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Forslund’s Full Mount – UFC Fight Night 128 – DFS MMA Breakdowns for DraftKings

Hello again for another Saturday night UFC card.  This week we have a 13 fight card and is pretty solid top to bottom.  After this, we won’t have another card until May 12th.  I think this is a great card for both cash and Gpp contests.  Speaking of GPP’s, if you are a VIP be sure you are taking full advantage of our MMA Research Station.  Plus we also have the Domination Station optimizer for MMA as well.  If that’s not enough for you there is more!  We have our Slack Chat where you can hop in and talk about the card plus it’s great to be in once the fights start.  Last and certainly not least we have our exclusive MMA podcast with Geek and Myself.  Another reminder, don’t forget to play some cash games as well.  We have been crushing it lately.  I like to utilize the 80-20 rule (80% of my bankroll for a card in Cash games and 20% in GPP’s).  I know I preach it weekly but, it’s a great way to maintain and build your bankroll.  

Before we get started I wanted to congratulate a couple DFS Army Members on big wins on earlier this month. VIP members Snakepliskin69 and Shaptown88 both tied for 1st place in the MMA $150k Uppercut on Draftkings winning $2178.57 each!

In addition, we had another huge win this week in NBA on FanDuel. Congratulations to DFS Army VIP Member bryan1414 on this $25,000 1st place finish in the $125k Wed NBA Shot! One of many huge wins by DFS Army members this NBA Season!

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And now, this week’s Forslund’s Full Mount.

Martin (-255) 8.8k vs Nakamura (+215) 7.4k

Martin is solid overall.  He is an ok grappler and a decent striker.  Nakamura is a veteran.  He is an ok striker and has decent leg kicks.  He is a solid grappler and has decent submissions.  This is a GPP only fight for me.  Martin is a fairly heavy favorite here but, Vegas likes this to go to decision.  That makes it hard for me to see Martin reaching or exceeding value in a win.  Nakamura is viable as a GPP punt.  Overall this is the 1st fight so, I will not be heavily targeting this fight.  Both fighters are worth using in a few lineups.

Simon (-160) 8.7k vs Dvalishvili (+140) 7.5k

Simon is taking this fight on short notice.  He is a good striker with good leg kicks.  He has good power and throws good combinations.  Dvalishvili is a good wrestler and a solid grappler.  Both of these 2 have only fought once in UFC.  What we do know is they both landed a ton of takedowns.  I have a pretty strong opinion on this fight. If you want to see my thoughts I will be giving them in Slack and on our VIP Pod.

Ladd (-160) 8.5k vs Smith (+140) 7.7k

Ladd is an ok wrestler with good takedowns.  She is a young fighter so, she isn’t the best striker but she is decent.  Smith is a solid striker and has very good output (7.5 significant strikes per minute).  She likes to be aggressive but, at times that can lead her open to getting hit.  This is a fight I will only be targeting in GPP’s.  There are 2 likely scenarios that happen in this fight.  One is Ladd will be able to land TD’s and use her heavy grappling to dictate the fight.  Two Smith’s high output striking is too much for Ladd and she will control fight that way.  Either this fight will likely go to decision.  For that reason, I like Smith for the salary savings slightly more.  Overall I will have some exposure to both fighters in tournaments.

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Anderson (-130) 8.3k vs Cummins (+110) 7.9k

Anderson is a good grappler and is athletic.  He has a decent jab and is strong.  Cummins is a good striker and has decent power.  He is also a solid grappler.  Both of these 2 have suspect chins.  Which right away screams GPP.  I think Anderson is going to be fairly popular in all formats.  Which in turn wants me to have some exposure to Cummins.  Another thought here is that they cancel each others wrestling out.  If that’s the case this could be a slow-moving fight.  Vegas likes this fight to go to decision.  In short, you can use either in GPP’s some.  But, I don’t hate the idea of fading this fight.

Chagas (-115) 8k vs Bahadurzada (-105) 8.2k

Chagas is a good striker and has good leg kicks.  Bahadurzada is an ok striker and has decent power.  I love attacking this fight in tournaments.  Both are priced almost identically on DK.  Unlike the Anderson/Cummins fight, Vegas likes this to end inside the distance.  Both fighters have good output and whoever wins will more than likely put up a good score. If I had to pick I would say Chagas.  Either way, I will have a good amount of exposure to this fight in tournaments.

