Hello Army! The first break of the season is over and we’re back for some more racing at Texas Motor Speedway (TMS). Be sure to check out the Xfinity preview article to get up to speed on some of the basics. As I mentioned, this is a pretty standard and predictable track. This is great news for us because it’s all systems go this week; cash ladders, single entry GPP, and multi-entry GPPs are all viable here. Let’s build up those bankrolls!
Texas Motor Speedway
Since this is a cookie-cutter track, it means that unlike the unique tracks (i.e. Auto Club and Martinsville) we have a lot more tracks we can cross-reference for relevant data to give ourselves an edge (i.e. Kansas, Las Vegas, Kentucky, and Chicago). The biggest difference this week will be the different fields between the two races, so let’s dive right in.
Xfinity My Bariatric Solutions 300
Looking at the last five races, four of them had a single dominator. All were Monster Energy (ME) drivers. In the fifth race the lead laps were split between four drivers, all of which were ME drivers. You’ve probably picked up on the trend here, so your focus should be on Kevin Harvick and Ryan Blaney as potential dominators. There are a few Xfinity regulars who could fit the bill, such as Christopher Bell and Justin Allgaier. Either way, I’d recommend two at the very most, with a single dominator lineup being a viable option in all formats.
We’ll know more after qualifying, but for now, take a look at how the last five races played out:
The top graph is the one from the preview article and the other two break things down some more. Study the numbers a bit; there are a few things you should notice.
First, there’s a very sharp drop-off for the back half of the field. This is due to the fact that those cars are generally slow and simply can’t keep up on the long green-flag runs we see here. This means that unless one of the faster cars qualifies poorly, place differential won’t be as critical here like we see in some other races (or the ME races where the slower cars have a better chance of moving up). Finishing position will, as usual, reign supreme. You’ll also notice that the vast majority of lead and fastest laps are going to the two drivers up front. This is where you’ll want to look for dominators!
Xfinity drivers
Next, let’s take a look at how the Xfinity regulars have done at the other two 1.5-mile races this season:
Current salary, average DKFP of the two races, and value based on current salary
Please note that Cole Custer was spun around and crashed near the beginning of the Atlanta race which makes his numbers here look a lot worse than they would be otherwise
In the preview article, I hinted at a “Driver X” in the $6k range. Can you see who it is? That’s right, Spencer Gallagher. He’s performed well at every race this year and has a solid history at TMS with 14th and 15h place finishes (starting 16th at both). He would have earned 32 and 30 DKFP at those races which would be a 4.7x and 4.4x value. He’s a fine play in all formats, and if he were to start 20th or worse, he could easily find his way into the perfect lineup. I have a lot of interest in him, and the only way that changes is if he qualifies way too high.
You can also see that Vinnie Miller has been a pretty good cheap/punt option. He didn’t do very well at Phoenix, but that’s a much different track than TMS. He’s done well at all of the longer races this season, and check out his career Xfinity stats at 1.5-mile long tracks:
While he didn’t do all that well at Chicago (2017), he showed promise at Atlanta (a more difficult track than the others) and was in the perfect lineup at Las Vegas. He could very well be one of (if not the) best punts again this week. If qualifying turns out favorably, we could very well see Harvick, Gallagher, and Miller all in the winning lineup together.
Another one of my favorite potentials this week is Ryan Preece. He’s had plenty of experience driving slower cars, but here are his 1.5-mile performances in the same car he’ll be driving this week:
Nice numbers overall, especially the driver rating. He should be a solid option in all formats, especially if he doesn’t qualify very well. If he were to get the pole he could very well get a nice chunk of lead laps before one of the bigger names takes over, which would make him an interesting GPP co-dominator option. Remember, he’s driving the #18 Joe Gibbs Racing car this week. The car itself will be one of the fastest in the field, and he’s shown he has the skill to put it to use. Don’t sleep on him.
Other Xfinity drivers
Looking up top, Elliott Sadler is your safest cash option but doesn’t have a GPP-winning ceiling. Your all-format plays are Christopher Bell and Justin Allgaier, but for GPP I’d rather take Bell because his ceiling is the highest without needing any lead laps (both have very solid floors for cash games). I’ll be more be interested in Allgaier for GPP if he wins the pole (for an early chunk of lead/fastest laps) because once Harvick or Blaney have the lead, they probably aren’t giving it up.
