Hello again everyone! It feels like it’s been forever since I’ve done one of these articles, so I’m excited to get back to the NASCAR grind with you guys. We head to Charlotte for some long races – a 300-mile/200-lap run for the Xfinity series and the 600-mile/400-lap behemoth for the Monster Energy series. Lots of laps lead to lots of scoring and lots of for us, so let’s get right to it!
Charlotte Motor Speedway
Charlotte’s 1.5-mile “D-shaped” track is most similar to Texas and Atlanta (though it’s not near as rough as Atlanta’s surface is). The other 1.5-mile tracks can be used in your research as well, but I would put the most weight in what you find with Charlotte and Texas.
Like I mentioned in the Xfinity preview article, things are a little more chaotic at Charlotte than at most other 1.5-mile tracks. In fact, over the last six years, only Kentucky has seen more DNF’s per race at these tracks (7.3 for Charlotte, 7.6 for Kentucky). This means that cash games are a little bit riskier this week, but with how the Monster Energy qualifying turned out, there’s still plenty of chalk for us to use to have that built-in safety for cash with good hedging options in GPP. Xfinity is always a little tougher for cash, but with the Monster Energy drivers back, it should be easier to choose dominators.
Xfinity Alsco 300
We’re back to the usual here, as we’ll be looking at 1-2 dominators in all formats again this week. Kyle Busch is the most likely candidate, and he’ll probably be my favorite (especially if he gets the pole). After that, we’ll have Brad Keselowski, Justin Allgaier, and Christopher Bell as likely secondary dominators. It’ll be difficult to roster both Kyle and Brad in the same lineup though, so it’ll be best to take one in cash and one as a GPP pivot. As of right now, I’m leaning more towards Kyle for cash/GPP and Brad as a GPP pivot, but we’ll see what qualifying brings. As always, I’ll give my thoughts on the matter in my Slack notes tomorrow morning, so stay tuned!
Of course, you can always run a single dominator lineup, but I would only do that in GPPs. It’s only happened once in the last five races here, but somebody like Kyle Busch is more than capable of going out there and leading 75% or more of the race. For cash, however, it’s best to stick to a two-dominator approach.
Xfinity drivers
Let’s next take a look at how scoring has been distributed, by starting position, over the last five races here:
Like most Xfinity races, it’s the drivers up front who get most of the DKFP here. Generally speaking, the fastest cars qualify high and tend to stay there. Unless somebody random gets the pole, we can expect the pole-sitter to lead the first chunk of laps and possibly the second stage as well – should they have a good pit stop. We’ll want to look at the other drivers starting up front as a potential secondary dominator, as it’s generally one of them who take over in the event the pole-sitter doesn’t keep the lead after the first round of pit stops occur.
Next up are the studs, and once again we look directly at Christopher Bell, Justin Allgaier, and Elliott Sadler. Bell looked very good in practice/10-lap averages (with a nice price reduction to boot), so as of right now he’s my favorite stud for all formats – he can win you a GPP without leading a single lap, even if he starts near the front of the field. Allgaier is always a threat to dominate the race for a while, but he’ll have some strong competition this week. Unless he gets the pole, I’ll probably lean more towards GPP use for him since Bell can outscore him with a lower salary. Like I always say, Sadler has the best floor in the field but also a very limited ceiling, so I’d only take him in GPP if he starts in the back somewhere. Otherwise, he’s a cash stud if you can afford him with your dominators. Don’t play Sadler without having a dominator in that lineup!!
Chase Elliott and Jamie McMurray are also in the mix, but as far as I’m concerned they are GPP only. I say that because unless they start really far back, we can pay down to the Xfinity studs without losing any floor or gaining a higher ceiling. I would be VERY surprised if either one of these two can dominate the race for an extended period of time. McMurray should have a nice floor, but for $700 less, Sadler’s is still higher.
Also, it’s no surprise that Chase Elliott will be driving the #23, which isn’t quite on the same level as the fastest cars in this series. That said, Spencer Gallagher did manage to average a finish of 11.3 at the 1.5-mile tracks this season, but he only spent 58.6% of the time in the top-15 (and only had a total of two fastest laps in those three races). Chase is obviously the better driver, but that doesn’t make me want to pay up for him when somebody like Bell is likely safer with a higher ceiling. I expect his ownership to be inflated due to his name, so I have no problem going underweight or outright fading him if he starts too high.
As for the rest, we’ll need to see how qualifying turns out before we can narrow down our selection, so stay tuned to Slack for that. However, there are some I am very interest in already…
My “secret” Xfinity drivers
Driver X & Y – Before I say any names, take a look at this chart (averages over the three races at 1.5-mile tracks this year):
Next, look at these past performances at Charlotte:
Those are my X & Y drivers this week. I like Tift because he’s in sort of a weird spot with his salary, and I think people will be more focused on paying up for studs and down for value, skipping right over him. I like Sieg because while his 1.5-mile performances haven’t been great this year, he’s done well at Charlotte and could see 5x value or more by repeating one of his top-15 performances here. He’s also improving as the year goes on, and this could be his week to have a breakout finish. I’ll be heavier on these two the worse they qualify, and I would like to see at least 15th place as a starting point. 20th or lower would be fantastic!
