Welcome to the very first Chalk Donkey article for DFS Golf. This week we have the Players’ Championship, the Fifth Major!
My name is Josh Thomas, and I’ll be writing the Chalk Donkey article for VIP’s every week here at DFS Army looking at who the chalk plays are in DFS Golf and who you can pivot to. We’ll look at if you need to eat the chalk especially in cash games, and take a deep dive into some picks using our Research Station and the Domination Station.
Before we get started, I want to point out that we had some HUGE wins for the DFSA this weekend. I’d like to say its because they brought me on board on Thursday, but as you guys know by now, this is an everyday occurance here.
Also a big shoutout to DFSArmy member theStor for this win.
What is a Chalk Donkey?
First let’s breakdown what I consider to be ‘chalk’. Let’s look at each each price range and what is considered chalk there.
Over 10K: >25% Anything over 25% in this range is considered chalk, and could even go down to 20%. Some weeks ownership is pretty evenly spread in this range, and some weeks one player gathers all the ownership and becomes a Chalk Donkey.
9K: >20% Again, any time over 20% of the field is on a player in this price range we would consider them a chalk donkey.
8K to 7.5K: 15%-20% This is a little trickier in this range, but I consider anyone over 15% chalk. DK has been jamming a bunch of guys in around 7.5k lately and we’ve seen guys get up there in ownership.
Below 7.5K: >10% Players are priced here for a reason, and oftentimes one or two become what I call DFS Darlings and garner a ton of ownership (Lucas Glover at the Wells Fargo) While you usually have to eat this chalk in cash, you want to swerve it any chance you can in GPP’s.
Who are this week’s Chalk Donkey’s?
In this section, each price range’s Chalk Donkey will be identified, and a few pivots will be offered.
Over 10K:
The ownership looks to be fairly spread out in this range. If you are MME this week (which I think is a great option this week) you should be taking a bit of each of these guys in the DS. Spieth will most likely be the lowest owned just due to recency bias and concern about his putting. This is a second shot course and Jordan, as you can see here absolute crushes with his wedges, adjusted approach to the green, and Greens in Reg which is big this week.
I’m not in love with him here, but he should be a huge leverage play as the lowest owned among the top ten. He’s not cash viable one bit, as evidenced by his last three MC’s here. If I’m making 20 lineups in the DS I’m putting a minimum of 15% on Spieth, and 5-10% on the rest of the top guys and letting the DS spit out some optimal lineups. Jordan Spieth is still Jordan Spieth, and if he’s going to come in low owned, we should be jumping on him.
9K:
This is a super small range this week, with only 4 golfers. Rickie, Rahm, Rose, and Sergio. The RS likes Rickie the most, and there’s this interesting stat as well.
Most birdies/eagles per round in @THEPLAYERSChamp since 2010 (10+ rounds played in span):
J. Thomas 5.00
S. Garcia 4.78
R. Fowler 4.57
A. Scott 4.53— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGC) May 8, 2018
Rickie is a strong play in all formats, and I really like starting your cash games here. Gives you a ton of flexibility to lock in solid plays like Stenson, Mickelson, etc.
Sergio and Rose will most likely carry the lowest ownership in this range, but I can’t really see anyone in this range dropping below 10%, or anyone climbing over 20%.
Looking at our RS, Sergio has the best course history, and approach game, but the lowest made cut percentage. Rose provides good value and is a strong Cash game play. With such a small range, I would advocate for playing a little of each, or even two with the value in the 7K range. If I had to make a stand here though, Fowler is my play.
8K:
Now we are getting into the nitty gritty where the Chalk Donkeys come out to play.
Henrik Stenson: DK $8,800/FD $ 11,600
Stenson is a DFS Darling this week and for good reason, this course really suits him. He has great Course History outside of 2 MC’s, and has been playing phenomenally, finishing 5th, 6th, and 4th in his last three tournaments.
This combined with his Vegas odds of 28-1 mean that he should be priced into the mid 9K’s yet here he is at 8.8K. The RS loves him this week, projecting him for 7th most points on the week and the fifth highest value.
He’s chalk we should be eating this week. Assume he will be around 20% owned in GPP’s and push 40% in cash, but I just can’t justify not playing him. He’s viable in both cash and GPP and I’ll be loading up on him.
Bryson DeChambeau: DK $8300/FD $9600
DeChambeau is shaping up to be the biggest chalk donkey this week. Should eclipse 15% no problem, and be well on his way to the mid to upper 20% range. Not only is going he going to be one of the most popular plays, our RS doesn’t really like him. This is an easy fade, but lets dig into why.
One of these players is Bryson, and one is the player I’m saying you should pivot to. Looking at both of the key stats and adjusted strokes gained, I’m taking the guy up top every time. Adjusted Field Rank for made cut % is almost 20 percentage points better. Greens in Reg are close and so is approach and around the green. Adjusted putting, the player on top blows the other out of the water.
Bryson is on the bottom, and Phil Mickelson is up top. I’m all in on Phil this week, and while Bryson can contend, I think Phil has a much safer floor, with the same winning upside.
Another interesting thing about Bryson is a new stat that Taco added to the RS this week, Average field strength. Average field strength takes into account the strength of the fields you are playing in each week and weights them accordingly. So the Masters’ is weighted heavier than the Corales PuntaCana Championship. Below is the Average Field Strength for the entire 8K range, guess which one is Bryson?
