Welcome to this weeks Chalk Donkey article for DFS Golf. This week we have the AT&T Byron Nelson.
My name is Josh Thomas, and I’ll be writing the Chalk Donkey article for VIP’s every week here at DFS Army looking at who the chalk plays are in DFS Golf and who you can pivot to. We’ll look at if you need to eat the chalk especially in cash games, and take a deep dive into some picks using our Research Station and the Domination Station.
This week the tour heads to Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas, Texas for the AT&T Byron Nelson. It’s the first year for the event at this course which puts everyone on a pretty much level playing field as no one has a competitive course history here. The field this week is…not good. That means that ownership will pool on a group of players, making it easy for us to identify the chalk donkeys.
While the poor field makes it easy for us to identify the chalk donkeys, it also makes it hard to find good pivots off of them.
What is a Chalk Donkey?
First let’s breakdown what I consider to be ‘chalk’. Let’s look at each each price range and what is considered chalk there.
Over 10K: >25% Anything over 25% in this range is considered chalk, and could even go down to 20%. Some weeks ownership is pretty evenly spread in this range, and some weeks one player gathers all the ownership and becomes a Chalk Donkey.
9K: >20% Again, any time over 20% of the field is on a player in this price range we would consider them a chalk donkey.
8K to 7.5K: 15%-20% This is a little trickier in this range, but I consider anyone over 15% chalk. DK has been jamming a bunch of guys in around 7.5k lately and we’ve seen guys get up there in ownership.
Below 7.5K: >10% Players are priced here for a reason, and oftentimes one or two become what I call DFS Darlings and garner a ton of ownership While you usually have to eat this chalk in cash, you want to swerve it any chance you can in GPP’s.
Who are this week’s Chalk Donkey’s?
In this section, each price range’s Chalk Donkey will be identified, and a few pivots will be offered.
Over 10k:
Jordan Spieth DK
Welcome to Jordan Spieth narrative week. He has a locker here. His coach Cameron McCormick teaches here. He’s played and practiced her multiple times. He’s from Dallas. He won the British Open last year and this a links style course. The list goes on and on.
Jordan is the highest priced player on both Draft Kings ($11,700) and FanDuel ($12,900) and his odds are currently at 5-1 and could drop even more by Thursday. He’s the massive favorite, and will be massively owned. Current projections have him pushing 30% even at this price tag.
Jordan’s a great play this week, and someone I’ll be using, but if I’m playing a single entry he’s a fade and MME I’m looking at being underweight (have less ownership total, than his ownership) at around 15-20%.
So who do we play in this range as a pivot off the chalk donkey Spieth? Well there are lots options.
The next highest priced golfer on DK is Matt Kuchar at $10,700 which is $1200 less than Spieth giving you a bit of leeway with your lineups.My early projections have Spieth coming in over 25% with Kuchar being the pivot most go to, carrying around 15-20% ownership. Both Spieth and Kuchar are great plays and ones you should allocate some lineups to. Spieth was quoted earlier this week as saying that this course reminded him a bit of Royal Birkdale where he won the British Open last year and Kuchar was second. Others have compared this course to Chambers Bay where Jordan won his US Open and Kuchar finished T12.
With Kuchar and Spieth sucking up the majority of the ownership above 10K we have two great GPP pivots who will be without a doubt overlooked given their recent form and the price tag attached, Sergio Garcia and Hideki Matsuyama.
Recency bias is a very real thing in DFS Golf and Sergio and Hideki will be victims of it this week. Neither have great form coming in.
Last week Sergio collapsed to a 70th place finish on Sunday, while Matsuyama missed the cut due to putting it in the water about 18 times on 17. (No water this week!)
Their ownership is telling too. Their numbers have significantly dropped the last two times out as they continue to underperform expectations. With the price tag on them this week, I can see them both in the single digits which will be a huge leverage play for GPP’s if they play well. At that ownership even being double the field won’t take much 2-3 lineups out of 10, and it could pay off huge dividends if they pop.
