Oh boy. What a mess this week will be. As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.
Top Plays
Kevin Harvick – This isn’t even fun anymore. Harvick is far and away the fastest car for the FOURTH straight week. He has single, 10 lap and 15 lap speed. He’s gonna lead a bunch of laps and probably win. Super fun. I expect to see him played at 50% or more.
Now – qualifying this week was all sorts of messed up, thanks to a bunch of drivers failing inspection and thus starting at the back. This means that the “playable field” will be super small this week, and you are going to have to eat some chalk. Be prepared to tie. Here are my thoughts and opinions on the top four plays that will start towards the back.
Jimmie Johnson – JJ was one of the many drivers who did not take a qualifying lap, and will roll off 33rd. He showed some short run speed in practice, and should be inside the top 20 pretty quickly.
Chase Elliott – Chase is in the exact same boat as Jimmie, but I am not as impressed with Chase’s speed this weekend. However, he has been objectively more impressive in 2018. JJ and Chase are really a coinflip to me. I expect Chase to be slightly more chalky.
Clint Boywer – Bowyer will roll off 26th, and we know damn well he got the Kevin Harvick setup. Clint has had a pretty impressive 2018 so far, and I suspect that will continue this weekend. I think he will probably end up in the top 5, but a win will likely be a longshot. You might catch Bowyer at around 30% owned, which I will be way over on.
Denny Hamlin – Rounding out the “starting at the back” portion of our top plays is Denny Hamlin, who has shown an ability to lead in 2018. He has top ten speed and a decent track record. I think he will be neck and neck with Chase in terms of ownership.
Fades
Thanks to how chalky this week will be, I don’t think any drivers are off the table. Get a little taste of everyone to try and differentiate yourself.
Value
Daniel Suarez – Another victim of the inspection process, Suarez will roll off 30th tomorrow. Suarez tends to shine at these big sweeping racetracks, and even though he didn’t show SUPER promising speed in practice – I suspect his Joe Gibbs machine will be able to compete for a top ten pretty easily. I think he will be very very chalky, but I am comfortable going 60%+ on him.
William Byron – Byron will start on the inside of Suarez is 29th, and is in a pretty similar situation. Willy B is very good on big racetracks, and has been finishing better than he runs so far in 2018. I think Willy B will be a lot less chalky than most of the other targets at the back of the field, so play him generously.
Cole Whitt/Ross Chastain – I think you will find you need to sprinkle these guys in to round out your lineups, and I am pretty comfortable doing that. They start dead last, so they can only move foward – and with so many slow cars starting towards the front, this race is bound to get chaotic as the fast cars come forward. They should both attempt to complete all laps, and if this race is as messy as I think it will be, either could compete for a top 25.
Kasey Kahne – I have been fairly underwhelmed by Kasey Kahnes 2018 effort, so far falling short of the performance Micheal McDowell was able to turn in during the 2017 season. However, Kahne starts 34th with top 25 speed, and the fact they failed qualifying at least proves they are searching for speed. He may be a little highly owned for my liking (25 – 30%), but he has good upside.
So there it is folks. We will be talking more strategy on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good luck this week, and let’s make some cash.