You got it, the .5%. He’s the king of the swing season, playing against weaker fields. Don’t get me wrong he has played well the last few weeks in some strong fields, but his stats are a little misleading when you consider this.
I personally will be a full fade on Bryson this week. No Cash, No GPP. Most of my shares will be going to Phil.
Francesco Molinari: DK $8100/FD $9500
Molinari will fight with Bryson for Chalk Donkey king this week with the highest ownership. Another guy who is a great value at this price. I think you have to play him in Cash Games just based on ownership, At 20ish percent owned, I’ll be going for the leverage fade in GPP’s. There’s a boatload of guys in this range to flip to and here is who I’m keying on.
Alex Noren and Marc Leishman
Both of these guys are priced cheaper than Moli yet in my view are much stronger GPP plays. Moli is not winning this tournament. I can’t even imagine writing Francesco Molinari wins the Players Championship. (Now watch it happen) At this range, I’m looking for players who have win equity and both Noren and Leishman have that. There’s risk here, but that’s why you play GPP’s.
Leishman carries a better value rating than Moli, and is within 1 projected point, for $400 less. Noren hasn’t played here before but has a history of playing well at less than driver courses. Both Noren and Leish have better fantasy point per hole stats than Moli and better strokes gained approach statistics. Francesco isn’t a bad play, and I’ll be loading up in cash, but in GPP’s I’ll be fading and plugging these two into a lot of my lineups.
7K:
Emiliano Grillo: DK $7500/FD $9200
Cash Game Lock. You have to play him in cash games this week. 100% owned. The field will be on him for around 60-70% ownership in cash games and if you don’t have him and he plays well you’re done. Our RS has him as one of the best values on board which makes him cash game viable for me, but he also is getting a ton of buzz in the DFS industry. One of those guys you just have to lock in and move on.
He will be chalky as well for GPP’s and anytime someone in this range is pushing 20% or higher ownership, I’m looking at an automatic fade. Zach Johnson is another great cash game option and while I don’t have as good of feel for his ownership in GPP’s, he could be a fade target here as well.
So who are our options in GPP’s? This is a great range in the sense that often two of the players will go way over owned and you can get a couple of guys around them are extremely depressed ownership.
Three of my favorite pivots here are Branden Grace, Adam Hadwin and Webb Simpson.
Grace is the highest priced on DK at $7400, followed by Webb and Hadwin at $7300. All three of Value ratings over 9 and projected point totals in the high 60’s low 70’s. Grace is 4 for 4 in cuts here and Hadwin and Simpson have both made 2 of their last 3.
Recent form is also excellent for all three, with none having finished any lower than 30th in their last four events.
Check out their Vegas odds to win, Grace and Simpson are far and away the class of this price range in terms of odds to win in the 70-1 range, and Hadwin is in that second group. I don’t usually value Vegas a ton, but when I’m looking at a player whose odds are out of wack with the rest of the range, I’m more likely to jump, especially in GPP’s.
Hadwin is an elite ball striker, and if he putts well I really like his chances here. If he was coming in having played this course 3-4 times, I think his price would be much higher. He is gaining some traction in the community and will probably see his ownership a little higher than Grace and Simpson.
Below 7K:
There really doesn’t appear to be any chalk in this range, so I’m going to highlight some punt plays that I like. Unlike last week where we had Lucas Glover and others that had high ownerships, with the depth of the field this week, this end of the spectrum will have low ownership, with most lineups not even dipping down here. That provides some opportunity for you to take a punt and build a stars and scrubs when most will be doing the balanced lineup.
If you are building lineups in the Domination Station, pick a few of these guys and throw a minimum of 3-4% on them and then let the DS flex its muscle and build a you some winning LU’s.
Steve Stricker: DK $7000/FD $8700
RS loves old man Stricker this week. Perfect set up for him to contend at. Short, less than driver course that focus on approach game, scrambling, and wedge game.
Alexander Levy: DK $7000/FD $8600
No course history, No real stats to speak of since he plays in Europe (which is why he doesn’t rate out in RS) but this guy has a ton of game. Would like him a little more if he played here more. Hasn’t missed a cut in Euro this year and has finishes of 14, 1, 4, 55, 4, 7 in the 6 events he’s played so far this year.
Keegan Bradley: DK $6900/FD $8500
RS loves him this week, and so do I. Should be low single digit ownership. Keegans approach game and iron play have been great this year.
Jonas Blixt: DK $6700/Not in Player Pool on FD
Two solid finishes in a row for Blixt. 27th at Wells Fargo and 14th at RBC. He’s a guy who has been known to play well at Pete Dye Courses. MC here last year but 19th the year before. Purely a GPP Punt.
Rory Sabbatini: DK $6700/FD $7700
Shows up in the research station as a value down here. Another guy who has had a bit of a resurgence here this year. 27, 23, 70, 43, 5, 17, 72, 31, 20, 69, 32. Those are his finishes this year. That means he hasn’t missed a cut in 11 starts since the start of 2018. For this price, with that form? Also had a 6th place finish here in 2015, the last time he played. Sign me up.
That’s it for this week, I hope you enjoyed the deep dive into this week’s Chalk Donkey and Pivots. Taco, Brody, and myself will all be in slack to answer any questions, help you build lineups, and sweat the cut line on Friday. Give me a follow on Twitter @dfsupnorth as I usually kick out some relevant information there as well!