As you guys have noticed it only takes 1 landmine really to hurt you, and 2 landmines to sink you when it is a 3 game slate. Mirotic and Winslow were fire for me. Damian and Whiteside put out that fire quickly! Let’s dive into tonight.
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Point Guards:
Terry Rozier (7800/7100): It’s time to get recognized, Terry. He is shooting 50% from 3 and taking 16 shots per game. His overall field goal percentage in the last 2 games is 46%. He is stepping up in a big way. He is playing BledShow like a fiddle. He has averaged 23 real points the last 2 games and has an offensive rating of 142. He is playing lights out and the numbers reflect that. I really like him here and he will be my highest owned PG.
Eric Bledsoe (7800/6300): This is more of a DK play. He has played like absolute crap lately and there is nothing indicating he will just magically turn it around. On DK though, how can you argue with that price? He will come out more aggressive today opening himself up to get steals. The one worry I have is foul trouble. He is shooting 12 shots per game at 36%. He has only attempted two free throws. These numbers should trend upwards considering he shot 47% from the field and averaged 4.3 free throw attempts per game during the regular season.
John Wall (10200/9300): I thought the world was going to end when he got into foul trouble last game but he pulled through. He nearly hit 50 in limited minutes. He is currently doing everything. His price has crept up over 10k on Fanduel but that won’t stop me from playing him. The only way I see Wall not getting to 50+ tonight is if Beal gets hot and takes away some of his usage. I’ll have some Wall lineups and then sprinkle Beal into my NonWall lineups.
Darren Collison (5900/5400): The nice thing about Collison is you know what you are going to get. He is going to get you 25-35 points. He also has that upside to have a blowup game if he gets a bunch of steals. This is Dipo’s show though. I like his safe floor with that potential upside to blow up via steals.
Delon Wright (4600/4500): The X-Factor. I don’t care if VanVleet is playing or not. Wright is playing extremely aggressive and that is exactly what a coach wants to see. He will continue to see 25 or so minutes. If you aren’t paying up and need salary relief – Play Delon.
Honorable Mentions: Kyle Lowry – He isn’t a bad play at all and will have a lot of ownership. The main reason I don’t like him is that I don’t see him being able to get to 50. He is a very safe option though and you can expect 25-40. This doesn’t mean I won’t have any exposure to him. It just means he isn’t my favorite option for his ownership.
The next two plays are an extreme value. George Hill and Cory Joseph. Both can sink your lineup. George Hill is absolute trash as of late. Joseph is a bit more consistent but doesn’t have Hill’s upside. Hill’s ownership should be way down after his last two games considering he was oddly chalky.
Shooting Guards:
Victor Oladipo (9800/8800): Watching Dipo is exciting. It really seems like he just moves faster than everyone else on the court. Watch and you’ll see. Last game he got into immediate foul trouble. He lost tons of minutes because of that and still managed a decent stat line. I love him here at home to ball out and take Indiana to 2-1 tonight. He scored 35 fantasy in the first half of game 1. Repeat?
Bradley Beal (7800/6700): He is only taking 14 shot attempts per game when he averaged 24 in the regular season. He is 3 for 11 from three-point range. Are you kidding me, Beal? Do you want to win? If the Wizards want to win, Bradley Beal will be an integral part of it. He got into foul trouble which destroyed his rhythm last game. Washington needs to get Beal involved early. Those shot attempts will go back to the norm of closer to 24 this game. I like Beal here as a lower owned option tonight as people will gravitate to a safer option in DeRozan.
Demar DeRozan (7900/7800): He will be your chalkier option tonight at SG and rightfully so. He has an insane usage of 29.6%. There is a lot to like here and he is safer than Beal. I will have a good amount of DeRozan tonight, and I will also have lineups pivoting off him with Beal.
Khris Middleton (8200/7300): Not a big fan of his price. It should force people off him and he will be one of the lower owned options. Middleton needs to be aggressive if the Bucks plan on winning tonight. He has GPP winning upside. His ownership is always low. The one thing that worries me is he is taking more shots per game then he did in the regular season and shooting at 64%. Those numbers are bound to regress. This is why I like Beal a bit more than Middleton tonight but I will have exposure to both.
Jaylen Brown (6800/6500): It seems like Brown’s upside is capped. He goes off in the 1st half a lot and ends up with only 30-35. His price is creeping up so I won’t have a lot of Jaylen tonight. I’d rather find salary to pay for the above-mentioned players for their 50+ point upside. Brown caps out at 40.
Honorable Mentions – Kyle Korver/JR Smith/Malcolm Brogdon are your value plays at SG. They are all capable of going for 5 or 25. I prefer Brogdon over the other two. He lost a lot of minutes last game due to turning the ball over. As long as he doesn’t do that again, he has the best chance to get to 25+.
