Welcome to the Shark Autopsy Report MLB Edition! Over the course of the remainder of the MLB season this article will deconstruct winning FanDuel lineups of contests where the dark waters of GPP contests are ripe with sharks. Navigating these waters where the sharks smell blood in the water is not easy, but the DFSArmy have you covered, providing you with the essential daily tools to help our VIPs turn into sharks! The article will be released twice weekly, with each day’s article looking at either single entry or multi-entry GPP contests. Each contest requires a different lineup construction.
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FanDuel’s $75K Thursday Early MLB Squeeze
FanDuel’s $75K Thursday Early MLB Squeeze Contest is a $5.55 per entry multi entry GPP tournament where 15,946 entrants competed for the chance to win the top prize of $15,000. The winning lineup was that of Shawnzhan, a Mass Multi Entry (MME) GPP master! In fact if you were to look at the RotoGrinders top overall players in DFS, Shawnzhan is the 9th ranked player overall and the 3rd ranked Tournament Player of the Year player in DFS. Shawnzhan flat out crushes it at every major DFS sport he plays. In the tournament, Shawnzhan placed 3 of his multiple entries in the top 10, taking down $16,250 from those lineups alone.
Today’s Shark Autopsy Report will look at Shawnzhan’s top 3 lineups in the tournament to showcase that he utilized a core within these 3 lineups to build his stacks around.
Top 10
ShawnZhan’s Top 10 Lineups
Within all three of Shawnzhan’s top 3 scoring lineups, he utilized a Chicago Cubs stack of either 3-man Cubs or 4-man. This was a great approach to this tourney, because the Cubbies were extremely low owned. In fact in his top scoring and tournament winning lineup, he employed a 3-man Cubs stack of Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, and Albert Almora, accounting for and overall average ownership of 3.6% for the stack and 82 FD PTs. That is great production from a 3-man stack!
Dissecting Pitching
On the slate, most wrote off Odorizzi as being a valuable option to employ in your SP slot. At 4.7%, the field certainly wrote him off as well. Considering the pitching options on the slate of Kershaw, Greinke and Gray, it is understandable how he could go overlooked on the slate. Let’s breakdown Odorizzi and see if he was in a good spot or not coming into the game:
On the season on the road, Odorizzi has been very susceptible to blowups. Versus LHBs, he supports a wOBA of 0.331, ISO of 0.187, K-Rate of 14.7%, BB-Rate of 11.6%, GB% of 33.3%, FB% of 43.1% and HC% of 35.3%. Versus RHBs, Odorizzi is better in some of the pitching categories by mostly worse in the majority of them, supporting a wOBA of 0.356, ISO of 0.247, K-Rate of 25.2%, BB-Rate of 12.2%, GB% of 25.0%, FB% of 57.8%, and HC% of 28.8%. The numbers just didn’t matchup with the 6 IP and 8 strikeouts quality start performance. In fact Vegas liked Odorizzi and the Twins for the win with an opening line of -130. But as the day progressed their feeling of Odorizzi and the Twins winning the game lessened to a closing line of -115.
To make matters for Odorizzi, his last 14 days on the road statistics showcase that he’s actually been worse over the last 14 days on the road than on the season in several pitching categories. So if his pitching peripherals have been getting worse, why would Shawnzhan employ him in 2 of 3 of his top 10 scoring lineups, including the tournament winning lineup? Look closer! The White Soxs rolled out a starting lineup with 6 RHBs and if you look at Odorizzi’s last 14 days statistics versus RHBs, his K-Rate jumped from 25.2% to 30.4%. Yes, his wOBA increased 33 points over the last 14 days, BB-Rate increased 5.4% and GB% declined 6.8% over the last 14 days; but his ISO declined 80 points, FB% declined 12.3% and his HC% declined 10.6%. Those are massive declines in key statistics. Not only did the K-Rate for Odorizzi increase from his season stats to his last 14 days stats, the White Soxs K-Rate increased as well over that span at home from 24.8% to 26.6%. Spotting these types of positive statistical regressions (K-Rate, ISO, FB% and HC%) are what wins large field GPPs!