But we can’t just play them because we think their ownership will be low, though thats a factor, they need to also check the boxes when it comes to statistics so lets look at how they fare here.
I’ve highlighted some areas that are important at this course. First and foremost they are two of the best in the field in fantasy points per hole. Sergio is tied for first with Spieth and Hideki is second. This is always the first column I go to on the RS as this identifies who are the best scorers in the field.
With 6 par 4’s falling into that ‘medium’ range Sergio scores the most fantasy points on them of anyone in the field. Hideki’s score of .7 isn’t awful by any means either.
Both have Made Cut % of over 80 and their adjusted field rank percentage has them in the top ten in the field.
Greens in Regulation is not necessarily a key stat at this tournament per se, but what it does show us is that their approach games are some of the best in the field, any time we see light or dark green in this column its a good thing.
Sergio is absolutely crushing the field in Adjusted Strokes Gained Approaching the Green which is a key stat this week. Top two in the field behind Joaquin Niemann who has a small sample size to pick from.
Deki is similarly crushing the field in Adjusted Strokes Gained Around the Green, top ten in the field, though many ahead of him are not tour regulars anymore (Stuart Appleby being one). Hideki is a surgeon around the greens and that should be a huge advantage for him this week.
As you can see both gain strokes with their Irons and Wedges, with Sergio being a little more consistent across the board.
The long term form is something we need to remember here to fight back against recency bias. Yes, neither have played well in the last month or so, but only 3 players in the field have a better top 10% than these two. (Spieth, Kuchar, and Leishman)
I wouldn’t touch either of these player in Cash Game lineups but I love them as low owned pivots for GPP’s who are world class talents. I wouldn’t be suprised to see at least one of them get back on track here this week.
9K:
This is a great range this week and I expect some sharp players to start their lineup construction here and fade the top end guys completely.
I currently don’t see a chalk donkey emerging here yet and I would advocate some mixing and matching among all the players in this range outside of Billy Horschel who has great recent form, but I can’t swallow the price and he actually comes into our RS with the worst Value Rating of anyone over 8.5K.
You can see the Value Ratings here, with Horschel clocking in at by far the lowest value among the group.
Hossler appears to have the most buzz this week as a native Texan, with Leishman and Grace not too far behind. Overall this group will hover around 10-15% ownership. Of the 6 my favorites are Grace, Scott, and Leishman and those are who I will be building a lot of my lineups around and here is why.
Grace, Scott, and Leishman all carry the best Made Cut % and Adjusted Field ranke in the group. They all also have the best double bogey avoidance percentage which is big because we are going to see some BIG numbers this week. While Branden Grace doesn’t necessarily have the best adjusted strokes gained around the green and approach, he more than makes up for it with his putter.
All three of these players have had success at the British Open as well. Leishman and Scott have near misses and both should arguably be Major winners from that event. Grace shot a 62, a British Open record, last year at Royal Birkdale. Remember we mentioned Spieth talking about Birkdale and Chamber’s bay reminding him of this course? Yeah well not only did Grace shoot that record round at Birkdale, he also finished second at Chambers Bay to Spieth. Scott had a back door top ten at Chambers as well shooting the low round on Sunday, a 64.
Leishman and Scott are Aussies, and Grace is a South African, they are used to playing in the wind and in links style courses where you have to think your way around a course. I’ll take that experience over an upstart like Hossler any day of the week.
One more thing, for what it’s worth I’m a believer in the Adam Scott putting improvement. Two weeks in a row he’s gained strokes here. I’ll take what I can get at this point with him, but it appears he’s getting it together.
8K:
Welcome to the land of misfit toys. I fully expect this range to be massively underowned this week. Using DK as an example, when you plug Spieth into your lineup, you are left with an average of $7,620 left per player. With the lack of options below 7K, you likely are going to be stuck in the 7K range for the rest of your lineup. Now lets say you want to build from 9K down, if I put Scott and Leishman together, I have $7925 left per player. That likely means I end up with a few guys in that high 7K, low 8K range, leaving the middle completely untouched.
