Hello again everyone, and welcome to this week’s NASCAR Xfinity preview! It feels like it’s been forever since we’ve had an Xfinity race (three very long weeks), so it’s great to finally be back at it. With a combination of our Domination Station lineup optimizer, the research station, these articles, and the VIP-only notes/advice we give in our Slack channels, we’ve had a lot of success so far this year with these races. This week looks to be no different, but before we start digging in, let’s take another look at one of our recent big winners in NASCAR;
That one was from Dover on the Monster Energy side, but don’t worry, we have some Xfinity goodies too. Here’s some of what we did at Phoenix/ISM – a three-way DFS Army tie for first place in the Beast:
Of course, you can always check out our Wall of Wins to see our latest big winners. As always, I encourage you all to check us out and consider signing up here because who knows, maybe you’ll be our next big winner! For now, let’s start looking at the upcoming Xfinity race.
Charlotte Motor Speedway
We get back to some more Xfinity racing for 300 miles (200 laps) at Charlotte’s 1.5-mile track, one that we’ve seen races at in this series for nearly 36 years. That gives us lots of data points to refer to, but let’s start with the basics; average DKFP by starting position over the last five races.
Like most 1.5-mile tracks, those starting up front tend to rack up the most lead/fastest laps and have a better shot at finishing strongly. What’s different, however, is the fact that those starting in the back half of the field tend to have a better chance of moving up and earning more DKFP here than at other tracks in the Xfinity series. This is mostly due to the increased number of cautions we see at this race. Over the last five races, we’ve seen, on average, 17.94% of the race ran under caution, 25.74 laps per green flag run, 7 cautions, and 5.6 DNFs (2.0 of which were crashes).
There’s nothing inherently any more dangerous about this track than others, but everybody just wants to win at Charlotte. That pushes people to drive just a little harder, which leads to some more chaos (not to mention the fact that they haven’t raced in three weeks). This is good for us because we can take a few more shots with the cheaper drivers here, where they usually don’t have much of a chance to do anything at most others. Speaking of drivers, let’s take a look at some of the drivers racing this weekend:
Monster Energy drivers
Well what do you know, some full-time Monster Energy cup drivers are making another appearance at the Xfinity this week after taking several weeks off. Let’s look at them first:
Kyle Busch ($13,900) – After nearly 3 months away from Xfinity, Kyle Busch makes his return for Memorial Day weekend. He comes with both a great track history and another big price tag, though it’s not the most expensive he’s ever been. Knowing how to approach him will be key to this weekend, so I’ll leave the specifics to my Slack notes on Saturday morning.
Brad Keselowski ($13,100) – Brad offers a solid track history too, though it’s not quite as dominant as Kyle’s. Still, he does great at Xfinity races and is generally a solid play…if you can afford him.
Jamie McMurray ($10,400) – Though he’s one of my favorite drivers, DraftKings keeps pricing him to the point where he’s going to struggle to reach value, so it’s hard to recommend playing him unless he qualifies in the back of the field. Maybe we’ll get to use him on Sunday instead.
Chase Elliott ($10,000) – Chase makes his Xfinity debut this week as a fill-in for Spencer Gallagher in the #23 car and is the cheapest of this group. This is another unique situation that I’ll leave for Slack, so stay tuned for that!
Xfinity drivers
Elliott Sadler ($9,700) – The human cash floor reclaims his title as the most expensive Xfinity driver this week. Any ceiling he had at the last few races (with the absence of any Monster Energy drivers) looks to be cut right back down this week. Still, he’s about as safe as you can get for your cash games, so if you can afford him, go for it.
Justin Allgaier ($9,300) – When he doesn’t have any problems (which don’t occur very often for Justin these days), he’s usually holding a top-5 position and taking his share of fastest laps. He’ll look to do that again this weekend, as he’s very solid at Charlotte. He can also dominate this race if he can find his way ahead of the other potential dominators, which makes him an option for all formats once again.
Christopher Bell ($9,000) – Bell’s price drops back down this weekend, and all I can really say is…thanks, DraftKings!! (in other words, he gets my blessing as a good choice for all formats yet again.)
Cole Custer ($8,800) – Custer gets a hefty price reduction this week too, and it comes at a great time; this is one of his best tracks. Over the last three races here, he’s averaged a finish of 5.6, a driver rating of 102.7, and what would have been 43.75 DKFP. He’s sure to go lower-owned this week as most people flock to everybody else in this price range, so don’t overlook him for tournament use.
Daniel Hemric ($8,500) – Hemric has been doing very well most of the season so far, and he’ll look to continue that trend again this weekend. He’s raced here twice in the Xfinity series, both with solid results. He finished 13th his first time here, followed by a 7th place finish later in the season. I expect him to battle for a top-10 finish on Saturday, and potentially a top-5.
Driver X ($7,xxx) – I’ve been dying to do one of these again (like I said…three weeks was a long time), so here we are. There’s somebody here at just the right price where I think they’ll be overlooked for other drivers higher/lower than they are, and that’s all I can say for now. Stay tuned for Slack notes and my VIP article on Friday for more details!
Chase Briscoe ($7,600) – I’ll mention Briscoe though, as he gets to drive the #98 car this weekend while most of the other Xfinity regulars are headed back to their normal cars. If you don’t remember, this is one of the faster cars in the field that Kevin Harvick gets priority with when he races in Xfinity. Briscoe is a good driver, so this is a pretty nice driver/car combo for the price.
Driver Y ($6,xxx) – Okay, maybe just one more…
Ty Majeski ($6,700) – Majeski has had a string of three bad races, as well as one where he was switched out with another driver because of his (poor) performance in practice. If he doesn’t qualify too high again, he could be a good lower-owned value play (I expect a lot of people to skip by him when they see his -12.7 average DKFP without looking at the whole picture).
Dylan Lupton ($5,500) – He’s certainly worth more than his price tag would suggest, but he often qualifies too high to be considered a viable pick. Keep an eye on him though, because if he manages to start near the back of the field, he’s probably got the best chance out of everyone in this price range to move up.
That will do it for now. If you’re new to NASCAR, are struggling, or just need a refresher after the three-week long break we had, be sure to check out my beginner’s and intermediate guides. And of course, if you’re not yet a member and you want to come join us for the more in-depth discussions we have in our Slack channels, along with access to all of our tools/resources, you can do so here. Don’t forget to use promo code NILLY to lock in that 10% savings. Good luck this weekend!