Good morning Army, and welcome to this week’s NASCAR VIP breakdown! The flavor this week is New Hampshire, a short/flat track that’s similar to both Phoenix and Richmond. Because it’s a slower flat track, it’s on the safer end of the spectrum (6th fewest DNFs of every track on the circuit), which means cash games are definitely in play. There are of course plenty of good options for tournaments as well, which makes it a great race to hedge cash and GPP lineups against each other.
New Hampshire Motor Speedway
Dominators
Today’s race is similar to yesterday’s (in regards to dominator needs), though I would lean more towards a two dominator approach for all formats on DraftKings. On FanDuel, as usual, you can probably get away with one dominator while focusing more on finishing position.
In 6 of the last 8 races here, we had at least two dominators that led at least 78 laps each (with the primary dominator leading an average of 133.6 laps). The other two races featured single dominators (216 and 138 laps led, with the second most in those two being 27 and 62, respectively). On DraftKings I would approach this weekend the same way; at least 75% of your lineups with two dominators, and no more than 25% with a single dominator (though I would probably lean more towards 15-20% here).
Cash games approach
We have a fair amount of chalky safety this week, which is always nice for cash games. We don’t have as much as last week, so I would probably lean more towards a single cash ladder, but you can always run two of them if you want some added safety. Remember to make use of head-to-heads, because there are still plenty of bad lineups out there that people throw into cash games. As for who the chalky drivers are, let’s get into that now!
Note: If you haven’t read my intermediate article that goes over how I build cash game lineups, you can do so here (scroll down near the end of the article, it’s under the “cash games / roster construction” section). It may seem like I’m bouncing around in this article, but that’s just how I build lineups.
Chalky cash plays
This week starts off with a very good value play; Kenseth is rolling off 31st at a track he is VERY good at. He has an average finish of 11.56 over 36 races, has completed 99.27% of his laps here (which is an astonishing 10,584 out of 10,661 laps), and has only had one DNF. Those are absolutely ridiculous numbers. Now, it’s true that he’s not in a super-fast car today, but remember that driver skill comes into play a lot more at these short flat tracks, and nobody is better here than he is. Cash lineups should start right here today.
Next up is Harvick who starts 14th. While he’s not quite as good as Kenseth is here, he’s very, very close, and of course has one of the best cars in the field. He’s an easy top-5 candidate, and while he hasn’t dominated here recently, he’s done it in the past and could do it again today. He makes a good dominator option, but can return enough value without leading much (or any) of the race.
Next up is Larson who starts 20th today. He’s building quite a resume at this track; he has an average finish of 10.5 over 8 races, along with four top-5s and a top-10. He hasn’t dominated here, and I don’t really expect him to today, but his starting position and top-5 potential give him plenty of floor and ceiling.
Kenseth and Harvick are very good starting points for cash lineups. I would try to squeeze in Larson if you can, but if you can’t make it work with another high-dollar driver, I would drop him before dropping Harvick.
Cash dominators
Aside from Harvick, we have another good option today; Truex has led 513 laps in the last four races here (no fewer than 112 laps at any of them), and only once was that from the pole. Even if Kurt leads the first chunk of laps, I expect Truex to find his way up front at some point to dominate for a while and pay off his salary. He’s a strong option in any format, and I really like him as a dominator for cash games today.
Cash value drivers (under $7k)
Kenseth.
It’s sort of a mixed bag after that, but we have some serviceable options. McDowell and Ragan both have solid floors and decent history here (Ragan finished 22nd at Phoenix earlier this season, and I like him a little better), and Kahne is always a decent option. Chastain makes a decent option if you need to grab a cheaper punt, but I don’t recommend going any lower than that.
Cash value drivers (above $7k)
Stenhouse has a solid history here and starts 23rd, so he makes a good mid-priced option. McMurray starts 22nd today and has had some success here in the past, so he could be used as well. Newman can be used too, but I don’t really like anybody else in this price range for cash game use.
Cash studs (above $8k)
Aside from Harvick and Larson, we have Bowyer and Logano as fine options. I like Bowyer better and would try to squeeze him into a cash lineup somewhere, even if that means dropping Larson. If you can’t, be sure to have exposure to him in tournaments! More on that later.
Kenseth celebrating his 2015 playoff victory. He would go on to win the next race here (July 2016), too
Tournament approach
We have lots of pivot options today!
Chalky plays
Performance-wise, Larson is who I would drop (or go lighter with) first. You could always go light on Kenseth, as he’s sure to be popular today, and nobody is immune from the random chaos of NASCAR or mechanical issues. Harvick would be the hardest for me to pass up, but since there are plenty of dominator pivots today, you could always mix & match him in your stud/dominator pool as well.
Dominators
Bowyer is my favorite pivot here (he led 215 laps at Martinsville, 45 at Richmond, and 40 at Dover). He also has top-5 potential and could have a big score today if he can make his way up front quickly enough. Kyle Busch is a threat to dominate at almost any track, including this one. His brother, Kurt, makes a decent option as well, and could secure a decent chunk of lead laps if he can keep the early lead.
Keselowski has a very good history here but hasn’t dominated in a while, which is why I would keep him for tournament use. Hamlin isn’t in a very good spot (starting 4th), but he has dominator potential (led 111 laps at Martinsville and has dominated here in the past), so he should definitely be in the dominator pivot pool. Don’t forget about Blaney, who led 145 laps at Martinsville and 100 laps at Bristol. Last but not least, Almirola showed us that he can in fact dominate in 2018, and this is certainly a track he could do it again at.
I like them in this order: Bowyer / Kyle B, then Blaney / Hamlin, then Keselowski / Kurt / Almirola. I would have exposure to all of them, because any one of them could dominate today. The main approach would be to mix & match them around Truex or Harvick, or you could use any two of them as both a primary and secondary dominator and mix & match the rest. I wouldn’t take more than two of them together though, as there won’t be enough dominator points to go around.
Value drivers (under $7k)
There’s not much I like here. Menard makes an interesting option, so you could use him as a value pivot. Byron has done well at these types of tracks, so you could include him as well, or his teammate Bowman. These guys would be used in hopes that they score a top-10 finish, returning a ton of value for their price.
Wallace has a high ceiling (starting 27th) but he didn’t have much success at Phoenix or Richmond this year, so I would keep him in tournaments only. He did well here in Xfinity though, so there’s hope, but don’t get carried away.
There’s always DiBenedetto and Lajoie for cheaper options, and I wouldn’t go any cheaper than that.
I would use these guys the same way as the dominators; mix & match them around Kenseth, then run some lineups without him that use pivots only.
Value drivers (above $7k)
Suarez, A Dillon, and Newman all make solid choices. I don’t really like any one of them more than any others, so I would probably set similar exposures to all of them and let the DS do the rest. Just like the first three in the previous category, you would play these guys in hopes that they crack a top-10 finish and return some hefty value.
Studs (above $8k)
Almirola and Jones lead the way here, though Johnson and Elliott both make decent options. Bowyer and Logano can also be used here, but we already touched on them. Everybody else above them has to dominate to really pay off, so they can’t be used in this category.
Help me name this section!
Starting this week, I’m going to list my favorite GPP pivots/plays for each category. I stole the idea from the MMA guys, but I don’t think “killshot” is very applicable here. So, how about you guys come up with a catchy name for it instead?
Dominator: Bowyer (dom pivot)
Value (under $7k): Byron
Value (over $7k): Suarez
Stud: Almirola (stud pivot)
Good luck today!