Every week of the year the PGA Tour plays on a new course. There are some examples in other DFS Sports of environments impacting performance, such as Coors Field in Baseball; Golf, however, offers an entirely unique environment each and every week. This article will break down the week’s PGA course and attempt to find what skill sets are needed for success. This article will then combine the course breakdown with the DFS Army Domination Station & VIP Research Station and give a few players to target on DraftKings and FanDuel in both Cash Game and GPP formats. For more updates throughout the week follow me on twitter @_bschnarr
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The Players Championship Recap
Jason Day – DK: $11400 FD: $12100
For all salaries above $9000 on DraftKings, Jason Day had the highest fantasy points while being the 2nd lowest owned on the board. With an average ownership just under 8% on DraftKings Jason Day turned out to be a great GPP play.
Tommy Fleetwood – DK: $8200 FD: $10300
To find the next highest salary who outscored Day you have to go down to Tommy Fleetwood at $8200. Fleetwood finished with the 8th highest fantasy score on the week and did so at 16% ownership. I was very high on Tommy Fleetwood this week as I saw the ownership falling within the range due to his missed cut the week prior.
Louis Oosthuizen – DK: $7700 FD: $9400
I wrote up Oosthuizen as a potential low ownership play that could work out given his up and down recent performances. Oosthuizen was hardly owned with a 5% average across GPP’s but his performance was certainly nothing that would help your team.
The $7500 range on DraftKings (Patrick Cantley, Tony Finau, Emiliano Grillo, Brian Harman, Zach Johnson)
I wrote up his this range was loaded with talent and how we projected seeing ownership fall would dictate my personal GPP plays. I ended up on Patrick Cantlay and Tony Finau who finished 1st and 3rd in scoring amongst the group with the 3rd and 4th highest ownership percentages.
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The AT&T Byron Nelson Preview
The Byron Nelson is taking place at the Trinity Forest Golf Club, a 7380 yard par 71. This course has never hosted a PGA Tour event before and well there is plenty of speculation about what types of players will be effective, it is very hard to tell without years of course history. Upon first look this course looks to be one that is advantageous to long hitters off of the tee. By all accounts fairways are relatively wide, the course does not have much trouble off of the tee and the overall length should make driving a necessity. However, this is all speculation and we really do not know until the players begin playing.
The course also looks has extreme undulation throughout the greens and players who put themselves in awkward spots can see big numbers on the scorecard start to stack up. Typically, when I see this I like targeting good approach players as well as players who have been gaining strokes around the green. It’s looking like being just a few inches off of your spot on approaches can completely change the hole so players will need to be locked in with their approach game.
A stat we use pretty heavily at DFSArmy is Fantasy Points per Hole. By loading up on players who have been outscoring their competition, and adjusting for field strength we can find great DFS plays.
Without truly knowing what to expect for the week you can never go wrong with relying on recent performance. In weeks with new courses we can often see people begin to over emphasize specific statistics without specific evidence. Many will also rely on course history, which will make players with good recent performances chalkier than we would like to see. However, by knowing this we can find other players in similar spots with solid recent history and build good teams filled with great GPP plays.
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Interesting Plays
Jordan Spieth – DK: $11900 FD: $12900
Jordan Spieth is going to be very interesting to track leading up to the event this week. He is the highest priced player on both sites and for good reason. The field is less than stellar this week and Spieth, Matsuyama and Garcia are the only players in the field ranked in the top 20 of the world golf rankings (and two of those three aren’t playing their best golf). Spieth will likely be the highest owned play, but at what point does the ownership become high enough that he becomes a player to fade in GPP’s?
Brendan Grace – DK: $9400 FD: $11500
Brendan Grace is looking like the chalky play if you aren’t playing Jordan Spieth up top. Early looks around the industry are suggesting many are on Grace which makes a lot of sense given his style of play and good play this season. Like Spieth, the level of ownership will be interesting. I will be relying on our ownership projections a lot this week with a less than stellar field and many DFS Players likely loading up on safe, reliable plays.
Charles Howell – DK: $8700 FD: $10700
Everyone’s favourite automatic play in cash games has looked solid in recent weeks with a T17 and T21 finish. I really cannot see how he wont be apart of my final cash roster but the ownership will likely make him a fade for me in GPP’s.
DraftKings $8000-$8500
In these stars and scrub events, we often see this range of salaries become overlooked as ownership flocks towards players who are cheaper in order to get some of the top end talent into your lineup. This week, I could see this ownership range being extremely low owned with no real names jumping out off of the page. I will be writing much more about this range in our company SlackChat and were I will be looking later on in the week.
With three writers, there are lots of opinions being given out to VIP members later in the week closer to lock. I will be going over all of these plays and my thoughts for cash later in the week on our company slackchat.
Other DFS Army PGA Golf Tools and Articles
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