We are back after another brief hiatus from MMA. The 4th of July was more than just the fireworks you were enjoying. UFC dealt some of their own. Not in a good way that is. The card took a huge hit in losing the co-main event Max Holloway vs Brian Ortega. Yes, this sucks! But, there is still some big tournaments out there. While chasing after the big payout is enticing please remember bankroll management. I am a firm believer in the 80-20 rule. Which is 80% of your allocated bankroll for the night in cash games and 20% in tournaments. Remember to take advantage of our Research Station and Domination Station. Plus check out the our podcasts, and follow me on Twitter (@MMA_Nerd77) for the latest MMA and DFS Army news! Let’s break down these fights.
I am going with a different format for the article this week. Please give me your feedback via Twitter and Slack to let me know what you think.
DFS MMA UFC 226 Fighter Advice
Fights to Target In Cash
First off before I give breakdowns here. What we are looking for in cash games is safety with a nice floor. It might be taking a high priced favorite in a good spot. It could also be a value play based on odds and pricing. Often times in cash I will look to stack a fight specifically if it has the potential to go 5 rounds (always the main event on card or a championship fight). Now both sides of fight may not be cash viable under here at least 1 of them is under this group.
Miocic (-220) 8.9k vs Cormier (+200) 7.3k
Starting off with the main event in cash games. I have absolutely no problems with stacking this fight and moving on. Let’s analyze this quickly for tournament purposes.
Miocic is a good striker and has solid power. He is also a good wrestler (Division 2 in college). Cormier is the current light heavyweight champion moving up a weight class. Although he did previously fight in the heavyweight class and he will be the first to say he is undefeated in it. Cormier is a ok striker. He is a solid wrestler and good in the clinch.
Both fighters land at a solid rate as well as with takedowns as you can see above from looking at our Research Station stats broken down per round. I think both are very much in play in tournaments. Whomever wins will most likely be in the optimal lineup. I am undecided on my exposure in tournaments but my lean is Miocic.
Ngannou (-365) 9.3k vs Lewis (+305) 6.9k
Ngannou is one of my favorite plays on the entire card. I will have heavy exposure to him in tournaments as well!
Let’s get to why I like him in cash. First off he is a good striker and has big power. Vegas likes this fight to end inside the distance (-400). Not only does Vegas think this, if you dig deeper into the odds they like it to be Ngannou to be the one to do so. He has an Inside the Distance prop of (-180). At Ngannou’s price and odds I am personally looking him in my cash lineup. Obviously with those kinds of numbers I like him in tournaments as well.
Lewis has good power and is a ok striker. Since this is MMA and anything can happen I will have a few lineups with Lewis. I would only recommend this if you are running more than 10-12 lineups.
Costa (-400) 9.4k vs Hall (+325) 6.8k
Costa is a high output striker (8.28 Significant Strikes Per Minute) and has good power. This is another fight Vegas believes will end inside the distance (-400). To go along with that Costa as a very juicy ITD prop of (-196). I like Costa in all formats.
In large field tournaments I will take a few shots with Hall though. He is a solid striker and has decent power. He lands at a good rate of 3.13 SS’s. With the high ITD prop and the likelihood Costa will be 1 of the highest owned fighters on the card. I think it’s a perfect storm to have a few shares of Hall at relatively low ownership.
Felder (-155) 7.4k vs Perry (+135) 8.8k
Now to the mispricing on this card. Felder will be the chalkiest fighter in cash and I have no problem eating it. Everyone will have him. I will lock him in and hope to be different elsewhere. Let’s cover this for tournaments now.
Felder is a good striker and throws good leg kicks along with elbows. Perry is also a good striker and has big power.
Both of these 2 land at a good rate as you can see from above. With how popular Felder will be in cash I am assuming he will be chalky in tournaments as well. This actually wants me to have a good dose of Perry in tournaments. I will be sure to have a good amount of both. This is not a fight I will have 100% exposure to overall but, will have a healthy dose of.
Hooker (-120) 8.5k vs Burns (+100) 7.7k
Just looking at the odds compared to pricing on draftkings you can see there is obvious value on Burns in cash. He is a solid striker with good power. He is also dangerous on the ground with his submissions. Throw into the mix that he also gets takedowns and look at that fantasy goodness for the price. I love Burns in cash as well as tournaments.
