Good Afternoon! CeeGee is taking a personal day, so I’m filling in for him today. It’s going to be a little different format today, so hang in there and let’s make sure we make some money tonight!
Disclaimer: I use the DFS Army VIP Lineups in conjunction with the Starting Pitcher Hub in order to build my stacks and do my research. The biggest thing I look to attack are pitchers allowing a high xwOBA to the hitters they’re facing.
For those of you that don’t know, xwOBA is a stat-cast metric that takes the defense out of the equation and is measured by exit velocity and launch angle. I look at these stats for pitchers over the course of the season, and for hitters over the course of the last 14 days against the opposing pitchers handedness. League average for xwOBA currently is .327.
So let’s dive right in!
We have 4 pitchers tonight that are going to be my top targets to stack against tonight. These are my top 4 stacks and I will give you multiple players to mix and match and get creative inside the stacks as well.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chad Kuhl
So here, Jon Jay, Paul Goldschmidt, David Peralta, Daniel Descalso, and Nick Ahmed are going to be my targets. I love the fact that I can leave off Jay in this stack on FanDuel and put in Nick Ahmed lower in the lineup to get some lower ownership within the stack tonight. Yes, John Jay has the stolen base upside, but Ahmed can run as well. Most people, when blindly stacking will go 1-2-3-4 or 2-3-4-5 but you don’t need to always have succession in order to be successful. These subtle changes can turn big leverage in gpps and other upside contests. Look for them and get a little creative in your thinking IF you like playing similar contests.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Zach Godley
As we can see here, there is only one batter that is below league average in xwOBA (.327 as noted above) against RHP over the last 14 days. For me, I’m going to start it with Starling Marte, and work down. I love Gregory Polonco tonight as a one off because he seems to have finally busted out of the slump he’s been in all season. Add in a underpriced Colin Moran on FanDuel and we have the makings of a stack that not only should be lower owned, but could really put up some points considering how much Godley relies on his curveball to be effective. And, these guys can all hit curveballs.
If you want to learn more about targeting pitch selection, become a VIP and target me in our coaching slack rooms. We can go into more detail than we can in basic breakdown articles. In fact, consider becoming a VIP quickly because prices are going up in the coming weeks and I’d hate to see you miss out on what would be a locked in price. Jump today and your price stays the same while all new jumpers’ prices will be higher. Lock in your savings!
LA Angels vs. Aaron Sanchez
I love the balance of the Angels stack tonight because not only is it a great late night hammer, but Jose Miguel Fernandez is only 22o0. Should he find himself in the lineup tonight, he balances out the cost of Mike Trout tonight very well. Kinsler, Trout, Upton, Pujols, Fernandez, and Simmons are all in play as well as Chris Young. Who if he’s in the 9 hole serves as a great 4 man wrap around with Kinsler, Trout, and Upton tonight against Aaron Sanchez. Again, it’s concepts like wrap stacks and lower ownership I love discussing with our VIPs!!!
Chicago Cubs vs. Matt Harvey
A lot of stacks of the Cubs tonight are going to include Kris Bryant in them, however, I won’t have him in the majority of my Cubs stacks (using xwoba to dodge high ownership and make better sense of better plays the public won’t see). I’ll instead save some money and start at Jason Heyward who finally looks like he’s fixed his swing! Heyward, Baez, Rizzo, Russell, Schwarber, Happ are all in play for me tonight and we can wrap around again with Happ and Heyward. Baez and Schwarber will be in at least 75% of my Cubs stacks tonight with how they perform against righties.
All of the pitchers we’re picking on tonight have an xwOBA allowed of .363 or higher and a positive differential of at least .022 points. Basically, what this means is even with how bad these guys have been, there’s room for them to actually get worse if you can believe that!
Good Luck Army!! Lets get that money! Offer feedback in Slack and let’s further break our tools down together with our other coaches!!
-Keith