Not a bad night last night! I saw a lot of army hats near the top. Army takeover was real. Tonight’s slate is much better. We have 3 games with a lot of different paths you can take via roster construction. You’ll notice the SG position has some good options tonight. Guys with 50+ point upside from prices of 7-9k. A balanced lineup approach might not be a bad idea tonight. I will have a hard time fading Giannis, but there is merit to fading both Giannis and AD to get the high upside SGs with Wall or Lillard. Here is a list of my plays with FD pricing first, then DK.
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Point Guards:
John Wall (9800/9100): His price is creeping up but that doesn’t scare me off him. The only thing Wall did well last game was his 3 point percentage. He shot the 3 extremely well but for the most part, he had a bad game yet still scored 60+. Honestly, the only thing that will stop Wall tonight from breaking into the 50 point mark again is if Bradley Beal gets NBA JAM Hot. If beal starts scorching the ball, Wall will defer to him. Otherwise, Wall will get his and is my favorite point guard tonight.
Damian Lillard (9800/9300): He didn’t have a great game and it was going to look real bad DFS wise last time out as well if he didn’t add a bunch of points late in the 4th. I said it last time and I’ll say it again. Damian Lillard and the Portland TrailBlazers rely HEAVILY on the PickNRoll. The Pelicans are one of the best teams at defending the PickNRoll. Lillard has absolutely no space to do anything off of it. I know Lillard can get hot from 35 feet and go nuts but I would much rather deploy John Wall who doesn’t need to get red hot to do work via DFS purposes. My exposure to Wall vs Lillard will be 3-1.
Rajon Rondo (6400/7100): DK is starting to catch on to Playoff Rondo. They bumped his price a bit but FD decided not to. I love him here. I think he gets up to 7500 by the time this series ends on both sites. He is a near lock for me. He has one of the best players on the planet to get assists off of. He doesn’t need to score to get fantasy points. There is no “getting hot” or “getting cold”. There is no defense to stop Rondo. Go ahead and double team him so he can get more assists. I will keep rolling him out there until he hits about 8k.
Delon Wright (4100/4500): People will chase Delon Wright via his last game. We all know he can go hot or cold at any given moment. I don’t mind him on DK, but on FD I won’t be having much of him because I want exposure to the top 3 point guards mentioned. However, if you want value at this position, he is your choice.
Honorable Mentions: Eric Bledsoe and Kyle Lowry. Bledsoe is mainly a pivot play via ownership. Lowry will be higher owned again due to price but I don’t trust him as of yet.
Shooting Guards:
Demar DeRozan (7400 on both): Believe it or not he’ll be chalky again. His price keeps baiting us. He can go off at any given moment but Toronto is so deep and has so many scoring options. I will have some DeRozan but I will be underweight versus the field. He was around 50 percent in a 4 game slate last time, and I see him being the same tonight. He will need to go off for 40+ fantasy to really start hurting us.
Khris Middleton (8400/7400): His price is much more appealing on DK. He is the same price as DeRozan seems like an easy pivot on DK. He keeps going under-owned and keeps winning people GPPs. He has 50 point upside again tonight and I will do my best to get some exposure here if I can afford it.
Jaylen Brown (6400/6000): I love him here. The Bucks wing defenders aren’t the greatest and Brown didn’t have that great of a game. He still managed 30+. He had a lot of easy buckets due to defensive breakdowns. If he gets hot from the floor he can easily get to 40.
Malcolm Brogdon (4500/4300): He is my favorite value at SG tonight. Looks like his minutes are fine and he won’t have an issue getting at least 20 for us with 30+ upside. Once he gets to 5k then I’ll start finding other plays.
Honorable Mentions: CJ McCollum and Jrue Holiday. Jrue is always a guy who wins GPPs for People. He and Middleton are the same damn dude basically in DFS. I wouldn’t be surprised if the winning lineup tonight has Middleton/Jrue. I will have some of that combo.
Small Forwards:
Giannis Antetokounmpo (11200/10600): #1 play on the board for me tonight, especially on FD where SF is super weak. I won’t overthink it here, I am close to locking him in. On DK, it would be more of a 75/25 split with AD.
Otto Porter (5600/5400): I really feel like I’m being baited here but I’m biting. I will be extremely heavy on my Otto Porter exposure tonight. He is cheap and SF is weak.
Honorable Mentions: Moore/Anunboy/Miles. OG Anunboy and CJ miles are min price as could pay dividends at super lower ownership. However, I will be pretty close to 80% Giannis/Otto. With Harkless upgraded to questionable, I am just staying away from that whole situation of him or Evan Turner. I don’t need to go there tonight.
Power Forwards:
Anthony Davis (12700/11400): It comes down to AD vs Giannis tonight. I don’t see how you can fit both without destroying your roster. I will have close to 80 percent Giannis and 20 percent AD. Might even move to 90/10 by lock time. On DK though I think you can go 50/50 due to position diversity. If you only run 1 lineup on DK, I’d lean Giannis.
Nikola Mirotic (8000/7600): Last game I really was all about fading Mirotic. The game theory was spot on but he still managed to get a 50 burger via blocks and steals. He came out cold against Aminu’s Defense. Started 0/4. The Beardless Wonder just continues to find a way. I feel comfortable fading AD since I can just grab Mirotic for much cheaper. I won’t make the same mistake again by having hardly any exposure to Mirotic. He will be making my lineups tonight.
Serge Ibaka (6100/5600): IBLOCKA!!! Love him here. Playoff Ibaka? Not sure that’s a thing but he is going to gather another Double Double tonight. He continues to get open looks from 3 and will continue to knock those down. If he adds blocks and steals he will flirt with 40+ fantasy points.
Marcus Morris (5500/5800): He is going to see 30+ minutes again tonight and the Celtics rely heavily on him, especially late on the shot clock. They run a lot of plays for him and he will have a ton of opportunities tonight.
Al-Farouq Aminu (4800/5100): His price is drawing me in big time here. The DS and other optimizers will be pushing him into lineups and rightfully so. He is going to see 30+ minutes tonight with the potential to get you 40+. Portland NEEDS him to step up.
Markieff Morris (6000/5800): I like his brother a bit more tonight but Markieff is balling as well. I don’t mind even rostering both Morris brothers tonight. He is the catalyst for Washington and they rely heavily on him to score. He put up 44 last time out. Wizards have said they need Morris to play well to win this series.
As you can see, PF is STACKED tonight with mid-tier value. You don’t have to go to AD tonight due to all the guys that have potential to get 40+. If you want to find some low owned value here that carries some risk you can go to Ed Davis and Mike Scott. I’ll have very little of them but they are Punt Value options.
Centers:
Jusuf Nurkic (8300/7000): He has stated he needs to be more aggressive. A handful of times he was basically at the basket ready to dunk and he passes it out for an open 3. Come on Nurka Nurka. Dunk the ball. You are 7 feet tall. You get the ball in the paint you dunk it, dammit! If I pay up at center tonight, he is numero uno for me.
Al Horford (8000/7300): Chase game alert. He shoots it under 10 times a game. He somehow got to the line to take 14 FTs last game. He had 2 steals and 3 blocks. That will NOT happen again. I’ll have very little Horford tonight. The Bucks will not let Al Friggin Horford beat them again.
Marcin Gortat (4300/4800): Writing up Gortat is going to give me an Ulcer but here we go. He gave Washington 28 minutes while being in foul trouble. If he gets that kind of run again tonight I can’t ignore his price. We need to find value somewhere, and here it is. Value with 30+ point upside.
Some low owned punt options will be Greg Monroe or Zach Collins. I don’t see myself going there tonight though when I can just go to Gortat.