Hooker as a good jab and knees. He also has a pretty solid chin. So, while I do like Burns a lot I will hedge in contests I am running more than 10 lineups just to play it safe.
Fights to Target in Tournaments
Unlike the cash fights from above. These tournament fights carry more risk. While they may have a lower floor these fights have higher ceilings. Which when mixed with the right amount of cash plays can yield huge dividends in tournaments.
Saki (-130) 8.4k vs Rountree (+110) 7.8k
This might be my favorite fight to target in this category. The inside the distance prop of (-515) is the main reason. Not to mention the salaries of both fighters on DraftKings.
Saki is a solid striker and has decent power. He is also a former kickboxing champ so you know he has power in his kicks as well. Rountree is a decent striker with good power. When looking into their stats Saki lands at a much higher rate. Granted his data is off a bit with this data only coming from 1 fight. I honestly don’t know who to favor in this spot. I think the best strategy is to have equal shares of both. I will most likely be close to 100% exposure to this fight in tournaments.
Chiesa (-160) 8.6k vs Pettis (+140) 7.6k
This is a fight that was supposed to happen a view months ago but, Conor McGregor threw a wrench in that (or should I say dollie). Ok all joking aside.
Chiesa is a good wrestler and has solid TD’s. Pettis is a good striker. He has shown recently that he can have problems stopping the TD though. Even though I like Chiesa to get the win I am not sure I like him as a play on draftkings. Vegas likes this fight to go to a decision. So, if for some reason Chiesa can’t get his wrestling going his upside is somewhat limited. Pettis is in that range where I don’t necessarily like him but, he is worth a few tournament dart throws. Overall a fight I will most likely have exposure to just nothing crazy.
Millender (-170) 8.7k vs Griffin (+150) 7.5k
Millender will be coming into this fight with a height and reach advantage. He is a good striker and has solid power. Griffin is an ok striker with similar power. He has shown to have a fairly decent chin. I don’t really have a strong lean personally on this fight. But, I did take a peek at our Research Station at it had a stronger one than myself.
That makes me want to have some shares of Millender for his price. On the same end I will have Griffin. I just think Millender will win and will not be super popular.
Assuncao (-170) 9.1k vs Font (+150) 7.1k
Assuncao is a good striker and a solid wrestler. Font will actually have a height and reach advantage. He is an ok striker and has solid power.
Ok looking into this fight at first glance you think ok Assuncao has 3 wins in a row. Let’s lock him in. Let’s just dig a little deeper. In his last 3 wins he has produced draftkings scores of 78, 51.5, and 49.5 pts. For 9.1k that is not reaching value by a long shot. Also Font actually has better odds to win ITD than Assuncao does. While I do think Assuncao wins it’s most likely by decision. Therefore I am pretty much fading him. Font at his price is interesting. Not sure I will pull trigger on him but, I don’t blame you if you do. Overall a fight I won’t have heavy exposure to.
Vannata (-190) 9k vs Klose (+165) 7.2k
Vannata is a good striker and lands at a solid volume (5.89 SS’s). Klose has good TD’s and is ok in the clinch. Looking at Klose and the fact that he lands 2.33 TD’s per fight you are thinking this screams value. Vannata has solid TD defense. Therefore I think Vannata will dictate the pace of this fight. Let’s take 1 last look at our fantastic tool again the Research Station to see what it thinks about Vannata.
How does that rank with value on the card you say? Vannata is only behind Ngannou, Miocic and Costa in no particular order. I love Vannata as a low owned tournament play as a pivot off of Miocic or others in that range. Klose is more than likely a fade or just a very small hedge in a few of my lineups that don’t have Vannata.
Most Fade Worthy Fight on Card
Moyle (-190) 9.2k vs Whitmire (+165) 7k
Moyle is an ok fighter with semi-decent wrestling. Whitmire isn’t really good anywhere.
If you have to play someone in this fight my choice would be Moyle. I just find it very unlikely she outscores the fighters around her.
That’s it for me. Hope you liked the new format!
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