Pitching Breakdown
Tuesday, April 17th, 2018
In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.
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I am mostly a Fanduel player, so the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.
Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. Go check out the MLB Pitching Strategy article to get my thought process on picking these pitchers each slate!
NOTE: most of the stats I used are from a 14-game sample to the handiness of pitchers. If I reference season numbers, I will mention that in the write-up!
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Definitions of Stats used in articles via Fangraphs.com
K% (Strikeout Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has struck out a batter, calculated as strikeouts divided by total batters faced.
An average K% is 20%, anything above is considered great or elite
BB% (Walk Percentage): Frequency with which the pitcher has issued a walk, calculated as walks divided by total batters faced. Average BB% for pitchers is 7.7%, anything lower is considered great or elite
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): The rate at which the pitcher allows a hit when the ball is put in play. A BABIP at or near .300 is considered average. EXAMPLE: if a pitcher has a BABIP of .200 it means he could be getting lucky and balls in play are turned into outs if they have a BABIP of .400 he could be getting unlucky on balls in play and they are turning into hits.
xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): An estimate of a pitcher’s ERA based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, and fly balls allowed, assuming league average results on balls in play and home run to fly ball ratio. The Lower the xFIP the better. 3.80 is around average.
SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): An ERA estimator that attempts to more accurately capture a pitcher’s performance based on strikeouts, walks/HBP, home runs, and batted ball data. The lower the better 3.90 is considered average, so anything below that is great to excellent. Anything about is poor.
Hard% (Hard Contact Percentage): Percentage of hard-hit batted balls. Anything below 30% is considered average or better. the lower Hard% the better, meaning pitchers are giving up more soft contact.
wRC+: A rate statistic that credits a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating them all equally. League average is 100, each point above or below that is one percentage point better or worse than league average. wRC+ is a better representation of offense value.
Yesterday’s Results: (here I will post fantasy points from previous day’s picks)
Main Slate
Jameson Taillon (9.3k FD) (11.1kDK) @ PHI: Taillon has been amazing this year and the Pirates are rolling to start the season. He has a 24% K rate in 3 starts which is slightly better than last year and he is walking less this year too. He’s getting a crazy high 58.8% GB and hitters are just not hitting the ball hard against him (19.6% Hard%). He’s pitching to a very low 3.18 SIERA, so we can expect his trends to continue in the right direction. In their L14, PHI has a 25.1% K rate to RHP while being able to hit for decent power and average wRC+. The Phillies have 5 lefties in their lineup and he is doing great at limiting them. They have just a .155 wOBA against Taillon and righties only have a .194. One thing that can be alarming with him is his .160 BABIP, showing he could be getting a bit lucky, but with that low SIERA, it shows that he’s still pitching great. He generates 68% GB to RHH and is striking out more at 29.4% compared to 19.5% to LHH. This lineup is pretty split neutral so I think Taillon should be able to do well here. The Phillies can always be a powerful team when they get rolling, but Taillon will look to shut them down tonight.
Zack Greinke (8.9k FD) (10.6k DK) vs SF: I like Greinke more than Anderson tonight and I will find the $1,000 more on FD and $1,100 more on DK for him tonight over Anderson. Arizona stunk last night, but I expect them to come out in full force here tonight against Blach who only seems to pitch well against the Dodgers. Can you believe that the Giants have a 27% K rate to RHP in their L14? Well, you better believe it because they do and that’s not like them in the past. Well, I’m going to take full advantage of it tonight. Grienke has an amazing 29.2% K rate this year and a 1.4% BB rate. YES, 1.4%. He’s got a SIERA of 2.57 this year and last year he was a better pitcher at home and it has looked that way this year so far too (just 1 start at home though). Ray and Corbin did well against these Giants (both being LHP), but I think Grienke can mow them down too. Being much better at home helps him here and the Giants have seen him a lot (308 ABs) and are hitting just .240 against him. He’s our top arm on the research station, and it isn’t even close, he’s also my favorite arm tonight in cash games.
Eduardo Rodriguez (7.1k FD) (7.3k DK) @ LAA: I do not like to pick on the Angels much, but we need some options tonight and I think E-Rod has upside whenever he pitches. The Angels have been AMAZING to LHP this year so he’s GPP only as the Angels have the highest wRC+ to LHP in the L14 also the lowest K rate. In 2 starts this year, he’s pitching to a 2.65 SIERA with a 35.7% K rate and limiting Hard% to just 26.1%. These are all good numbers, but he can struggle with command. The Angels roster only has 34 combined at-bats against him, and are hitting just .176 with 7 K’s. We need some type of options here tonight, though I do not love him, and would leave him for large field GPPs only tonight and hope for 25 points from him.
My Personal Rankings
- Zack Greinke (all formats)
- Jameson Taillon (all formats)
- Eduardo Rodriguez (GPP ONLY)
Sorry, there are not more options tonight, but I’m not going to write up plays that I do not like and tonight these are the only 3 that I do like. Grienke is my lead dog in all formats. Keep E-Rod to GPP only and Taillon could run a little under the radar as Grienke and Chase Anderson (who I hate today) will be the chalkier guys tonight. GOOD LUCK ARMY!