There’s a couple guys in this range that we can use to differentiate our lineups and get some leverage in GPP’s. Charles Howell III, Rory Sabbatini, Scott Piercy, and Grayson Murray.
Murray, Sabbatini, and CH3, offer the best value here based on our RS. CH3’s Vegas odds are also the lowest of the bunch. Sabbatini’s odds are going up so that leads me to believe he will be the lowest owned of the bunch and with his recent strong play, could be a good option here.
Piercy has the lowest value of the bunch but when we talk about what you need here being a strong approach game, there is no one better on tour than Scott Piercy.
As you can see here, Piercy is crushing it in all of the key stats. Way above the field in Approach, Long Irons, Wedges, Greens in Reg, etc. The only issue with him, as usual is his inability to putt well consistently. He’s streaky, and if he gets hot he’s in good shape. Where Charles Howell III is a great cash and gpp option, I would only be playing Sabbatini, Piercy, and especially Murray in GPP’s.
Grayson is a fantastic Bermuda player and when he’s hot he absolutely lights it up, but look at that Double Bogey or Worse %. Woof. If he can avoid the big numbers this week he will be in good shape. I’d like to see him contend on the weekend once before I put any real faith in him as he’s a great Thursday/Friday player and usually falls back to earth by Saturday/Sunday. He’s a supreme talent though and can score like crazy.
I also think Aaron Wise is a great GPP and even Cash game play on FD but I can’t pay the price for him on DK. He is severely underpriced compared to his odds on FD.
7K:
There are 70 Golfers priced in the 7K Range this week. There are only 19 golfers priced above 8K. So the vast majority of the field is priced between 7k and 8k on DK. This range will make or break you this week.
It appears that the ownership will spread out fairly evenly with a few guys sucking up a little more ownership than the rest.
Keith Mitchell: DK $7800/FD $9200
Keith Mitchell is everyone in the PGA DFS communities favorite shiny new toy. He crushes the ball a mile and his Fantasy Points per Hole is high. The problem is he doesn’t do some of the things you need to do well here. He loses strokes on approach, he’s ranked 184th on the tour in Putting, and he while he averages .95 fantasy points per hole he also has one of the highest double bogey or worse percentages in the field.
I don’t see his game transitioning well at a course like this, and at a ownership that may push over 15%, I’d rather pivot to some other plays at the same price.
Check out the RS in that price range. In this group, I’d play them in this order on DK Laird, Palmer, McDowell (Northern Irishman who plays well on Links style courses, more of a gut play than anything) and then Mitchell last. On FanDuel I’m fading Palmer completely though. Martin Laird is going to be under owned and mashes the medium length par 4s.
The graph above has them in the same order. While Mitchell gains a ton of strokes off the tee, that’s just not something we’re looking for here this week. He’s also a poor Iron player and this is what the players call a ‘Second Shot’ course, meaning that being good with your irons into greens is essential. (Though I think every shot is a second shot course) McDowell’s wedge game is also fantastic which puts me on him as well.
I’m going to let everyone else talk up the shiny new toy this week even if that means going against our RS a little here (Though Laird is the better value and has more projected points). If he makes the cut and contends, good on them, but I’ll take the safer options in Laird, McDowell, and even Palmer.
Side Note: McDowell gets to follow Spieth around the course as they are paired and I believe thats a huge advantage for him.
Joaquin Niemann DK $7800/FD $8700
Another shiny new toy, Niemann, a 19 year old from Chile, will be teeing it up for the third time on tour this year after playing at the Masters as an Amateur, and then a 6th place debut at the Valero and a missed cut at the Wells Fargo.
