Welcome back to another Saturday of UFC fights. Hopefully, this week will be a lot less eventful leading up to the fights than last week. This is a 14 fight card which, is larger than most weeks. I don’t mind a larger fight card, because I hope that will spread out ownerships. I think a big key to this week is identifying who to fade (or fights to fade) as well as fighters we want to target. Don’t forget to become a VIP if you aren’t already. We will have Domination Station which already helped some members take down 1st in tournaments last weekend. We will also have our MMA Research Station up as well. Another perk of being a VIP is our Slack Chat where you will find some of the best DFS MMA minds discussing this card. Last and certainly not least is our VIP only podcast. All these features are included as well as our other great content in other sports. Consider grabbing a DFS Army VIP Membership today!
Before we get started I wanted to congratulate a couple DFS Army Members on big wins on last weeks slate. VIP members Snakepliskin69 and Shaptown88 both tied for 1st place in the MMA $150k Uppercut on Draftkings winning $2178.57 each!
In addition, we had another massive six figure win this past weekend this time in PGA. Congratulations to DFS Army VIP Member super_splashbro for taking down 1st place in the FanDuel $500k Thu PGA Golden Eagle for a cool $100,000. More life changing money won by DFS Army Members this year!
And now on to this weeks Forslund’s Full Mount.
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Sanders (-485) 9.3k vs Williams (+385) 6.9k
Sanders is solid overall. He is a decent striker with solid power. Williams is a decent striker with big power. Williams main issue is he starts off very fast but, he only has about 1 round in his gas tank. If Sanders is able to withstand this initial onslaught it’s his fight to lose. Sanders is playable in all formats. I am still slightly hesitant to use him in cash. Williams is only a GPP punt at best. I only suggest using him in tournaments you are running 20+ lineups in (even then only have him in 1-2). In short, Sanders is viable anywhere. I personally am still undecided on my cash lineup. I will have exposure to him in tournaments for sure.
Lopez (-130) 8.5k vs Perez (+110) 7.7k
Lopez is a solid striker with good takedowns (TD’s). He is aggressive and a good wrestler. Perez is decent overall. He is an ok striker with decent movement. This fight I only will have exposure to in GPP’s. Vegas likes this fight to go to a decision so, just be aware it might not have the best fantasy value. My preferred play is Lopez. While he lands at a slightly lower rate (2.74 SS’s to Perez at 3.59 SS’s) he has the ability to accumulate points through his wrestling (2.72 TD’s per fight). I will most likely have some small exposure to both in GPP’s.
Bhullar (-400) 9.2k vs Wieczorek (+325) 7k
Bhullar is a former Olympic wrestler. He also has solid TD’s. Wieczorek isn’t really good anywhere. He is an ok wrestler with poor TD defense. All of this put together makes Bhullar a solid GPP (also in strong consideration for me in cash). I am fading Wieczorek. There are other dogs above and below him that are stronger plays than him. In short, it’s Bhullar or a pass for me.
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Lima (-115) 8k vs Okami (-105) 8.2k
Lima is a decent striker with ok TD’s. Okami is solid overall. He is a decent striker and is solid in the clinch. This is a GPP only fight for me. My preferred play is Lima. He currently has line value with odds and is the younger more active fighter. I will say 1 thing. Just because both fighters prices are similar don’t feel like you need to force these 2 in your lineups. I am only considering either of these 2 in contests I am max entering. I think this is a fight that’s easily fadable if you are doing the 3-entry max. Once again Lima is my preferred play.
Dobson (-105) 8.1k vs Mueller (-115) 8.1k
Dobson is an ok striker with decent power. Mueller is an aggressive striker. She has decent elbows and decent kicks. This is definitely a fadable fight. If I had to choose someone it would be Mueller. She is the more aggressive fighter and she lands at a higher rate. Not a fight I am dying to target in general.
Burns (-610) 9.4k vs Moret (+455) 6.8k
Burns is an ok striker with a good ground game. He also has solid Jiu-Jitsu. Moret is taking this fight on late notice. He is ok overall with a solid jab. Burns is playable in all formats if, you can afford him. He is the most expensive fighter on the card. Moret is a fade for me (unless you want to use him as a dart in 1 lineup). Not much more to say. Burns is 1 of the safest plays in general.
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Tavares (-135) 8.8k vs Jotko (+115) 7.4k
Tavares is a good striker and has solid power. He has decent kicks and good TD defense. Jotko is an ok striker with a good jab. This fight is most likely going to decision. For that reason alone Taveres is fadable. Without a finish, he likely doesn’t reach value. I don’t mind Jotko has a punt in all formats for his price. Overall Jotko is my play (not because I necessarily think he wins). Tavares is worth a shot as a pivot off of more popular fighters around him.
Reis (-130) 8.6k vs Moraga (+110) 7.6k
Reis is a decent striker and has solid leg kicks. He is also good in the clinch. Moraga is a decent striker and has ok power. He has decent kicks and is a former D1 wrestler. For the most part, this is a GPP fight for me. I think both are playable and worth using some. Moraga is also viable as a cash punt. As we get closer to the fights I will give any new thoughts on this fight in Slack.
Salikov (-185) 8.9k vs Rainey (+160) 7.3k
Salikov is a decent striker with ok leg kicks. Rainey is coming into this fight with a significant reach advantage and is taking this fight on short notice. He is a decent striker and has solid power. I like Rainey as a GPP play. He is cheap and has decent odds at his price. Salikov is definitely fadable. He doesn’t land enough especially at his price tag. This is more than likely a dog or a pass fight for me.
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Carlos Junior (-265) 9k vs Boetsch (+225) 7.2k
Carlos Junior a decent striker and has ok power. He has a good jab and decent submissions. Boetsch is a solid striker and has good power. I like Carlos Junior in all formats. Boetsch is worthy as a GPP punt. I will have fairly heavy exposure to Carlos Junior. In general, this is a solid fight to target in tournaments.
Casey (-130) 8.3k vs Waterson (+110) 7.9k
Casey is a decent striker and has solid leg kicks. She will also have a reach and size advantage. Waterson is a decent wrestler and has decent TD’s. In short, this is a striker vs grappler fight. In general, this is a good fight to have limited exposure to.
Adesanya (-275) 9.1k vs Vettori (+235) 7.1k
Adesanya is a good striker and has good power. He is a former kickboxer and has solid knees. Vettori is a decent wrestler and has ok TD’s. He is tough but does have a track record of gassing out. Adesanya is a solid tournament play. Vettori is also in play in tournaments as well as a cash punt. I like the idea of targeting both fights to an extent in GPP’s.
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Oliveira (-200) 8.7k vs Condit (+170) 7.5k
Oliveira is taking this fight on short notice. He is a solid striker and has good knees. He has decent TD’s and ok submissions. Condit is an ok striker. I love Oliveira in all formats. Condit is fadable here. I may have a small amount of him if running 20+ lineups. Overall I will have a healthy dose of Oliveira and a touch of Condit.
Poirier (-140) 8.4k vs Gaethje (+120) 7.8k
Let’s just get this out of the way first. I am locking these two in my cash lineup stack. Poirier is a good striker and has good power. Gaethje is a good striker and has good leg kicks. He also lands at a very high rate (9.5 SS’s). In general, in tournaments, I will have 100% exposure to this fight. My preferred play currently is Poirier. But I wouldn’t hate the idea of targeting Gaethje more. Just be sure you have a very strong dose of both fighters.
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