Welcome to back to the FRIDAY edition of Dr. StrangeChalk, where I hope to give you some potential pivots for tonight’s 15 game MLB DFS slate. I go by “Thunder Dan” around here and you can find me @ThunderDanDFS on twitter. DFS coach and consultant here at DFS Army by night.
This is the latest installment in an ongoing series in which I will focus on identifying the “chalk” and figuring out ways to leverage against it. This may include fading “bad chalk”, stacking an offense against a chalky pitcher, “flipping” your roster construction for the slate, or simply looking for similarly priced pivots who could outperform the chalkier plays any given night.
Since this article was released pretty early in the morning, I will warn you that ownership can be affected throughout the day by which players get touted by various sites today. I am mainly going off Vegas totals, recent performance, and making educated guesses as to what plays the DFS public will be gravitating towards.
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Pitchers
Wow, this is one of the worst pitching slates I’ve seen in a few weeks. A struggling Patrick Corbin is the highest priced pitcher on the slate at 11600 on DK and 9200 on FD, and there are absolutely no aces on the hill tonight. I love it. Players are going to be desperately searching for some type of safety at pitcher and there simply isn’t any. This has the makings of a great GPP slate.
Dallas Keuchal should be the chalkiest pitcher tomorrow as he comes in as a massive -300 favorite against the reeling Kansas City Royals. He was able to subdue the Royals last time out, throwing six shutout innings and striking out five, but before that game, Keuchal had been struggling for the last month. He simply isn’t a dominant starter anymore with an ERA over 4, WHIP of 1.31 and only 7k/9 innings.
I think that him being a huge favorite has more to do with Vegas’s confidence in the surging Astros offense which smacked Danny Duffy around for six runs last week than it does with Keuchal’s ability to dominate. If Dallas Keuchal is chalk on a 15 game slate, I’ll happily go elsewhere and hope the Royals can get to him.
I have several higher priced pivots off Corbin and Keuchal and then a few cheap guys as well. Right below Keuchal on Fanduel pricing are Zach Eflin and Jack Flaherty. These are two talented kids who are both pitching well this season, however, both are underdogs on the road tomorrow with tough match-ups.
Eflin gets the Nats, who obviously are a dangerous offense when they are firing on all cylinders. I don’t mind attacking them though because their best hitter, Bryce Harper, has been cold, Daniel Murphy has not done anything since returning to the lineup, and the bottom half of their lineup isn’t doing anything. Juan Soto and Trea Turner are hot, I’ll concede that. This is Eflin’s first time seeing the Nats (other than 3 at-bats against Mark Reynolds) and in those circumstances, I usually give the pitcher the advantage. This is the lowest total on the board today and rather than take the favorite, Tanner Roark, I’d rather roll with Eflin for upside.
Over his last two starts, Flaherty has given up just one earned run over 11 innings with 13 strikeouts. While most people will see what happened to Martinez last night against the Brewers and run, I personally think he has the talent to take on this lineup. Martinez was done in by his lack of control and poor defense behind him. Flaherty has shown good control and nice strikeout upside. The Brewers can be had for strikeouts, and this is one of those dangerous match-ups that also carries the elite potential to take down a GPP if you aren’t afraid to attack it.
In that same game, Junior Guerra faces the Cardinals, who I like attacking with right-handed pitching. Guerra has been solid most of the year and in two starts against the Red Birds this season has given up one earned run in 11+ innings.
CC Sabathia somehow managed to give up 10 hits AND strike out 10 Rays last time out and is back in the same spot again tonight, only this time he gets a park upgrade on the road. I wouldn’t hesitate to use him again as we’ve seen Tampa continue to struggle with strikeouts even when they scoring more runs.
Rookie Shane Bieber of the Cleveland Indians is actually the fourth largest favorite on the slate and is priced above Dallas Keuchal on DK, however, is only 6600 on Fanduel. Bieber was known for his excellent control in the minors and has only walked two hitters in two starts while striking out 13 hitters in 11 innings. He has given up 18 hits, which is a bit concerning but has an excellent matchup with the Tigers at home tonight.
Danger, Will Robinson!
Here are four pitchers that could end up garnering some ownership tonight, but I don’t feel good about rostering. Steven Wright and Wade LeBlanc faced each other a week ago in what ended up a pitchers’ duel and LeBlanc put up 60 Fanduel points against the mighty Red Sox and shocked the DFS world. I personally don’t want to chase those points and I think that Leblanc has to regress sooner than later. Journeyman fifth starters don’t become elite pitchers that often and the Red Sox slump won’t last forever. Wright is a guy I’ve been using but his price is creeping up and his risk of getting blown up might outweigh any reward he may offer since he hasn’t been striking many guys out lately with the knuckler.
Mike Fiers was good against the Indians in his last game, but I am still not looking to use him against one of the best offenses in the league on the road. Don’t be a “game log watcher”! Chris Stratton could be a popular play only because of the “pick on the Padres” conventional wisdom that players still subscribe to (I know it worked last night with MadBum), but I think I’d rather play San Diego’s left-handed bats than try to use Stratton.
Hitters
Outside of Coors bats, I’m not sure where exactly the chalk will fall with hitters tonight, but I’ll take a few educated guesses. The lefty-smashing Rockies’ righties will be (and should be) heavily owned against Chen of Miami. The Astros righties will likely be popular against Danny Duffy. I would expect that Yankees to get some love against Tampa tonight and also the red-hot D-backs against Ivan Nova of the Pirates. Don’t forget the DFS darlings, the Oakland Athletics, who get to face James Shields – everyone’s favorite pitcher to pick on, despite the fact he has been pretty decent this season.
Go ahead and use those teams, by all means, but expect their ownership to be higher than the other 25 teams on the slate. My sneaky stacks tonight will be the Atlanta Braves (implied run total over 5 at home against Alex Cobb), the Chicago Cubs (facing Luis Castillo in a great hitters’ park after burning a lot of players last night by failing to hit Matt Harvey), the LA Angels (a team that is starting to heat up facing Marco Estrada, a fly ball pitcher with a home run problem) and the Minnesota Twins (facing a mediocre lefty, Mike Minor, with a lineup full of guys who smash left-handed pitching).
I also think the Cleveland Indians and Boston Red Sox are in play and both of them could be vastly under-owned based on their prices and the fact that their opposing pitchers handled them in their previous match-up (mentioned this up above). People are going to want to pay up for Coors bat and could easily look past these other two high priced offenses.
Final Thoughts
On a big slate like this, even one low owned play that goes off (pitcher or hitter) can really rocket you up the leaderboard. Resist the urge to play a chalky play that you don’t believe in, and never be afraid to roll with a guy you have a strong feeling about. Trust your gut, if you’ve been playing DFS long enough you know that projections and touts miss just as often as they hit.
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