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The Sway Bar: NASCAR DFS Fades and Values for Sonoma 2018

Right turns are back on the menu! Whew what a week it’s going to be in wine country. As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.

I am not going to categorize drivers this week, just highlight drivers I think can perform from a DFS perspective. There are so so so many strategies you could employ this weekend, but at the end of the day you need to identify one and stick to it. I am attacking this slate like a restrictor plate, meaning I will focus on place differential. I think the field is going to flip after stage one. Everyone in the top 12 will run the full first segment, where everyone else will pit right before the stage ends, and lead at the start of stage 2. Dominator points are going to be so hard to anticipate outside of the first stage, so we turn to the devil we know instead of the devil we don’t.

Clint Bowyer – It can’t go unsaid how great of a year Clint Bowyer is having, and Sonoma presents him a fantastic chance to knotch a third win. Clint is a supremly gifted road course race, which a particular appreciation of Sonoma. In his career, its been crash or top ten for CB at Sonoma – with top ten being much more fequent. He rolls off 19th but WOO that car is tuned for the long run. There will be no locks this week, but this as close as you can get.

Kevin Harvick – I think Harvick probably has the fastest car this week, and I know he is one of the better Sonoma drivers. Starting 6th, there is a bit of a risk since his price is SO high, and there just isn’t much room to dominate. Alas, I can’t ignore him. There is a CASE for the fade – but it probably isn’t worth making

Denny Hamlin – Denny is not a known as a great road course racer, but he has been ultra competitive over the last couple tries at Sonoma, scoring two top fives. He showed really great speed in second practice, including top 6 long run speed. He rolls off 21st and should be keen to play the strategy game to gain track position. A really great play.

Kurt Busch – Kurt Busch is another guy having a sneaky good year, and could make a case for the win this weekend. He starts 23rd but has legit top 5 speed across the board. He is a tremendous wheelman at Sonoma and usually stays out of trouble. I think this is a really safe play.

Kyle Larson – Someday I believe Larson will be near unbeatable at Sonoma. The way he puts together a lap here is a thing of beauty. However, in years past we have seen him struggle to consistently string laps together, and fall back the race goes on. As the pole sitter, Larson is the number 1 candidate to dominate IF he can put those Q-trim type laps together. A risky RISKY play.

Michael McDowell – I like to tell myself this is a sneaky play, but it really isn’t. The word is out on McDowell – he is one of the most underrated drivers in the field. In A-level equipment, McDowell would be competing for wins at every single road course. However, even in C-level equipment, he can compete for a top 5. He starts 22nd, but I really believe we will see him inside the top ten sometime on Sunday. He showed really great single lap speed in practice, but didn’t take a 10-lap run. A small red flag, but press onward regardless.

Matt DiBenedetto – Sort of a punt/value hybrid play here. Last year, Dibenedetto showed a real improvement in his road course racing. He starts 30th, but can squeek out a top 20 if he keeps in clean. Play with caution, but he is a decent pick if you need some savings.

Some other relevant drivers:

Aric Almirola – Not much of a road course driver, but starts 24th. Will probably go a little over exposed.

AJ Allmendinger – Don’t fall for the hype. AJ has never been a great Sonoma guy.

Kasey Kahne – A great road course racer. However, that team is going through a rough patch. Play with caution.

Austin Dillon – Tend to struggle at Sonoma, but worth a look thanks to a 27th starting spot.

Cole Whitt – Should try to go the distance, decent at staying out of trouble. Punt of the week!

So there it is folks. Those are my favorite play this weekend. If your looking for other guys to give exposure to I don’t mind Bowyer or Keselowski, but both have there issues in terms of starting spot and ability, respectively.  Keep an eye on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock. Get signed upand get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good luck this week, and let’s make some cash.