Welcome to the Shark Autopsy Report MLB Edition! Over the course of the remainder of the MLB season this article will deconstruct winning FanDuel lineups of contests where the dark waters of GPP contests are ripe with sharks. Navigating these waters where the sharks smell blood in the water is not easy, but the DFSArmy have you covered, providing you with the essential daily tools to help our VIPs turn into sharks! The article will be released twice weekly, with each day’s article looking at either single entry or multi-entry GPP contests. Each contest requires a different lineup construction.
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$10 Single Entry MLB Ace Contest
Top 10
Winning Lineup
A little bit about the $10 Single Entry MLB Ace contest, 1,058 entrants competed for a share of the $9,000 in prizes Monday night, with $1,000 going to the contest’s winner. The lineup above was the winner of the $10 Single Entry MLB Ace contest from Tuesday night. Charlie Morton was far from the chalk pitcher in the tournament at 2.6% ownership in the field, in fact 2 out of the top 10 finishers had Morton as their selected pitcher for the night. Of pitchers utilized in the top 10 lineups, Blake Snell was owned in 50% of these lineups and 15.2% overall for the field. Scarycarrie27’s overall winning lineup accounted for a 13.73% average ownership percentage.
Dissecting Pitching
Morton finished the night with a solid night surrendering 8 Hits, 3 ERs in 6 IPs (with HRs served up to Gardner in the 1st and to Judge in the 5th), and struck out 10 over those 6 IPs. Morton was pitching away in Yankee Stadium, which carries a Ball Park ranking of 12th overall per DFSArmy’s Research Station. The weather on the night was clear at 82 degrees and had wind blowing in from Right Field at 12 MPH. Vegas Lines opened with Astros as a -125 Favorite with 9 O/U, and the lines closed with Astros as a -125 Favorite with 9 O/U. What made Morton such a great play against a hot New York Yankees lineup? On the season, Morton’s road stats are compelling, especially against RHBs. On the season against RHBs, Morton brought into Yankee Stadium a wOBA of 0.225, ISO of 0.126, K-Rate of 22.2%, GB% of 56.3% and HC% of 25%. These marks are respectable, though the K-Rate is low as compared to his K-Rate versus LHBs on the road during the 2018 season. When looking at Morton’s Last 14 Days stats on the road, his K-rate versus RHBs increases 2.8% and 1.5% versus LHBs. Over the Last 14 Days at Home versus RHPs, the Yankees rank 27th out of 30 in the league, that’s where Morton dominated and got 30 FD PTs out 43 total FD PTs on Ks alone! Below is a graphic that showcases the variance of the Morton’s home/away splits for the 2018 season:
Putting Hitting Under Scrunity
At $9,900 for Charlie Morton, Scarycarrie27 had to find value bats to fill their lineup and rolled out a 3x1x1x1x1x1 lineup construction, with a three man stack of Giants bats with Posey, Longoria and Hernandez that accounted for $10,200 and 59.1 FD PTs (or 5.79 $/PT for the stack). Not only did Scarycarrie27 nail 59.1 FD PTs from the Giants stack, they nailed their one offs as well, getting 122.2 FD PTs from the one off hitters at an average ownership of 14.22%.
Scarycarrie27’s unconventional stacked lineup of 3 man stack and a remaining lineup construction of one offs worked on Tuesday night, especially nailing those one offs who hit HRs. The 3 man stack of Giants of Posey, Longoria, and Hernandez was right on point, especially when looking at the opposing pitcher Kyle Freeland who at home has pitching stats with wOBA of 0.288, ISO of 0.186, K-Rate of 16.0%, FB% of 39.3% and HC% of 25.9%. Then when you see Last 14 Days stats for Posey, Longoria and Hernandez, this stack should have been owned at a higher overall field percentage than 16.63%. Posey’s 0.409 wOBA, 0.600 ISO, 50% FB%, 50% HC% and WRC+ of 160.61 are off the charts! Evan Longoria’s booming road stats versus LHPs over the Last 14 days are staggering, supporting a wOBA of 0.366, ISO of 0.375, 50% FB%, 62.5% HC% and WRC+ of 131.22, WOW good luck facing him! Tack on the game was played in Coors Field, this was a favorable spot to attack and stack with these hitters!
The hitting spots that scarycarrie27 utilized were favorable providing double digit FD PTs from 7 of the lineup’s 8 hitters. Though only providing 3 FD PTs in the lineup, Gorkys Hernandez was in a very favorable spot in Coors, as the stats portray below, so this was a good move even if it only netted 3 FD PTs.
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Over the Last 14 Days on the road versus LHPs, Evan Gattis’ stats showcase that he’s been an unstoppable force! As compared to his 2018 season stats, Gattis has seen overwhelming increases in his wOBA of 485 points, 2.625 points increase in his ISO, 59.1% increase in FB%, 59.1% increase in HC%, and 330.61 points increase in WRC+. He’s simply been enfuego!
What a great move to incorporate Gattis into scarycarrie27’s lineup, and at 10.6% ownership was a move that catapulted their lineup up the leaderboard.
Another great move by scarycarrie27 was to add a hitting piece from the opposing team of their Giants 3 man stack in the COL v. SFG game with CarGo. CarGo’s stats for the 2018 season at home against RHPs have been pedestrian to say the least, but over the Last 14 days have shown a bright spot. His wOBA has increased 131 points, OBP has increased 142 points, K% has decreased 22.6%, FB% increased 9.6% and WRC+ increased a staggering 89.03 points. Though CarGo didn’t HR in the game on Tuesday night, he did provide 2 singles, 1 SB, 1 Run and 1 RBI for 18.7 FD PTs, which if you can’t get them in all one swing, nickel and diming SFG is a great way to go!
To put a bow on this for you and conclude this installment of the Shark Autopsy Report, there are so many statistics in MLB that it can be overwhelming as a DFS player. Know that you don’t need every single statistic there is to determine whether or not a player is a good play. Determine which stats within the Research Station provide you with the best information to make optimal decisions, read the DFSArmy coach’s MLB articles (Dong Detector, CeeGee’s Stacks, Chop’s Chin Music, Painting the Black with MDell, Walsh’s Wingmen, Jaguar Lou’s GPP Jamboree and the Donut Shop), utilize the DFSArmy’s evolutionary taking the industry by storm Domination Station Optimizer and we will help you become a better DFS Player!