We are back to chaos this week as we head to the restrictor plate castle of Talladega. It’s really hard to predict plate tracks. All we can do is talk strategy, and how different drivers fit into that. As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.
A couple of notes that I always like to note on restrictior plate tracks:
Most importantly, the restrictor plates. On track, the cars have about the same horsepower – meaning they will be nose to tail all day. This means drivers who usually aren’t relevant get made relevant, and if there is a crash – it’s going to end the day of 3-15 drivers in an instant.
It’s very seldom that the optimal lineup maxes that salary cap. Whacky lineups galore.
I think the most important thing this week will be playing at least five differential plays. The sweet spot is 26th starting spot or worse, and only 5 times has someone in the top five ended up in the optimal. Drivers in the back also have the benefit of more fast laps, since the cars infront of them are cutting the air for them.
Now regardless of what strategy you play this week – plate tracks have a DNF rate of around 20%. Meaning every driver in the field this Sunday will have a one in five chance of not completing all the laps. This makes just about any strategy volatile. With that in mind, understanding the correct optimal place differential strategy certainly gives us an edge.
Rather than give you top plays, fades, and values, I am going to give you my thoughts on each driver starting 25th or worse, and allow you to create a strategy with that in mind. Bolded drivers are drivers I consider top plays. Keep in mind that other drivers starting better than 20th arent unplayable, but they are just volatile.
Chris Buescher – Buescher is a fine plate racers, but by no means a stunner. Worth sprinkling in your line ups, but thats about it.
Kasey Kahne – Kahne has run so much better than his results so far in 2018, and I hope he can turn it around this weekend. He is a good plate driver and showed prowess in his current setup back at Daytona. I like this play.
Jamie McMurray – Boom or bust here. J Mac already had a huge wreck this weekend but dont look for that to slow him down come Sunday. He is the most aggressive driver in the field when it comes to Dega. He will wreck, or he will be in the top ten.
AJ Allmendinger – I have never been a big fan of AJ on plate tracks. One of my least favortie plays in this range.
Ty Dillon – It’s been a crazy week so far for Ty Dillon, but he has a great history of avoiding craziness come race day. Ty is a great play and should survive the chaos.
Brendan Gaughan – I love Brendan as much as the next guy, but I don’t love him starting 30th. Worth a look, but don’t bet the house on him
D.J. Kennington – Same as Gaughn, except I don’t trust the equipment as much. I won’t play too much of him compared to those around him.
Timothy Peters – Peters is a NASCAR veteran and gets to wheel the charoit that David Gilliland rode to a 14th back at Daytona. I think this is a sneaky good play.
Matt DiBenedetto – Lot of chalk here, but Dibenedetto is one of my favorite plays in the field. He always outruns his equipment at races like these. Look for him to compete for a top 15 if he avoids the chaos.
Joey Gase – Gase is worth a look, but he is not my favorite play here. The equipment isn’t great and the driver is just so-so.
Ross Chastain – I like this play. Chastain will have a similar setup to Danica’s Daytona car, which was competitive. Chastain is a fantastic driver and should be able to complete all the laps. Love this play.
Cole Whitt – If Whitt survives, he will probably be in the top 20. An underrated driver that constantly outruns his equipment. A favorite play.
Gray Gaulding – Gaulding is no longer just a punchline, he has been able to turn in some decent plate performances over the last 18 months. I like this play a lot.
Reed Sorenson – I don’t think this car will be competitive. Worth a bit of action based on position regardless. I don’t trust the equipment very much.
Timmy Hill – A positional play only. I don’t trust the equipment but you can’t fade someone starting this far back.
Aric Almirola – Pretty much a lock. Almirola is a great plate racer and has no where to go but up.
So there it is folks, use that to start your research. We will be talking more strategy on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock, and thats what it will be all about this week. Strategy. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good luck this week, and let’s make some cash.