However, as you can see above, there are others who look to bring extra value this week, and I’m interested in all of them; Daniel Hemric, Michael Annett, Jeremy Clements, and Mike Harmon all look like potentially good plays, so keep an eye on them. Of course, Dylan Lupton and Tommy Joe Martins could be great punts, so watch them too.
Lastly, I have to make a paragraph for this jerk: J.J. Yeley is unpredictable but we can’t ignore him, because when he decides to race he has top-15 potential. Unfortunately, he may also just cruise around the track without a care in the world until he finishes dead last, so he should not be in any cash lineups! Be sure to sprinkle him around in a few GPP lineups though, as any race could be one where they decide to actually try.
Monster Energy Coca-Cola 600
First things first: though we don’t like to use this word around here, KEVIN HARVICK IS A CASH LOCK THIS WEEK!! He needs to be in your cash lineup(s), no questions asked. At the absolute bare minimum, he has a floor of about 60 DKFP/81 FDFP, with a realistic floor of 100 DKFP/FDFP. That would be a 5th place finish with a mere 50 lead/30 fastest laps, which is far less than what he has averaged at 1.5-mile tracks this year. If we use just his average numbers at those tracks this season, he would see nearly 160 DKFP/120 FDFP. Those are absolutely insane numbers that we won’t see again for a long time, and we’re still talking about his FLOOR. He has a 200+ DKFP/150+ FDFP ceiling and you WILL NOT CASH if you fade him and he gets anywhere near that. He’s only DNF’d here twice in 34 races, so chances are he finishes this Sunday as well. If you want to go underweight or fade him GPP that’s fine, but you’re asking to lose if you fade him in cash this week!
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Given Harvick’s golden situation this week (and his big price tag), I don’t mind going two dominators in all formats on both DraftKings and FanDuel since there is plenty of value to make it happen. While dominator scoring isn’t as important on FanDuel, you might as well take it when a driver offers it along with a bunch of place differential and a high chance of a top-5 finish.
Kyle Busch makes a great co-dominator this week in all formats and I like him paired with Harvick on both sites to start cash lineups. I can easily see these two combining for 250+ laps led/150+ fast laps, which would be a nice chunk of fantasy goodness (especially on DK).
I consider all of the other potential dominators as GPP pivots this week, in this order: Joey Logano / Denny Hamlin, then Martin Truex Jr / Kyle Larson, then Brad Keselowski / Ryan Blaney, then Chase Elliott / Jimmie Johnson, then Kurt Busch / Clint Bowyer.
If you can afford Truex, Larson, Chase, Jimmie, or Bowyer in your cash lineups, go for it (though it may be tough). But don’t do it at the expense of Kevin Harvick!
Value plays are up next, but let’s first look at how everyone has done here over the last five races:
Now, there are a few outliers here to keep in mind. First, Truex’s lead laps look really good, but most of them came from two races where he led 233 and 392 laps. While he’s certainly capable as a driver of repeating that, he hasn’t shown that dominance this year. He was the king of 1.5-mile tracks last year but has only averaged 5 laps led at them so far this season. This is why I prefer him as a GPP dominator pivot this week, even if he is starting 15th. Harvick is just the better option this time around.
Kyle Busch has been a little up and down the last few races here, but I have no problem going to him as the pole-sitter. Remember, he once had seven straight top-5 finishes here, and two of the last 3 races were also top-5 finishes. One thing he HASN’T done, however, is win here. He loves winning, and he will do what he can to mark Charlotte off of his list on Sunday.
Bowman looks really bad here, but four of those races were in low-tier cars. His only run in the #88 ended early when he had a tire issue and hit the wall, but he was running in the top-5 up until that point (63 laps). I’m not worried at all about using him here this week, and I only included this to show why it’s important to dig deeper into research instead of only going by the numbers at face value.
Speaking of value, there are several good options to choose from: Kasey Kahne, William Byron, AJ Allmendinger, Michael McDowell, and Landon Cassill are fine in all formats. Daniel Suarez, Paul Menard, Bubba Wallace, Matt DiBenedetto, and Corey Lajoie all make good GPP pivots. I don’t have much interest in most of the rest in this range, as I believe they are starting too high to retain any value. I’ll mark them all as such in my driver picks sheet on Sunday morning in Slack.
That will have to do it for now. I know this one ran a little long, but hey…it’s been over a month since I got to do this article, so I got a little carried away! I’ll have my final thoughts before each race starts as well as my driver pick sheet in my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb, so I’ll see you all then!