After two long weeks off, we finally have another Xfinity race on our hands! We’ve been crushing these races and I’m very excited for this weekend. As usual, we’ll have our research station up and the Domination Station lineup optimizer ready to roll out shortly after qualifying is finished. There may be a small window of time between qualifying and the green flag, but our members have the luxury of not scrambling and trying to throw a bunch of lineups together. If you’re not part of our group yet, consider signing up here. NASCAR, MLB, NBA, MMA, PGA; we have tools for everything. 2018 is off to a great start and it only looks to get better! Take a look at some of our recent Xfinity winners:
Phoenix – three DFS Army members tied for first place in the Beast
Auto Club/Fontana (and some MMA) – we took down several GPPs for both sports
Texas Motor Speedway
We head down to Texas for some warmer weather and good racing! Races at this 1.5-mile long track are generally pretty safe here, with an average of only 13.1% of laps completed under caution over the last five venuses. Of those, four were mostly led by a single dominator. When that happens, we get long green flag runs with the leader putting most cars down multiple laps. The name of the game here will be finding drivers who can keep pace and finish strongly. Here’s an example why that’s important:
Average numbers by starting position over the last five races at TMS:
Specific drivers, roster construction strategy, and a lot more data will be broken down for our members in my weekly VIP article, Slack, and the research station. For now, let’s take a look at some of the drivers who will be racing this weekend:
Monster Energy drivers
These are the four Monster Energy drivers that we’ll see in the Xfinity race this week;
Kevin Harvick ($13,800) – Harvick has been hot this year, won’t have any high-tier stud competition this week, has the second most laps led & wins here all-time, and will be driving one of the fastest cars in the field.
Ryan Blaney ($10,700) – Blaney will be some of Harvick’s best competition, but he’ll be in for a fight. Things could get a little interesting if Blaney gets the pole and Harvick starts a bit farther back though, so keep an eye out for that situation.
Jamie McMurray ($10,500) – McMurray is a hair cheaper but doesn’t have near as much of the ceiling that Blaney does, though he has a decent history here and should have a fairly safe floor.
Ty Dillon ($10,300) – Same as McMurray but with a slightly better history at this track.
Xfinity drivers
Elliott Sadler ($10,100) – Nothing new here; he’s expensive and his ceiling is directly tied to how far back he starts. If you can afford him, however, you won’t find a safer (non-dominator) option for your cash lineups; his floor this season (40 DKFP) is higher than many other drivers’ ceilings.
Justin Allgaier ($9,800) – As the only Xfinity driver to dominate a race this year, Allgaier has shown he has both an elite floor and ceiling. If he starts up front, he’ll look to repeat his Phoenix performance.
Christopher Bell ($9,400) – They still haven’t priced Bell up, but hey, I’ll take it. His 89 fastest laps (49 at 1.5-mile tracks) this season are by far the most among the regular Xfinity drivers. The next closest is Allgaier with 58 (14 at 1.5-mile tracks). He’s a threat to be in the winning lineup starting anywhere in the field, even if he doesn’t lead a single lap.
Tyler Reddick ($9,100) – Reddick has had a few not-so-great qualifying runs this season which has been great for us. He doesn’t lead many laps but gets a decent amount of fast laps and has four top 10 (one top 5) finishes on the year. If he qualifies poorly again, be sure to have some exposure to him.
Matt Tifft ($9,000) – Tifft has had three top 10s in a row at TMS and has been doing pretty well in his new car so far this year. Be careful if he starts too high though, as he doesn’t have dominator potential.
Ryan Preece ($8,200) – Just like at Fontana, Preece will be driving the (very fast) #18 Joe Gibbs Racing car again at TMS. He’s driven this car at two other 1.5-mile tracks and was no stranger to success, performing well enough that he would have scored 40 and 46 DKFP.
Brandon Jones ($8,000) – Jones has had a nice start to the season. His track history at TMS doesn’t look stellar, but he’s in a better car now. He’s actually averaged the 7th most DKFP out of all of the full-time Xfinity drivers (4th most at 1.5-mile tracks), and we get a $400 discount on him compared to Fontana.
Ross Chastain ($7,200) – He’s reliably finished in the high-teens all season long, which isn’t super exciting on its own, but if he qualifies poorly he’ll look to return nice value once again.
Driver X ($6,XXX) – I hate masking plays, but this is one I have to keep to our members. There’s a driver in this price range that simply does not belong there, and I’ll be sure that our members take full advantage of that. He’s returned the 4th highest value at 1.5-mile tracks this year, and only seven other drivers have a higher average finish (at non-plate races).
Vinnie Miller ($5,700) – Vinnie can’t qualify worth a darn but at non-plate races, he’s finishing – on average – 7 positions higher than he’s starting. In fact, he’s yet to finish worse than he’s started and has also been in the perfect lineup at one of the 1.5-mile tracks this year. If you need a good punt, look his way.
That’s all for now! If you’re new to NASCAR, are struggling, or just need a refresher after the two-week long break we had, be sure to check out my beginner’s and intermediate guides. And of course, if you’re not yet a member and you want to come join us for the more in-depth discussions we have in our Slack channels, along with access to all of our tools/resources, you can do so here. Don’t forget to use promo code NILLY to lock in that 10% savings!