Donut Shop – MME Playbook for MLB DFS on FanDuel and DraftKings
At this point in the season with the amount of research and knowledge we have about splits and trends, it is a great time to start to focus in a little more on our exact MME strategy and try to nail down the perfect exposures. This is a more volatile strategy compared to the beginning of the season where we really tried to hedge quite a bit. Now, we are more or less trying to plant our flag behind a handful of targets and teams and increase our possibilities and opportunities to take a GPP down.
Our goal is to have as many “runners” as we can have headed for the top of the standings. We can give a lineup, or multiple lineups, legs to run by having a smaller player pool and higher exposure.
Let’s say we have 100-lineups and we target the Astros as a team to stack for 40% of those lineups. If the Astros go off for 10+ runs then we now have 40 lineups out of our original 100 that are likely screaming up the standings. Now out of those 40-lineups with the Astros, we want to make sure we don’t have 7 different pitchers for those 40 teams. We likely would want to target only several different pitchers so that if one of the pitchers (let’s say, CC Sabathia) goes off for 45 FanDuel or 25 DraftKings points and he’s on 25 of those 40 Astros stacks, we now have 25 lineups out of the 40 that have serious potential for hitting the top of the standings.
Also – if you’re new to MLB DFS or the DFSA, then this page should be open in a separate tab every single day you plan on playing.
Before we get started I want to share a personal accomplishment that I am very proud of. It took me a year of researching, licensing, and acquiring the right equipment, but I finally was able to publish my very first podcast and upload to Podbean and YouTube!
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Episode 2 discusses a bit of MME strategy and the importance of how to celebrate Independence Day.
Let’s get to work!
Pitchers and Stacks Guidelines for FanDuel and DraftKings
The following advice is okay to be used on FanDuel and DraftKings for anywhere between 20-150 lineup entries. It’s important that the more lineups you make the higher the exposure cap I find acceptable. I.E., if you have 150 lineups, I don’t mind having the max exposure set at 60-70%. The fewer lineups you have, let’s say 20-50, I really don’t want more than 50% exposure to any one team or pitcher. Make sure you adjust this on that sliding scale. *The more lineups you have the higher the acceptable max exposure limit – vice versa*
Pitchers Guidelines
Make sure you have a minimum of 5-10% on each of the following, however, similar to our max exposure guidelines above – the more lineups you have the more acceptable it is to target any one player or stack with a higher exposure. If you have 150 lineups and love CC Sabathia, then throw 20% minimum on him which would result in 30 lineups out of your 150. If you only have 20 lineups, you might want to just have 10% or so which would result in a minimum of 2 lineups with CC. *Just remember, your pitching percentage on DraftKings is 200% total due to there being 2 pitching slots. I am normally more apt to have a higher minimum exposure on DK just due to the two pitcher spots*
Stacking Guidelines
The first “group” of teams are your primary targets. Your goal is to make sure that you have the largest portion of lineups with these teams fully stacked with the 4-4 settings and 2 or 3 uniques (2 on slates that are smaller and 3 on the larger slates).
The second “group” of teams are your secondary and tertiary targets. You’ll want to sprinkle them in a little on their own and a few of them with your favorite teams from the first group.
MME Playbook for FanDuel
Pitchers:
Andrew Heaney (@LAD 4.0 IRT, +115 Dog)
*Has only allowed a 21% hard-hit rate over his last two starts and has 10-K’s in each game.* He’s scored over 40 FD points in 4 of his last 5 starts.