For the other mid-range guys, the ones who stand out are Brandon Jones and Ryan Truex. Both have been impressive and are out-performing some of the guys who are priced higher than they are. Ross Chastain is also off to a fairly good start to the season, but his floor is a little iffy so I’d probably lean GPP for him unless he starts 20th or worse. All three can be looked at for use in all formats.
Kaz Grala and Austin Cindric both have GPP-winning upside if they’re on their game, but also carry risk so I can’t recommend them for cash. Dylan Upton is kind of in the same boat, so we’ll need to see how he’s doing in practice before we can make up our minds about him.
Monster Energy O’Reilly Auto Parts 500
You should notice that there are quite a few more laps at the Monster Energy race. In four of the last five races, we had a primary and secondary dominator, while the fifth race had a single dominator. Like most 1.5-mile tracks, I’d recommend two dominators for both cash and GPP, with single dominator lineups being viable for GPP.
It’s mostly the same here as it is in the Xfinity race; it’s typically a fairly safe race with 12.3% of laps run under caution. The biggest difference is that DKFP is a bit more balanced throughout the field instead of being more concentrated towards the front. This is because the slower cars have a better chance of moving up, and the “name brand” drivers start in the rear more frequently in the ME races than they do in the Xfinity ones. Take a look at this chart to get an idea:
The lead/fastest laps are mostly the same though, with the majority of them coming from the front-runners. If a non-dominator gets the pole, however, you can safely fade them without thinking too hard about it (like when Austin Dillon had the pole here in 2016). If one of the typical studs/dominators starts up front, you can pretty much just lock them in for cash.
Monster Energy drivers
Your typical 1.5-mile heroes are in play here; Martin Truex Jr, Kevin Harvick lead the way while Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Joey Logano, and Ryan Blaney and all have the capability of dominating this race. Jimmie Johnson was the king of this track, so he certainly deserves a look as well, even if only in GPP format.
It’ll mostly depend on how qualifying/practice looks, but Truex Jr and Harvick are your most likely candidates with the others serving as GPP pivot candidates. Truex Jr and Harvick have by far the best average running position over the last five races, at 4.2 and 5.2 respectively. Keep an eye on practice times, Slack, and the research station to help narrow down your choices.
Several drivers had a price reduction this week, with the most notable being Aric Almirola (-$600), Ricky Stenhouse Jr (-$400), Kyle Busch (-$600), Joey Logano (-$400), Jimmie Johnson (-$400), and Kasey Kahne (-$500). A few had a noticeable increase as well: Ty Dillon (+$800), Paul Menard (+$500), and Darrell Wallace (+$400) were the biggest jumpers.
Here’s a look at the regular Monster Energy drivers at 1.5-mile tracks so far this year:
While the numbers are a little skewed by there only being two 1.5-mile races, most of the drivers deserve to be about where are at. The biggest exceptions would be Elliott and Kurt, as they’re driving better than this chart would lead you to believe. Aside from them, most drivers are fairly close to their season average at non-plate races. Also, keep in mind that Harvick’s average is so high because of him dominating the Atlanta and Las Vegas races. Whoever winds up being the primary dominator of this race has the potential to score that much.
Our mid-range options will be about the same as they have been, with Almirola and Bowyer being underpriced for how fast they are. Ryan Newman and Paul Menard remain decent options as well. Darrell Wallace and William Byron are both fairly cheap, though they’ve had some struggles at 1.5-mile tracks so far this year. If nothing else, consider some exposure to them in GPP as the car and talent are both there to make a decent run.
Chris Buescher is back on the menu as a cheap/punt option. Kasey Kahne could easily see another low 20’s finish, so keep him as an option if he has another poor qualifying effort. Ty Dillon is also an option, but his big price increase certainly lowers his potential value. David Ragan can finish just as well as Ty could and comes at a $1,000 discount.
Log watchers will want to jump all over AJ Allmendinger this week, but we know his 8th place finish last week was due to him being a very good short track driver. Unless there’s an onslaught of crashes, don’t expect him to repeat that performance or come anywhere near it. Jamie McMurray has also seen a huge price reduction compared to last year, but he’s struggled a lot and nobody is rostering him. The best time to jump on him will be if/when he qualifies poorly. If he’s anywhere in the top 15 or so, I’d suggest looking elsewhere.
That’ll about do it for now. Qualifying and practice times will be important as always, so keep an eye on them and the research station. I’ll have my picks for both races on race day (right after qualifying for Xfinity and race day morning for ME), and there will be plenty of discussion in Slack. See you guys there!