that you don’t need every single statistic there is to determine whether or not a player is a good play. Determine which stats within the Research Station provide you with the best information to make optimal decisions, read the DFSArmy coach’s MLB articles (Dong Detector, CeeGee’s Stacks, Chop’s Chin Music, Painting the Black with MDell, Walsh’s Wingmen, ThunderDan’s Dr. StrangeChalk, ThunderDan’s Weekend Covering All The Bases, Jaguar Lou’s GPP Jamboree and the Donut Shop by DFSnDonuts), utilize the DFSArmy’s evolutionary taking the industry by storm Domination Station Optimizer and we will help you become a better DFS Player!