Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
Today
Let’s take a look at the MLB slate for Friday night. The teams with the highest implied run total are the: New York Yankees (5.19), Colorado Rockies (5.08), and the St. Louis Cardinals (5.00). The highest priced hitters on the slate are Mookie Betts, Charlie Blackmon, and Kris Bryant. The highest priced pitchers on the slate are Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, and Justin Verlander.
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Free Squares
- Chris Archer P TBR ($8,800)
- Chris Archer and the Tampa Bay Rays will take on the Minnesota Twins at home tonight. The Twins have an implied total sitting at right around 3.56 runs and the Rays are currently -126 favorites. Tropicana Park was the 24th best hitters park last season. Chris Archer had the following stats on the season last year: .326 wOBA given up to lefties, .287 wOBA given up to righties, 29.2 K%, 7.0 BB%, .325 BABIP, 39.4 Hard%, 3.44 SIERA, and a 3.35 xFIP. The Twins had the following ranks against right-handed pitching last season: 4th in BB%, 16th in K%, 6th in OPS, 13th in ISO, 5th in wOBA, and 6th in wRC+. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a projection of right around 22.68 DKFP which would be good enough for right around 2.58x value. Archer has a solid projection tonight and even though the Twins were solid vs. righties last season I think Archer is going to have a solid outing. It’s an insane pitching slate tonight but I love using Archer as an SP2 with one of the big arms tonight on Draftkings.
- Justin Bour 1B MIA ($3,000)
- Justin Bour and the Miami Marlins will take on the Milwaukee Brewers and pitcher Jhoulys Chacin on the road tonight. The Marlins have an implied total sitting at right around 4.01 runs and they are currently +145 underdogs tonight. Miller Park was the 8th best hitters park last season. Bour is likely going to be batting 4th in the order tonight. Bour had the following numbers vs. right-handed pitching last season: 11.2 BB%, 19.9 K%, .929 OPS, .252 ISO, .327 BABIP, .384 wOBA, 139 wRC+, and a 42.3 Hard%. He will face Jhoulys Chacin tonight who had the following numbers vs. lefties last season: .338 wOBA, 16.1 K%, 12.1 BB%, .276 BABIP, 5.55 xFIP, and a 33.1 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 80.682. Bour had fantastic numbers vs. righties last season and Chacin was abysmal. He gets a great matchup in a hitters park tonight and a super affordable price on Draftkings tonight.
- Gerardo Parra OF COL ($3,200)
- Gerardo Parra and the Colorado Rockies will take on the Chicago Cubs and Pitcher Kyle Hendricks at home tonight. The Rockies have an implied total sitting at right around 5.08 runs and they are currently -111 favorites. Coors Field was the best hitters park last season. Parra is likely going to be batting 2nd in the order tonight. Parra had the following numbers vs. right-handed pitching last season: 5.0 BB%, 16.5 K%, .788 OPS, .163 ISO, .320 BABIP, .333 wOBA, 88 wRC+, and a 37.2 Hard%. He will face Kyle Hendricks who had the following numbers vs. left-handed bats last season: .309 wOBA, 23.6 K%, 10.0 BB%, .288 BABIP, 4.23 xFIP, and a 34.1 Hard%. Taking a look at our Domination Station we can see that we have a DFS ARMY GRADE of 69.675. It’s the highest total on the board tonight in the best hitters park for Parra tonight. The splits may not jump out at you but Parra should see a lot of fantasy opportunities at an affordable price tonight. Load him up as a cheaper outfielder with upside tonight.
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Ultimate Free Square
We have a large slate tonight with some solid tournaments across the industry. I hope I have narrowed down some guys that we can look to target. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my ultimate free square pick, I am going to go with Justin Bour tonight! Good luck Army!
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