Welcome to another Saturday night card. In what seems like forever we haven’t lost a single fight this week. Which means we have a 13 fight card to choose from. The big thing this week is there aren’t many big favorites. This makes lineup construction interesting in both cash and tournaments. There is even merit to avoiding stacking a fight in cash. If this is the route you go I think it’s a good idea to ladder up your lineup or in the very least considering playing it in single entry GPP’s as well as your cash contests. I know I say this every week but I can’t stress this enough and want to pound this in your head. While chasing after the big payout is enticing please remember bankroll management. I am a firm believer in the 80-20 rule. Which is 80% of your allocated bankroll for the night in cash games and 20% in tournaments. Remember to take advantage of our Research Station and Domination Station. Plus check out the our podcast, and follow me on Twitter (@MMA_Nerd77) for the latest MMA and DFS Army news! Let’s break down these fights.
For those of you new to MMA here is a breakdown of scoring used on draftkings.
DFS MMA UFC Fight Night 133 Fighter Advice
Fights to Target In Cash
First off before I give breakdowns here. What we are looking for in cash games is safety with a nice floor. It might be taking a high priced favorite in a good spot. It could also be a value play based on odds and pricing. Often times in cash I will look to stack a fight specifically if it has the potential to go 5 rounds (always the main event on card or a championship fight). Now both sides of a fight may not be cash viable in a fight at least 1 of them is under this group.
Volkanovski (-280) 9.2k vs Elkins (+255) 7k
Volkanovski is an aggressive fighter and has very good takedowns (he lands them at a rate of 4.46 per fight). Elkins is coming into this fight having won his last 6 in a row. While he has shown his toughness in all of them he has realistically been losing in all of them. For cash games I am locking Volkanovski in and moving on.
Let’s dig deeper into this match for tournament purposes.
Pulling our projections straight from our Research station. You can see the tremendous numbers Volkanovski has. While he is the most expensive fighter on the card he has the highest score projection and also the best value overall. Elkins has the lowest projected score and the 3rd worst value on the card. I am going to trust the numbers to confirm my thoughts all week. Volkanovski is someone I will have very high exposure to in tournaments and Elkins is someone I will be either completely fading.
Dos Santos (-170) 8.7k vs Ivanov (+160) 7.5k
Dos Santos is a good striker and lands at a solid rate of 4.89 Significant Strikes per minute (SS’s). Ivanov is making his UFC debut. We don’t have many raw stats to go off of with him. From what I can tell he is a Sambo fighter and is good all-around. Now I know what you are thinking. This is the main event so let’s stack in cash and move on. This is 1 approach you can take and I am perfectly fine with that. If you want to be less conservative though I think another approach is only using Dos Santos.
This isn’t an approach I normally use in cash but with very few heavy favorites on the card it’s a solid approach as well. Plus with the way salaries are on Draftkings this week we will be forced to make some decisions we aren’t completely comfortable with. Right now I am leaning towards only using Dos Santos in my cashbuild.
In tournaments I think you need 80-100% exposure to this fight. Looking at Vegas odds they expect this to end Inside The Distance (ITD) -245. This is a heavyweight fight so anything is possible. I will be heavier on Dos Santos but, I will hedge some with Ivanov. In a win he would exceed value by a large margin.
Bermudez (-215) 9k vs Glenn (+195) 7.2k
Bermudez is a good wrestler and has solid TD’s (3.60 per fight). Glenn comes into this fight with a size and reach advantage. He is an ok striker and has solid elbows. While Bermudez has recently strayed away from his wrestling and tried to outstrike his opponent I don’t think he will this time. I think he goes back to his bread and butter and lands multiple TD’s in a decision win.
Our Research Station agrees with me and he has the 2nd highest win percentage behind only Volkanovski. I think he presents solid value on draftkings in cash as he is the 3rd most expensive on the slate.
In tournament’s I don’t like Bermudez as much. He has shown to lack cardio at times and has also shown to have a suspect chin. This doesn’t mean I want a ton of exposure to Glenn though. I think the best way to attack this fight in GPP’s is to have some shares of both. With slightly higher ownership of Bermudez of the 2.
Mendes (-135) 8.9k vs Jury (+125) 7.3k
Now to what most likely will be one of the chalky cash punts on the card. Jury is a good striker and has a solid jab. He also is a black belt in Jiu Jitsu. Mendes is coming into this fight on almost a 3 year suspension. Prior to that he was a good wrestler and a decent striker. I really like the line value Jury has here and have no problem with using him in cash.
In tournaments I think he makes for a strong play as well. I do think Mendes makes for an interesting play as well though. I don’t think he will be overly popular. Most will still remember the chin issues he showed prior to his suspension and I believe this will make some hesitant to roster him at his draftkings price. Vegas is split 50/50 on if those goes to decision or not. So, while I do like both in tournaments I won’t have heavy exposure to either.