Jon Gray (SEA 5.2 IRT, -169 Fav)
*He has 9+ strikeout potential and the Mariners likely sit Cruz again against a right-handed pitcher with no DH. He’s a rare breed as he has solid splits at home for the Rockies over the last two seasons. Always low owned when in COL and should be in line for the win and possible quality start bonus on FanDuel*
Kyle Hendricks (@SD 3.4 IRT, -177 Fav)
*Only in play because he’s at SD, other than that he’s been pretty poor. His advanced stats are showing well over his last two starts (178 foot batted ball distance, 30% hard-hit rate, and 68% strike ratio).*
Tier 1 Stack Targets:
COL
CHC
Tier 2 Stack Targets:
BAL/TEX game stack
SEA/COL game stack
NYY/CLE game stack
OAK
SEA
MME Playbook for DraftKings
Pitchers:
CC Sabathia (@CLE 4.5 IRT, -105 Fav)
Mike Clevenger (NYY 4.6 IRT, -103 Fav)
*Both of these guys are under-priced for their form and talent. The price is clearly lower than normal due to the match-up with a potent offense, however, this is a prime spot to target for MME and GPPs. I’ll be overweight on these two compared to the field.*
Jon Gray (SEA 5.2 IRT, -169 Fav)
*He’s priced at value but has 35 point upside. Clearly will be a volatile play but one that could pay off massive dividends and someone I will be targeting for MME*
Wade LeBlanc (@COL 7.2 6.9 IRT, +156 Dog)
*This is the type of guy you put 10% exposure on for DraftKings and also top his maximum off at like 15% exposure. He’s simply just a nice leverage play against the field which should own tons of shares of Rockies players and stacks. Leveraging the field and hedging our own exposure to the Rockies is not a bad play. It will lower your earning potential but also raises your floor.*
Tier 1 Stack Targets:
COL/SEA
COL
TEX
Tier 2 Stack Targets:
SEA
TEX/BAL game stack
NYY/CLE game stack
Helpful Hints for Using the Domination Station
- If you ever ask for 10-lineups with your stacks/pitchers/settings and it spits back less than you asked for – you have two options.
- You can choose to just download, highlight and copy, then paste those into your final upload file and roll with those
- You can simply just ask the DS to create 20/25 lineups and when it makes more than the 10 you asked for just download, highlight and copy the first 10, then paste those 10 into your final upload file and roll with those. I don’t get too scientific with this as I normally am pressed for time.
- When my pitching pool is bigger than 3 or 4 pitchers, I try to just set a 20% minimum on my favorite 1 or 2 pitchers only when running my stack from my primary Group 1. This ensures that if I run an Astros and Braves stack for 10 lineups, that I make sure that CC Sabathia is in 2 of those 10 lineups. If I start asking the DS to have minimum % on multiple pitchers – this is when the DS only spits back 3 or 4 out of the 10 lineups I asked for.
- I run 4-4 on FanDuel for every single lineup.
- I run 3-5 on DraftKings for each stack for half of what I want then 5-3 for the other half. 5 out of 10 would be 3-5 then 5-3 for the other 5 making 10 total stacks with the two teams I had selected. If that is confusing or too time-consuming just use 4-4 for all 10 and you are good to go!
- Let’s say you are making 150 lineups and you did all your groups/pairings and were able to create 110 of your 150 stacks and you realize you don’t have any more ideas. Take those last 40 lineups and get crazy. This is when you start to create some stacks with teams you never feel comfortable about but that might be in a decent spot. Padres facing a left-handed pitcher that gives up a lot of fly balls – go ahead and run the Padres at 100% exposure (in the stack settings) and leave the other 100% open (don’t label any other team). As long as the settings are at 3-5 on DK or 4-4 on FD – the DS will automatically make full stacks 3/5 and 4/4 with whatever team it deems most optimal to go with the Padres. That’s a next level tip that nearly nobody knew about until you read this!
- Tag me on Twitter and in Slack with your triumphant victory!
- Read this very important page – MLB BASIC TRAINING – Tutorials, Videos, Articles to Help You Get Started
- I and my friend Ram8727 put together this tutorial for anybody who needs help with the DS optimizer and CSV files when using a Chromebook or operating system that’s giving you errors. CLICK ME CLICK ME!
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This process will likely be tweaked and manipulated as the season progresses and the DFS landscape shifts every so often as it normally does. As always, I will continue to share my findings with you in the hopes that we are able to find an edge over our competition!
Fortune favors the bold. Go make your own luck!
– Donuts