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Putting Hitting Under Scrutiny
Though the box score in the Cubs vs. Dodgers game looks lopsided, the fireworks didn’t start to go off for the Cubs until Kershaw exited the game after the fifth inning. The Cubs jumped on Walker Buehler after had returned from a stint on the DL. In fact, Buehler never got any rehab work prior to coming into Thursday’s game in the 6th inning. The Cubs capitalized on the Dodgers inability to effectively manage the return of one of their top young starting pitchers. On Friday, the Dodgers optioned Buehler to High A Rancho Cucamonga to begin his rehab back.
The Cubs stack of Rizzo, Baez and Almora that Shawnzhan employed, coming into the game had some bright spots on the road versus LHPs. On the season versus LHPs, Rizzo had a FB% of 68.4% with a low GB%, so he’s had some lift. On the season versus LHPs, Baez has had some power and hard contact. On the season, Almora has been the best of the three hitters with an extremely low K-Rate, power and FB%. Over the last 14 days on the road versus LHPs, Rizzo’s HC% increased 25%, but has been hitting the ball hard on the ground as evident by his 100% GB%. Over the last 14 days on the road versus LHPs, Baez has hit the ball in the air but not for much power or hard contact.
As a team, the Cubs have not been spectacular over the last 14 days versus RHPs on the road. As compared to their season stats, the team’s wOBA has declined 43 points, ISO has declined 18 points, WRC+ has declined 28.69 points, K-Rate has increased 0.9%, GB% has increased 6.8%, and FB% has declined 4%. Looking at Rizzo, Baez and Almora’s stats over the last 14 days, they don’t spell I’m on fire and you need to start me in your lineups. But, when you get a pitcher coming off of the DL and don’t get any rehab work, good hitters no matter what their hitting peripherals are can breakout and they did on Friday. But why would Shawnzhan stack the Cubs on the road versus Clayton Kershaw in his top 3 scoring lineups? Hedging! To hedge, a DFS player will look at their core group of pitchers they’re using for that slate and will hedge against a pitcher they feel is going to highly owned amongst the field, in the case that there’s a chance the pitcher implodes and gives up multiple runs and homeruns and they capitalize over the field. A great example of hedging against a particularly high owned pitcher on a slate was on Tuesday night when Corey Kluber was pitching against the Cardinals and the Cards lit him up and it was Kluber’s shortest outing of his career. Because MLB is littered with variance, these choices to hedge against a high owned pitcher can pay massive dividends to your BR when they hit, and in Shawnzhan’s case they did, just not off of Kershaw.
MLB can be a very frustrating sport in DFS with the extremes in variance, a hitter might be in a prime spot with amazing platoon splits or reverse splits against a gas can pitcher with woeful platoon or reverse splits and go 0’fer. Even the best in the sport go 0’fer on most nights, it’s the way of the sport. But, you need to be able to determine your process and keep the process consistent daily. When you veer away from that process you tend to produce, over the long haul, inadequate to poor performances and your bankroll is affected in the same token. Just Keep Grinding and working on your process and good things will come!
DFSArmy’s MLB coaches and staff works diligently each day on helping improve their members process, and in the same breathe refining their own processes to each daily slate. The DFS landscape is every changing and being a part of a great DFS community helps you to better manage your DFS game and become a better player!
To put a bow on this for you and conclude this installment of the Shark Autopsy Report, there are so many statistics in MLB that it can be overwhelming as a DFS player. Know that you don’t need every single statistic there is to determine whether or not a player is a good play. Determine which stats within the Research Station provide you with the best information to make optimal decisions, read the DFSArmy coach’s MLB articles (Dong Detector, CeeGee’s Stacks, Chop’s Chin Music, Painting the Black with MDell, Walsh’s Wingmen, ThunderDan’s Dr. StrangeChalk, ThunderDan’s Weekend Covering All The Bases, Jaguar Lou’s GPP Jamboree and the Donut Shop by DFSnDonuts), utilize the DFSArmy’s evolutionary taking the industry by storm Domination Station Optimizer and we will help you become a better DFS Player!