Brown (-120) 8.3k vs Price (+110) 7.9k
Brown is a decent striker who has ok jabs as well as kicks. Price is a dangerous fighter in the aspect he can hurt his opponent via standing or by landing a TD. Vegas thinks this fight will most likely end inside the distance with a prop of -125.
Now earlier in the week vegas had Price as the favorite and since he has flipped to the dog. So. I bet you think Brown is my cash target here. That is not the case whatsoever. A feature I really like to use on our Research Station is a fighters value overall in our protections. Let’s see if it agrees with me or Vegas.
As you can see Price has the edge there. I think Price makes for a very solid cash punt.
Now in tournaments since both are priced almost equally I will have exposure to both. My preferred play of the 2 is Price.
Fights to Target in Tournaments
Unlike the cash fights from above. These tournament fights carry greater risk. While they may have a lower floor these fights have higher ceilings. Which when mixed with the right amount of cash plays can yield huge dividends in tournaments.
Northcutt (-140) 8.4k vs Ottow (+130) 7.8k
Northcutt is a solid striker and has good leg kicks. In his most recent fights he has also showed the ability to land some TD’s. Ottow is ok overall. He isn’t really impressive anywhere. His biggest asset is his toughness.
My initial reaction when I saw this fight on the card was ok I am fading Northcutt for sure. But, then I thought about it and that’s everyone’s first reaction. I am not sure what his ownership will be in tournaments but with an ITD prop of +178 I am planning on having exposure to him. I think Ottow is worth using in 1-2 lineups if you are running 15+ lineups. Overall I think the better tournament play is Northcutt.
Garcia (-135) 8.6k vs De La Rosa (+125) 7.6k
Garcia has good kicks and is fairly solid on the ground. He also has good submissions. De La Rosa is solid overall and has shown the ability to land takedowns.
Vegas is projecting this fight to end ITD. Let’s use another feature from our Research Station and see if either of these 2 are worth targeting in tournaments.
Garcia obviously is projected more likely to win. But his salary on Draftkings puts him in a difficult range. There are too many fighters I think that either have a safer floor or more upside. I likely won’t have a ton of exposure to him at all. De La Rosa interests me more at his price. I think he will be less owned then fighters priced similar to him. I think this makes him a solid GPP punt at a fairly low ownership.
Nurmagomedov (-130) 8.5k vs Scoggins (+120) 7.7k
Nurmagomedov while his last name looks familiar is not the same kind of fighter Khabib is. He has very good stand up and good leg kicks. Scoggins is a good striker and has solid TD’s (4.02 per fight). Scoggins main problem is his lack of Fight IQ. Meaning he often times will be dominating a fight and leaves his head and neck exposed. The end result of him doing this is getting submitted.
Vegas is thinking it’s very likely this fight goes to a decision. I think both fighters are viable in tournaments. My preferred play is Scoggins. I think many will be hesitant to roster him on draftkings and he has potential to put up a very solid score for his price. In turn I think it’s a good strategy to get some exposure to Nurmagomedov in case Scoggins goes Scoggins again.
Perez (-165) 9.1k vs Wineland (+155) 7.1k
Perez is riding in on a 3 fight win streak. He is just a solid all-around fighter. Wineland is a veteran in the octagon. He is a good striker. Neither 1 of these 2 look to land TD’s. Sp basically this is going to turn into a striking battle. Plus Vegas has this going to a decision. Perez priced at 9.1k on draftkings is not even coming close to reaching value in a striking battle that goes to decision. Wineland doesn’t interest me much at all either. Overall this is a fight a will have very limited exposure to.
Holobaugh (-170) 8.8k vs Barcelos (+160) 7.4k
Holobaugh is a solid striker and has decent power. Barcelos is a good striker that has power as well. Vegas likes this 1 to end inside the distance (-135). Let’s take 1 final look at our Research Station and see what it tells us here.
So basically Domination Station is saying Holobaugh ends it early or Barcelos will grind it into the later rounds. Which in turn makes me want to be sure to have both of these 2 in my fighter pool in MME Gpp’s. I will have exposure to both ends of this fight.
Most Fade Worthy Fights on Card
I honestly think all the female fights on this card are fadable. All 3 lack upside and all 3 are likely to go to decision. I will list all 3 fights here. I will save you the breakdowns. They aren’t pretty.
Reneau (-125) 8.1k vs Zingano (+105) 8.1k
Carmouche (-120) 8.2k vs Maia (+110) 8k
Esquibel (-130) 8.3k vs Aguilar (+120) 7.9k
Sorry for the article coming out later than usual. Let’s crush it tonight!
See everyone in Slack! If you are new to the sport of MMA, let us teach you the fundamentals. Become a VIP at DFS Army right now before prices go up!!
Good Luck Army!