Welcome back after a break. While it was nice to recharge the batteries I am ready to get back into a steady run of fights coming up. This Saturday we have 13 fights in Brazil. In case you are new to MMA the reason I mention Brazil is that notoriously like to pick home favorites if fights go to decision. Just something to be aware of. As always don’t forget to check out our Research Station and Domination Station when you are creating your lineups. They are both very useful tools and have helped numerous members to some good wins. Also be sure to hop in Slack Chat where we break down the fights and our thoughts even more. Then last but certainly not least keep an eye out for our VIP Pod that Geek and myself do.
Before we get started I wanted to congratulate another DFS Army Member on a massive, life-changing win! DFS Army VIP Member mwilliams52581 took down almost $80,000 in NASCAR on DraftKings this week including 1st place in the NAS $300k Piston for $75,000! Another massive takedown by a DFS Army member and the newest entry in the DFS Army Wall of Wins!
Enough of my rambling let’s break down this card.
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Perez (-350) 9.2k vs Bochnovic (+290) 7k
Perez is a good striker with decent takedowns (TD’s). He also has solid submissions. Bochnovic is moving down a weight class for this fight. He will have a significant reach advantage of 8 in. He isn’t very good overall. The best thing I can say about him is he is tough. I like Perez in GPP’s. Vegas really likes him to win inside the distance and it shows with the odds sitting at -140. I like the idea of pivoting of Nunes (will get into my thoughts on her later) and using Perez at a lower ownership. Bochnovic is more than likely a fade for me. Overall Perez is the play here.
Emeev (-220) 8.7k vs Mina (+180) 7.5k
Emeev is a good striker and has good knees. He has a solid ground game and good submissions. Mina is coming off a 2-year layoff. He has decent TD’s and ok submissions. This is a GPP fight for me. I can see merit in using either fighter. My preferred play is Emeev. Mainly because he has more ways he can win this fight. Mina is definitely worth some exposure as a punt though. Overall this is a fight I won’t be heavy on but, will have shares of both fighters.
Hermansson (-155) 8.3k vs Leites (+135) 7.9k
Hermansson is a solid striker and has decent power. He has good cardio and good ground and pound. Leites is on the tail end of his career. His cardio is diminishing. He is tough and has good submissions. I like Hermansson to win here he lands at a solid rate of 5 significant strikes per minute (SS’s). I just don’t trust Leites anymore. I could see using him in 1-2 lineups if you are building 16+ lineups. Other than that I think he is fadable. Hermansson is playable in all formats (my preferred is GPP’s).
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Alves (-245) 8.8k vs Aliev (+205) 7.4k
Alves is an aggressive fighter and is athletic. He is a solid striker and has good submissions. Aliev is good in the clinch and has decent TD’s. I like Alves in all formats. He has decent TD defense which means if it goes to the ground it will be because Alves will be the one doing so. He has solid odds at his salary as well. Aliev is worth using as a tournament punt though because Alves has shown cardio issues in the past. Overall both are playable in GPP’s and Alves is playable in cash as well.
Zaleski dos Santos (-130) 8.1k vs Strickland (+110) 8.1k
Zaleski is an aggressive fighter and is a good striker. He has good leg kicks and good power. Strickland has a very good jab and decent TD’s. This is a very good fight to target in tournaments. Both fighters land at a very good rate (Strickland 4 SS’s and Zaleski 4.52 SS’s). I will give a slight edge to Strickland he has the ability to get the fight to the ground. Overall a fight a will have shares of both and the winner should put up a solid DraftKings score.
Ramos (-145) 8.5k vs Hein (+125) 7.7k
Ramos is a good striker (3.5 SS’s) and has decent power. He also has a good ground game (lands 3 TD’s per fight). Hein is decent all-around and is tough. He is an ok striker (2.6 SS’s) and has good TD defense. This is a tournament fight only for me. If Ramos can secure some TD’s he could score very nicely with advances. If Hein can stop the TD’s he could put up a decent score. More than likely Ramos wins. Overall it’s best to have some exposure to both in GPP’s.
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Albini (-155) 8.2k vs Oliynyk (+135) 8k
Albini is a decent striker and has ok power. Oliynyk has a good chin and has good submissions (42 of his 50 wins have come via submission). Vegas really likes this fight to end inside the distance. I will have exposure to both. While it pains me to say this after he let me down last time he had a fight, I actually like Albini a bit more. He will be lower owned due to the fact he let everyone down last time. Overall have exposure to both in tournaments.
Roberson (-115) 8.6k vs Ferreira (-105) 7.6k
Roberson is a good kickboxer and has solid elbows. He has a decent ground game as well. Ferreira has a good ground game and good submissions. Both fighters are in play for tournaments. In cash at the odds they are at currently I don’t mind Ferreira as a value punt (be sure to listen to the podcast to see if my thoughts change as we get closer to fight night). Overall both are worthy of exposure in GPP’s.
Machida (-275) 8.9k vs Belfort (+235) 7.3k
Overall I am not going to waste your time here. I think this fight is fully fadable and a great way to shorter your fighter pool.
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Lineker (-255) 9k vs Kelleher (+215) 7.2k
Lineker is a good striker and has good power. It is worth noting he doesn’t have the best TD defense. Kelleher is a good striker and has decent TD’s. Both of these fighters land at a very high rate (each has over 5 SS’s). I think you need exposure to both in tournaments. My preferred play is Lineker. I also like Lineker for cash as well. Don’t get cute here and fade 1 of these completely. Not saying you need 100% exposure to fight but shares of both for sure. Overall both in tournaments and Lineker in cash.
Dern (-270) 9.1k vs Cooper (+230) 7.1k
Dern is a good wrestler and has solid TD’s. She also has very good submissions. Cooper is a good boxer. I think Cooper will be a very popular play. That makes me want to play Dern heavier. I think this is a very good matchup for her. I think she is playable in all formats. Cooper is ok as a GPP punt.
Souza (-150) 8.4k vs Gastelum (+130) 7.8k
Souza is a good wrestler and has solid TD’s. He is a good wrestler also. Gastelum is a good striker and has decent power. He has good combos and quick hands. I will more than likely be all in on this fight (100% exposure meaning I will have 1 of these 2 in all my lineups). My preferred play is Souza who, I think is a good cash play as well.
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Nunes (-900) 9.5k vs Pennington (+600) 6.7k
Nunes is a good striker and has decent TD’s. Pennington is a decent striker and is tough. I think this fight is stackable in cash games. I don’t hate the idea of going lighter on Nunes in GPP’s and dropping down to fighters just below her.
Remember to try out the Domination Station for MMA for this card and join us in the Slack Chat! Good Luck DFS Army!
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