Small Forwards: I will have some lineups featuring both LBJ and Giannis.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (11500/10600): He is my favorite play tonight. I will be playing him over Lebron in a majority of my lineups. He will be lower owned and has the same upside. The Greek Freak will not let Milwaukee lose tonight. Look for him to add blocks and steals tonight. This is a must-win for the Bucks. He is going to leave it all on the court and I see a triple-double in his future with 30+ real points.
Lebron James (12500/11800): LBJ will get his tonight but will it be enough to win a GPP? He is going to be chalky and is super expensive. He needed to have himself an insane game to hit 70 last time. It wasn’t even in the top lineup on Fanduel (Thanks Gerald Green). Nate McMillan will have a gameplan ready to limit Lebron the best he can. No way he lets LBJ single-handedly beat him. The way to beat Team Lebron is to make his team of misfits step up. With all that said, I will have about 70-30 Giannis Vs Lebron and some will have both.
Otto Porter (5600/5300): He averaged 12 shots a game in the regular season and has only attempted 8 per game in the playoffs. Look for him to shoot more. His price is still too damn cheap, and expect him to be quite chalky with how desolate SF is. He was 51% last time and scored 26. If he gets hot he can get to 40 no problem. He also always adds steals.
Bojan Bogdanovic (5400/5200): He is your best pivot off Porter. He will be lower owned but is fairly inconsistent. If he isn’t attempting a lot of 3s he won’t hit value. It all comes down to his 3 point shot. If it’s on, you reap the reward. If it’s off, you hate him.
Lance Stephenson (3800/4400): His price has come down just enough for me to feel baited into playing him. He hasn’t done much as of yet but he does have his one troll game in him. On FD at 3800, I don’t mind him. He only needs about 15-20 and you are doing ok. He does have 30 point upside if he can add some blocks or steals. I’ll have some Lance tonight.
Honorable Mentions: Kelly Oubre is a nice cheap value option. He is hit or miss though. Jayson Tatum is playable on DK, I won’t be touching him on FD. You can punt with OG or CJ miles but they don’t have the upside to hit 30. If you don’t mind the 15 or so they give you then go for it.
Power Forwards:
Serge Ibaka (6300/6000): Ibaka has been a pleasant surprise so far in the playoffs. The Iblocka train will continue to roll tonight and he is my favorite PF.
Markieff Morris (6300/5500): Washington needs Morris to win. That is all there is to it. Game 2 they got run off the court and had a crazy amount of foul trouble. Morris never got into a rhythm. Game 1 followed the game plan and he scored 44. I see more of Game 1 Morris tonight. They absolutely need him to play well to win.
Mike Scott (3500/3800): The secret is out. He is no longer a sneaky play. He will have a bunch of ownership and rightfully so. He will continue to eat into Gortat’s minutes and he can score. If Scott adds anything else to his stats he could and will easily destroy value.
Jabari Parker (4000/4400): Parker’s leash is extremely short. If he plays lazy at all or makes any mistakes, he is done. Everyone in Milwaukee knows they need Jabari to win. He has to step up. This is your BOOM or BUST option and his price is baiting me in. Don’t go here if you aren’t prepared to get a 2. He will be low owned and has 30 point upside if he sees full minutes.
Honorable Mentions: This position sucks tonight. I have no real interest in paying up for Love. I’ll have a few Love lineups just in case though. I don’t want to pay for Nance at his Price Point. Sabonis is a sneaky option tonight. He will be lower owned. I’ll take a shot or two with him.
Centers:
Al Horford (8300/7200): Too expensive for me on FD. I do like him over on DK. He won’t see that kind of performance he had in game 1 where he shot 14 FTs. Game 2 is more his wheelhouse. 30-35 points is the norm for Horford. That isn’t enough for 8300 but ok for 7200.
Jonas Valanciunas (6000/5900): Love Jval tonight. He will literally feast if Gortat doesn’t play much just like he did last time. He is your top choice tonight.
Myles Turner (6000/5600): I prefer Jval here tonight but I will have exposure here as well. Turner plays massive minutes compared to Jval. I’ll have some Turner but for the most part, I am going Jval over him.
Tyler Zeller (3500/2800): Henson is doubtful and Zeller will see 20-25 minutes. He is awesome value, especially on DK. I love him here to step up. He runs the floor well and will have plenty of opportunities for putbacks. Coach Prunty has been adamant that the Bucks need to secure defensive rebounds. If Zeller plays well early, he could eat all of Henson’s minutes. For his price, I see him ideally getting anywhere from 15-25. I can take that.
Honorable Mentions: You can take a shot with Greg Monroe if you’d like. He won’t see many minutes but can produce in bunches. If you are a glutton for punishment and like burning money – look no further than Marcin Gortat. I’ll have one Gortat lineup so I can monitor how bad he is doing…or I could just scroll down to the bottom of the standings and find him.