On today’s dive I am taking a more shallow look game by game at the line matchups. I will touch on Defense and Goalie briefly at the end. All the stats used are coming from the Members only Research Station at dfsarmy.com. Player stats are based on shots on goal and blocked shots (SOGBS) and goals ( G), assists( A), and Last 5 games Defense vs Position(DVP) . They don’t include any bonuses for shorthanded or powerplay goals. We will also be looking at matchup and production information from leftwinglock.com
In examining players to roster, we also need to look at each team’s Corsi for CF) and against (CA), looking for good spots. The Corsi numbers are for the last 3 weeks, not season long (what have you done for me lately). Implied team totals ( ITT) which comes from the Vegas lines and means their implied goals scored tonight based on the money line is another indicator to look at.. We are looking for teams whose ITT is above or very close to 3.
Detroit at Columbus
Detroit’s top 2 lines have been leaky. Columbus’ top two lines have been hot. They match up with each other 85% of the time. Feel free to take players from either line. There is no PP overlap between the lines, but perhaps pairing 1 or 2 forwards with a Dman might be the way to go.
Rangers at New Jersey
Rangers have changed up their lines since the last meeting, so hard to get specific about matchups. The Rangers top two lines have given up 8 goals in their last 10, and NJ 1 matched up 70 % against NY1 and 2 last time out. Hall is always in play, but looks like a good spot for him.
Philadelphia at Islanders
This game has an o/u of 6.5 and is leaning to the over. Phi1 has matched up against NY 1 and 2 80 % of the time last time out, and those lines have given up 8 goals combined in the last 10. Phi2 has only matched up against them about 15% of the time. This sounds like a great spot for PHI 1 tonight. Phi2 not so much. NY1 matched up 25% against Phi 1 who has been leaky giving up 5 goals lately. This game has the potential to blow up, and for GPP purposes the top 2 lines of both teams are in play. For cash i would be sticking with Phi 1.
Nashville at Florida
Florida 1 has given up 6 goals in the last 10, and Flo2 4. Nashville 1 matched up 60% against those lines last time out. I would say they have a good chance of getting on the scoreboard tonight. While Flo 1 and 2 are great offensively, i am not sure i trust them in cash tonight against a Nashville team trying to play solid going into the playoffs.
Winnipeg at Montreal.
Winnipeg is on the back end of a road back to back. They won 6-5 last night and I am sure the coach will be expecting a better defensive effort tonight. The Jets are giving some players a “rehab” day off. So Buff draws back in, along with the NHL debut of Dman S. Nicu. Neither team really has anything to play for. The lines are very different from their last meeting early in the season. However Mtl1 has given up 6 goals recently, so we can assume Wpg1 will try and take advantage of that. Wpg 2 has cooled off and are GPP only for me. Steve Mason is back in net for the Jets tonight, but i am not sure that makes any Mtl player cash safe.
Boston at Tampa Bay
Tampa will be looking for revenge after losing in boston last week, as these teams fight it out for the division and conference titles. Tb1 has given up 7 goals recently, the worst on the slate. Bos 1 matched up vs Tb1 65 % last time out, but don’t have last change tonight. Bos 1 has given up 4 lately to lead Bos, so we still might see a strength vs strength match up. Both first lines are worth looking at in all formats today.
Arizona at Calgary.
Zzzzzzzzzzz even though its close, i am not sure how Calgary is the favorite here. About the only thing i can see is that Ari1 has given up 6 goals and Ari 4 5 goals in the last ten. Cal 1 is worst for them having given up 4 goals. Someone has to win, but no one screams cash safe in this group.
Vegas at Vancouver
I expect Van to come out hard as part of a send off for the Sedins, following their retirement announcement. I am not sure that will help them though. Van scoring is limited. Van1 has only given up 4 goals to be worst on the team. Veg1 has to be on the radar thought for tonight. If he can get there, Karlsson winning the goal story title would be an incredible story. Wont surprise me if he gets one here.
Dallas at SanJose
Dallas has to be desperate as a loss tonight will eliminate them from the playoffs. Neither team has been noticeably leaky lately, so I am expecting a lower scoring game. Looking at matchups data didn’t provide me any great insights, tho with his shot volume and goals Kane should be in consideration.
Wing-Atkinson, Hall, Giroux, Wheeler, Marchand Kane
Value wing-Jenner, Vanek, Konecny, Byron
Centre-Scheifele, Bergeron, Stamkos, Pavelski
Value Centre-Johnanson, Drouin, Dubois
Defense
Its seems there is many options to look at on D. My initial thoughts are to pay down at D tonight, but players like Jones Gostisbehere and Provorov are in great spots, and Ellis is always i guy i consider, and Burns and Headman cant be forgotten. Some interesting value plays that caught my eye though include Goligoski, Theodore, Pionk, Pulock and Petry.
Goalies
Bobrovsky has to be your first consideration as a -241 favorite playing at home. Kinkaid is another big home favorite who will give you some cash savings, and Fleury on the road in Vancouver might be worth considering.
Mason for Wpg might be an interesting GPP move, along with Raanta or Mzerak.
This will all be discussed through the day in the VIP only Slack Chat. That part alone is worth the membership at dfsarmy.com
Good luck tonight.
JD