Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
Today
Let’s take a look at the MLB slate for Monday night. The teams with the highest implied run total are the: New York Yankees (5.58), Minnesota Twins (5.00), and the St. Louis Cardinals (4.94). The highest priced pitchers on the slate are Zack Greinke, Gio Gonzalez, and Miles Mikolas. The highest priced hitters on the slate are Manny Machado, Aaron Judge, and Bryce Harper.
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Free Squares
- Walker Buehler P LAD ($9,300)
- Walker Buechler and the Los Angeles Dodgers will take on Colorado Rockies at home tonight. The Rockies have an implied total sitting at right around 3.00 runs and the Dodgers are currently -178 favorites. Dodgers Stadium has been the 22nd best hitters park this season. Buehler has the following stats on the season so far this year: .294 wOBA given up to lefties, .216 wOBA given up to righties, 30.4 K%, 8.0 BB%, .313 BABIP, 39.7 Hard%, 3.02 SIERA, and a 2.69 xFIP. He takes on the Colorado Rockies who have the following ranks vs. right-handed pitchers this season: 14th in BB%, 8th in K%, 27th in OPS, 21st in ISO, 27th in wOBA, and a 30th in wRC+. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 22.015 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.37x value. Buehler is the best pitcher on the board tonight and he has a great matchup against a rough Rockies team. Load him up as your SP1 on Draftkings tonight.
- Brian Dozier 2B MIN ($3,900)
- Brain Dozier and the Minnesota Twins will take Detroit Tigers and pitcher Blaine Hardy at home tonight. The Twins have an implied total sitting at right around 5.00 runs and they are currently -206 favorites tonight. Target Field has been the 23rd best hitters park this season. Dozier is likely going to be batting 2nd in the order tonight. Dozier has the following numbers vs. left-handed pitchers on the season: 11.8 BB%, 14.7 K%, .724 OPS, .167 ISO, .250 BABIP, .319 wOBA, 97 wRC+, and a 32.0 Hard%. He will face Blaine Hardy tonight who has the following numbers vs. right-handed batters: 22.7 K%, 9.1 BB%, .357 BABIP, 5.06 xFIP, and a 33.3 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 83.6. Dozier has solid numbers vs. lefties this season and Blaine Hardy is not a pitcher to write home about. Load him up as a mid-tier 2nd baseman tonight on Draftkings.
- Trey Mancini 1B/OF BAL ($3,800)
- Trey Mancini and the Baltimore Orioles will take on the Chicago White Sox and pitcher Hector Santiago on the road tonight. The Orioles have an implied total sitting at right around 4.49 runs and they are currently -103 favorites. Guaranteed Rate Field has been the 20th best hitters park this season. Mancini is likely going to be batting 1st in the order tonight. He has the following numbers vs. left-handed pitchers this season: 11.5 BB%, 19.7 K%, .896 OPS, .222 ISO, .333 BABIP, .386 wOBA, 144 wRC+, and a 28.6 Hard%. He faces Hector Santiago who has the following numbers vs. right-handed batters this season: .331 wOBA, 19.4 K%, 7.1 BB%, .262 BABIP, 5.57 xFIP, and a 26.1 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 68.8. Mancini has great splits against left-handed pitchers this season and he faces a not so great pitcher in Hector Santiago tonight. He should see plenty of fantasy oppotunities tonight and I like as either an infielder or outfielder tonight on Draftkings.
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Ultimate Free Square
We have a medium slate tonight with some solid tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Walker Buehler tonight! Good luck Army!
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