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Painting the Black with Mdell: MLB DFS Pitching Breakdown for Fanduel 4pm Slate

Originally I was not on schedule for tonight, but had time to write something up for the 4pm Fanduel Slate. I wrote it all from my phone, so I apologize for the format of the article today. Good Luck DFS ARMY!

EARLY ONLY

Gerritt Cole vs DET

the Tigers are actually striking out a bit more than usual as a team against RHP. They have a 22.4% K rate vs RHP which is 11th in the MLB over the L14. They have the lowest wRC+ in the league in that span as well. The Tigers don’t have anyone that really scares me in their lineup right now. Cole has a few rough starts but bounced back last start firing 6 innings with 11 strikeouts against Oakland. On the season Cole has an amazing 35% strikeout rate with a 2.85 SIERA. Despite the rough couple outings, he still has under a 1.00 WHIP and is allowing just a .180 average against. He’s allowing just a .250 wOBA at home with a 38.7% strikeout rate. He’s expensive, but he’s one of the top options on this early slate today. 

Aaron Nola @ MIA

yes, I know this isn’t a home start, but Nola has been absolutely spectacular this season. He has 3 straight 50+ fanduel point games and has faced the Marlins once this year when he got 53 fanduel points over 7.1 innings. He has been very solid on the road too allowing just a .250 wOBA and is actually allowing a lower batting average on the road. His strikeout rate does dip to 22.9% on the road but Miami has just a career average of .212 against Nola with a 22% K rate. Hitters this season are hitting under .200 against him and have just a .252 wOBA. We shall call everyday Nola pitches an AARON NOLA DAY! (You’re welcome Walsh)

Zack Greinke @ ATL

More of a GPP play on this 4pm slate, but I see the appeal. He’s a bit expensive on fanduel for me today, but he has good history against the Braves hitters. As a team the Braves are fairly average of late in terms of advanced statistics. They do have a higher K% vs RHP than we are used to seeing at 21.6%. Zack has good BvP numbers against them as well. Over 103 at-bats, they have just a .223 batting average and a 27% strikeout rate with a .260 wOBA. He had a rough last start, so that will likely push people off of him. Before that though, he went at least 6 innings in 4 straight starts. He has his struggles on the road, but this slate doesn’t have too many pitching options that I like. 

Sean Newcomb vs ARI

Newcomb has seen his price drop like crazy after some awful outings recently. I wouldn’t trust using him for cash games on this slate, but he does make an interesting GPP option. Arizona usually hits lefties pretty well, but I like the strikeout upside he has today. The diamondbacks have a 22.8% K rate as a team against LHP lately, but do rank pretty good in the other advanced stats. Before his rough two starts, he was doing pretty well. Today is a day to get back on track before the all star break in front of his home crowd. We have seen his upside this season and we have seen his downside. Risky tournament play this afternoon. If the bad Arizona team shows up he could have a nice afternoon though. 

Austin Voth @ NYM

The Mets won last night, but they still aren’t that good of late. This is obviously a risky gpp play today since he’s a rookie. Over the L14 vs RHP, the Mets have the 6th highest strikeout rate at 23.9% and the 3rd lowest wRC+. They aren’t hitting the ball much (even with 11 hits last night, they have a .197 average in L14 vs RHP) and Their wOBA sits at .279. Voth has shown a decent 22.8% strikeout rate in AAA and a nice 42.7% ground ball rate. Risky, but we know how bad the Mets can be. 

RANKINGS

  1. Gerritt Cole (all formats)
  2. Aaron Nola (all formats)
  3. Zack Greinke (lean GPP)
  4. Sean Newcomb (GPP)
  5. Austin Voth (large GPP dart)