Good morning everyone, and welcome to this week’s NASCAR Xfinity preview brought to you by the DFS Army! I go by nillyJay around here and I’ll be your host once again this week. You can find me in our Slack channels @nillyJay (#nillys-garage-nas-mlb) or on Twitter.
Last week was a bit of a letdown for both races, but hey, it happens. We had a great truck race last night (if you don’t watch them, you really should…they are lots of fun), so that gives me hopes that today’s will be a good one too. Since we only have one race this weekend (for fantasy purposes), and because it’s Father’s day, I’m going to give a few freebies this week and show some of the things I prepare for our VIP members. Of course, the best stuff will always be on the inside (such as our Slack notes, research station, and Domination Station lineup optimizer), and there’s only one way to get all of that. For now, let’s dive into some research!
Iowa Speedway
We get a really cool race this week at Iowa Speedway, which is basically a mixture of a short track and a standard oval. Think of it as Phoenix ISM and Martinsville having a baby. A 130-mph, 14° banked, 7/8-mile long baby. Let’s first take a look at what we have to work with this weekend:
This is a chart I put together to make it easier to see how many dominators we need, and where fantasy points are coming from. This is vital for lineup construction and figuring out which drivers correlate best with others.
Dominators are more relevant this week as we’re getting back to races with more laps in them. Lineups consisting of two dominators will work fine in all formats, though you can try your luck with some single dominator lineups in tournaments. 4 of the last 5 races here had two dominators, while one race had just one. If you want to try both, I would allocate your lineups accordingly (80% with two dominators, 20% with just one).
When I say single dominator lineups, I mean pinpointing a single driver who you think has the best shot at leading the majority of the race (about 70% or more), and then loading up on finishing position/place differential with your other 5 drivers. In other words, take a stud as your dominator, but then fade the other high-priced studs in that same lineup. You would then opt for the cheaper guys who can pay off their salaries without needing to lead laps (by finishing very high or offering a significant amount of positive place differential). Remember that this is for a single dominator approach. It’s riskier, and should not be what you use in cash!
Next, let’s take a look at how the last 5 races have played out here:
Looking at the top chart, you can see that DKFP (fantasy points) are typically coming from all over the field here, as opposed to being more weighted towards the front like at a lot of other Xfinity races. This is due to the fact that driver skill is more important here (being a short track) than at other tracks that are faster and give an edge to those in better cars. This puts more importance on finding the right guys starting in the middle and back of the field.
The second chart gives us a bit more of a breakdown over the first one. It’s telling us that more DKFP comes from the 25th to 35th starting position and that the back-runners (36th and worse) are usually having a difficult time making a whole lot happen here. We obviously can’t rule anybody out until after qualifying, but it will be important to remember this later. This also tells us that there aren’t a lot of DNF’s here that push the back of the field up, so we can’t treat this like a wreck-fest (i.e. a plate race).
The last chart shows us how the top-10 starters are doing. We can see that the pole sitter (and the driver behind him) tend to have good races here, but what about that 8th spot? This isn’t saying “lock in whoever starts in 8th!” but rather, this tells us that we need to be very sure of who starts up front if we’re picking them. If a better car is starting a little farther back, don’t count them out as a dominator just because somebody else has the pole. Like I said earlier, driver skill is very important here, and gaps can be closed quickly at this track.
Now that we have an idea of where to start, let’s take a look at some of the key drivers this week:
Xfinity drivers
If you aren’t aware, Iowa is a track that only the Xfinity series races at. There is no race for the Monster Energy series, and we sometimes don’t even see any of them participate in the Xfinity races here. This is one of those times, as the field this week is filled with only Xfinity drivers. Plan your research accordingly!
Elliott Sadler ($11,000) – Sadler finally finished outside of the top-10 last week (which goes to show you what kind of race it was), so he’ll look to bounce back today. He has an excellent history here, as shown by his last 5 races at Iowa:
Take a look at the DKFP he’s earned. While those are good scores, that’s about what his ceiling is. He’s simply not the kind of driver to dominate a race, so unless he starts near the back of the field, he’s going to struggle to return enough value to win you a tournament. For cash games, however, he’s about as reliable as gravity.
Justin Allgaier ($10,700) – Allgaier has dominated three races this year, and they were all similar tracks to Iowa. He also dominated this race last year to the tune of 106 laps led and 24 fastest laps. There are no Monster Energy studs to compete with this week. I think you can see what I’m getting at here!
Christopher Bell ($10,400) – Bell’s dominator performance this year was also at a similar track to Iowa, and he has this track on his list of those he’s conquered. He won last year while leading 152 laps with 66 fastest laps, on his way to what would have been an 84 DKFP performance. Oh, and he had a driver rating of 132.2 as well, which is among the highest here. As long as they don’t have any problems, I expect to see Allgaier or Bell in the winning lineup today…or perhaps both.
Tyler Reddick ($9,700) – Reddick is expensive today and for good reason. He’s averaged 50.75 DKFP at flat tracks this year and 44.75 DKFP at short ones. He does well here and drove himself to a 3rd place finish last year that would have netted him 54.5 DKFP. He’s a bit on the expensive side, but I think that could go to keep his ownership down as well. I like him in all formats, but love him as a tournament play (so long as qualifying works out well, that is).
John Hunter Nemechek ($9,100) – While JHN has never raced here in an Xfinity car, he’s been here five times in the truck series and won last year. He was on his way to another solid finish last night too until he got caught up in a wreck that had nothing to do with him. He’ll be in the fast #42 today and will look to make up for last night’s disappointing ending with a strong finish today.
Shane Lee ($7,900) – I’m not sure who sets these prices at DraftKings, but once again they have Lee criminally underpriced. I expect him to be chalky and for good reason; he’s a top-5 driver in a top-5 car at a top-15 price. Barring any problems, he’s got a very good shot at being in the winning lineup today and looks to be a cash lock unless qualifying gets really funky.
Kaz Grala ($7,800) – Ever since he left JGL racing, he’s been on a hot streak. He’s probably to show everybody that he has what it takes to be in this series, so I expect that trend to continue today. We had a freebie with him last week (where he started 40th), but unless that happens again, he won’t be my favorite cash driver. In tournaments, however, be sure to fire him up because he’s shown plenty of speed already this weekend.
Special sauce: everybody else – There are a bunch of drivers I’m interested in outside of these guys, but I feel they are all going to be vital in taking down tournaments. As such, and since I went into some extra detail in other areas this week, I’m going to keep them to our VIP members in Slack with my notes this afternoon.
Don’t feel discouraged, however. I’ve shown a bit of what I look for when I’m researching drivers, and the answers you’re looking for just need to be uncovered. Better yet, consider signing up and let me do the work for you (don’t forget to use promo code NILLY for a 10% discount!) While you’re making your DFS rounds today, take a look at my MLB cash academy article to get a start on your MLB cash lineups today, and keep an eye out for the rest of our content coming out today. Until next time, good luck today!