He’s getting a lot of buzz this week and will push for ownership over 15% in a field that doesn’t have a lot of great options. He’s going to have some gaudy numbers in the RS due to the extremely small size. He may be worth a flyer here but I’ll take the crafty vet Palmer who we just talked about at the same price.
Kevin Na DK: $7200/FD $9000
Kevin Na is an interesting case this week, he SHOULD be a chalk donkey but he isn’t generating the buzz in the community that I think he deserves.
Check out the odds column. He’s an unreal value. The only player in the 7K range that has better odds to win than Kevin is Martin Laird and he is priced $700 more than him.
I think the easiest way to start a Jordan Spieth lineup build is to add in Kevin Na, but he’s not generating the type of buzz this week that I thought he would. I was convinced that Kevin and Jordan would be the highest owned ‘stack’ at the beginning of the week but now I’m not so sure.
Kevin crushes the RS all over the place at his price. His adjusted strokes gained around the green is the best in the field of anyone we have a strong sample size on. (I’m not convinced that Parker McLachlin is going to gain 1.16 strokes around the green this week)
Kevin has a strong history on links courses, including four straight cuts at the British Open and has played made the cut at the US Open at Chambers Bay. I just don’t see how you can’t eat the chalk here (if he is chalk) and play Na this week.
There are a few other plays I really like in this range that are easily identifiable by their projections in the RS (remember green means good).
Aaron Baddeley DK $7500
Short game specialist who outside of a rough outing at the Wells Fargo had a stretch of cuts made going back to the Farmers. GPP Only.
Johnson Wagner DK $7500
RS loves him this week. Has great recent form and a solid short game. Worthy of a few shots in GPP’s.
Sam Saunders DK $7400/FD $8400
Another big value in the RS. Has one of the highest Fantasy Points per hole score in this range. A good par 4 scorer, but short game lacks sometimes.
Under 7K:
There doesn’t appear to be a ton of chalk down here this week outside of maybe Andrew Putnam who is gaining some steam in the community as a solid play.
Warning: These are huge GPP Punts that could pay off big if they make the cut, but don’t play them if you are only making one lineup.
Noah Goodwin DK: $6600/FD $7000
This is strictly a “he knows the course” play. Noah is a recent SMU grad who practiced and played her all through college. With the depth of the field this week I can justify a bit of a punt on a guy like this if I’m make 50 lineups.
Brian Gay DK $6900/FD $7800
A strong value play according to the RS this week. Scores well on par 4’s, good fantasy points per hole, strong around the green game. Also extremely accurate so should be able to place himself in the right position off the tee to attack these pins.
Benjamin Silverman DK $6600/FD $7300
Good made cut %, odds to win are exponentially better than pretty much anyone around him. Loses strokes to the field pretty much everywhere, but has had some good results in these events where there isn’t a ton of competition. Made the cut in both Texas events earlier this year.
John Senden DK $6600/FD $7500
Back on tour for only his third event this year after missing an extended period of time caring for his son who had a brain tumor. The two time tour winner from Australia has a history of playing well on links style courses and has made one cut and missed another in his two starts back. Priced low enough that he’s worth a GPP shot in a lineup if you like risk and a good story!
Final Thoughts:
There looks to a be a bit of an advantage to the PM/AM Tee times (Tee off Thursday afternoon/Friday Morning) with the wind scheduled to pick up Friday afternoon. I shared this in slack earlier but when there is a clear advantage to a wave I like to split my lineups like this. 5 in the “best” wave, 10 mixed, and 5 in the “worst” wave.
Sometimes these weather narratives are blown out of proportion so if you stack the ‘worst’ wave and the weather doesn’t pan out you have a big leverage play because those guys in the ‘worst’ wave are most likely under owned. This is a strategy to remember for events like the British Open where weather almost always plays a factor.
Join us in Slack Chat this week and lets win some money! I’ll be there off and on all week, but will be in helping build lineups from 9:00 to 10:00 PM CST on Wednesday night getting you guys ready to take down some GPP’s.