Bibulatov (-310) 9.4k vs Sasaki (+255) 6.8k

Bibulatov is a solid striker and a solid wrestler.  He has good takedowns and is good all-around.  Sasaki will have a reach advantage.  He has ok submissions and poor takedown defense.  Bibulatov is the most expensive fighter on DK but, he has dropped down to having the 3rd best odds.  That makes him somewhat overpriced.  This fight is most likely not ending inside the distance.  Another thing to consider is the last time Bibulatov was a heavy favorite he was finished in the 1st round.  Bibulatov is playable in all formats.  I think he is a better cash play than Gpp personally.  He is fairly safe for a win but, if the fight goes to decision he might not reach value.  Sasaki is worth throwing in 1 lineup as a why the hell not kind of play. Bibulatov is favored for a reason.  

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LaFlare (-153) 8.6k vs Garcia (+133) 7.6k

LaFlare is a decent striker and a solid wrestler.  He is good in the clinch and has good cardio.  Garcia is an ok striker with decent power.  He also has decent takedowns.  This is a GPP only fight for me.  I don’t love either fighter a ton in their price range. Laflare is my preferred play of the 2.  I will have limited exposure to both.  Overall this is a fight you could fade (especially in 3-entry max contests).

Hooker (-340) 9.2k vs Miller (+280) 7k

Hooker is a good striker with decent power.  He also has solid knees.  Miller is a UFC veteran. He is a decent striker with good leg kicks.  Looking at the odds Vegas likes this to go to decision.  This makes Hooker a GPP play on for me.  In a decision win he isn’t reaching value.  For Miller, this squarely puts him in play for cash for me.  Even in a loss, he should score 20-30 points.  He might be chalky for cash but, in this instance, I don’t care he allows you to pay up for the hi higher priced favorites in your lineup

Sterling (-120) 8.1k vs Johns (+100) 8.1k

Sterling is a good grappler.  He is a decent striker and has good leg kicks.  Johns is a solid striker and has good cardio.  He is a decent grappler and has good submissions.  Both of these fighters are in play for tournaments.  My preferred play is Johns.  He has more paths to victory and Sterling is coming off a huge KO from his last fight. It’s worth keeping in eye on the odds as we get closer to Saturday.  If Johns becomes a decent favorite I don’t mind him in cash either.  Overall a fight you should have some exposure to in GPP’s.

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Santos (-185) 8.9k vs Branch (+160) 7.3k

Santos is a good striker and has good power.  He has solid leg kicks as well.  Branch is a decent striker and has decent takedowns.  He is a decent wrestler and has decent submissions.  I like Santos in all formats.  Branch is in play for me as a GPP punt.  

Willis (-335) 9.3k vs Sherman (+275) 6.9k

Willis is a good striker and has decent power.  Sherman is a decent striker with ok leg kicks.  Worth noting this is a heavyweight fight so anything can happen.  I like Willis in all formats.  Sherman is a tournament punt at best (or fade).  It’s fairly simple.  Lock Willis in cash games and feel free to use him a solid amount in GPP’s.  Sherman has zero head movement and is essentially a human punching bag.  Again this is heavyweights so anything can happen in 1 punch.  Overall I will have a number of lineups with Santos.

Edgar (-235) 9k vs Swanson (+195) 7.2k

Edgar is a good striker and has solid takedowns.  Swanson is an ok striker with decent power.  Edgar is coming into this fight having been KO’d for the 1st time in his career 7 weeks ago. That makes me hesitant to use him in cash.  I do like him as a GPP play.  Swanson is in play as a GPP punt play.  

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Lee (-158) 8.4k vs Barboza (+138) 7.8k

Lee is a good wrestler and has solid takedowns.  He is a good grappler and has solid ground and pound.  Barboza is a good striker and has solid leg kicks.  He also has good cardio.  In cash, you can stack this fight in cash contests.  I also don’t mind just playing 1 of them either.  In tournaments, I will have 100% exposure to this fight. Whoever wins will put up a solid score.  In summary, both fighters are playable in all formats.

Remember to try out our brand new Domination Station for MMA for this card and join us in the Slack ChatGood Luck Army and enjoy the break!

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